Created Sun 21st Dec 2008 2:52pm PST by

kruijs [Power User]

Which of these groups will split up first?

Settled as Oasis

The band has split after yet another major falling out between the brothers. Noel posted to their website: "It's with some sadness and great relief to tell you that I quit Oasis tonight. People will write and say what they like, but I simply could not go on working with Liam a day longer."

Background:

Background: http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/other-specials/first-group-to-split/win-market

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Girls Aloud

27%

McFly

15%

Sugababes

14%

Westlife

Boyzone

Take That

Oasis

None of these before suspension

33%

Settled as Oasis on Sun 30th Aug 12:41pm PST

Activity: H$23,952
Predictions: 269
Comments: 13

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Sun 30th Aug 12:41pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 28th Aug 12pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Girls Aloud: 30%, McFly: 18%, Sugababes: 13%, Westlife: 9%, Boyzone: 7%, Take That: 4%, U2: 2%, Oasis: 2%, None of these before suspension: 15%

Action history:

Created Sun 21st Dec 2008 2:52pm PST by

kruijs [Power User]

Settlement requested Sat 29th Aug 1:50am PST by

indie1977 Level 11, Legend (H$16,536)

: Noel Gallagher has quit Oasis:
http://www.nme.com/news/oasis/47001

Suspended Sat 29th Aug 3:17am PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

Settlement requested Sun 30th Aug 11:54am PST by

indie1977 Level 11, Legend (H$16,536)

: Oasis have spilt!:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/8228053.stm

Settled as 'Oasis' Sun 30th Aug 12:41pm PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

: The band has split after yet another major falling out between the brothers. Noel posted to their website: "It's with some sadness and great relief to tell you that I quit Oasis tonight. People will write and say what they like, but I simply could not go on working with Liam a day longer."

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Predictions (269)

10 weeks ago

indie1977 Level 11, Legend (H$16,536)

predicted Oasis (H$187 at 21%)

10 weeks ago

indie1977 Level 11, Legend (H$16,536)

predicted Oasis (H$1,012 at 7%)

11 weeks ago

indie1977 Level 11, Legend (H$16,536)

predicted Sugababes (H$20 at 14%)

12 weeks ago

cyberguy Level 1, Newbie (H$93)

predicted Sugababes (H$774 at 22%)

12 weeks ago

cyberguy Level 1, Newbie (H$93)

predicted Sugababes (H$201 at 24%)

Comments (13)

oppugner Level 14, Prophet (H$112,827)

Is it a sign that I've become an old fart that I only recognize one of those names? 8:]

posted 45 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

no, its just a sign of good taste :)

posted 45 weeks ago

thomasianmangnall Level 6, Player (H$2,888)

OASIS!? When General Julius Agricola established his fort Mamuciam in AD79 one of his centrurans turned o his brother and said "Hey our Kid. We should start a band like." and thus Oasis was born and has been ever since. I feel fairly sure if Oasis split up Manchester would be distroyed.

posted 45 weeks ago

rhysoneil Level 12, Guru (H$47,919)

Sugababes probably as their album sales were 84,000 and its been out for 3 months!

posted 43 weeks ago

juicy2k9 Level 1, Newbie (H$7)

McFly or Sugababes

posted 42 weeks ago

rhysoneil Level 12, Guru (H$47,919)

GIRLS ALOUD JUST WON A BRIT!
AND ALSO SAID THIS IS THE BEGINNING!
SO I WOULDNT BET ON THEM :)

posted 37 weeks ago

oocares Level 13, Psychic (H$53,141)

If only it where U2....

posted 26 weeks ago

indie1977 Level 11, Legend (H$16,536)

Noel has left Oasis - does this mean they have split up?

posted 10 weeks ago

scary

I think half the band is a split!

posted 10 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

as long as the band exists, they haven't split up. otherwise, the Sugababes have been constantly splitting up over the last few years.

posted 10 weeks ago

oocares Level 13, Psychic (H$53,141)

Because bands constantly split and reform this question is impossible to answer....

posted 10 weeks ago

scary

@ oocares No, because the question isn't 'will they split and stay split'? if a band splits up then it pays out, what happens in the future is irrelevant.

@Kruijs - that's a good point, Oasis still exists - it will only be a band splittingup when Liam and the drummer (whoever it is at the moment) call it a day

posted 10 weeks ago

indie1977 Level 11, Legend (H$16,536)

No way they will continue without Noel. Liam would be the only original member left!

posted 10 weeks ago

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