When will the first Atlantic tropical storm / hurricane of 2009 be named?

Good tracking website
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Nothing much happening 7/19.

Look at the noaa map. See the large low pressure system forming on the African coast. The only question now is when will it get into range to become a named storm?

Sorry, I just can't resist the pun at the moment, but that is one sad looking tropical depression.

D'oh!

Whoa! Who slammed the 8/1-8/15 option up to 82% ?

Not me, but Frog just talked me right back into the 8/16 8/31. Anyone remember Andrew or Charlie??? same time.

I dunno; looks like T.S. Ana will likely be born by morning. And cici? Charley was formed on August 9th, and became a hurricane on the 11th.

don't count the chickens before they're hatched!

looks like they're hatching...

@Squig - living in the Vatican - All I know is they all come for my birthday, which is the 18th. TD2 may or may not become Ana but the one behind (I guess TD3) looks like definite trouble.

This is a good question. It's like betting on two horses that are coming down the stretch and racing against the clock.

We're remembering the 5th anniversary of Charley tomorrow. It's a good question Bucky, but our weatherman says they expect it to be Ana this afternoon or evening. It's not going to be anything (or so we say) but if it doesn't become a named storm today, it will be gone tomorrow. Down to the wire.

looks like it fizzled....

As I said before, it was one sad looking depression.

yep...on to the rest of August

Wow, did everyone jump on next week. I didn't even get a chance to look at the maps yet.

Read the new update. The cell closest to Africa is reforming with better than a 50% chance of becoming a cyclone.

OK - dumb question: is a "tropical cyclone" (the term used on the NOAA site), the same as a named "tropical storm"? That is, when a low becomes a "cyclone" it will be assigned a name? It appears that it is, but wanted to make sure. (P.S.: that's a pretty intense chart showing the developing odds!)

they name a storm when the minimum wind speed passes a defined threshold hence the Safir Scale

@jeopardy: a tropical cyclone is any large-scale spinning tropical system with closed circulation and convection at the center. Such a tropical system both acquires a name and becomes a tropical storm when it has sustained winds of 39 mph or more at the center (and it becomes a hurricane when those winds reach 74 mph).

Yeah, 90L is looking pretty good on Meteosat-8 this afternoon, so it's got a great chance. However, 02L, which had been fizzling, is actually trying to stage a comeback with some pretty good convection around the center, though shear is pushing the storms away as soon as they grow. Still, it's hard to believe the winds aren't 39 mph yet; look at it on the RGB loop... Meanwhile, closer to home, the elongated system north of Haiti and the DR is having a pretty good flare-up of convection right now; it may even make it into something by tomorrow evening (though that's not really likely)...

(FWIW, the model consensus is that 90L will be at or near hurricane strength in the vicinity of Puerto Rico by next Thursday or so.)

The site is using a mix of language that sounds pretty contradictory unless you look at their definitions section:
"A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Tropical Storm:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 km/hr).

So, it could become more organized in the next 48 hours, but it will also be a couple days before it actually reaches tropical depression.

Tropical Depression:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

It's all going to depend on the exact timing. Looks like the latest tropical wave has a good chance to become more organized, but with the El Nino winds shearing off the tops, these systems have been slow to develop and fast to dissipate. Ought to be fun, 'cause it'll probably be a close call either way.
Stay tuned!

With all the fighting about August 15, I just picked up Sept at better than 1:100 odds. If this el Nino shearing wind aloft continues, it just may squash all the systems trying to develop. So far, it's won each time, so I'd say the odds are a lot better than 1:50 that we will make it through August without a TS!

squlman, you are going all in with a weak hand, I might add. I'll take your odds!

Frogy - don't get in a tizzy. We call them hurricanes here in the Atlantic. 39 mph winds gets a name,tropical storm Ana., 74 mph becomes a hurricane. hurricane Ana. Don't clutter things up with a lot of facts. Later we can get to 1-2-3-4-5.
This thing has been wandering with 35 mph. but watch that next one.

Every storm has its own timetable; one can meander along as a tropical depression for a week without ever reaching tropical storm strength, while the next can go from a tropical depression to a Category 3 hurricane in 24 hours or so. It all depends on a lot of factors: sea surface temperatures, wind shear, proximity of dry/cool air, and so on. I've seen tropical storms right on the verge of becoming a hurricane vanish--literally--overnight, with barely a remnant low to show for it. I've also seen little tropical disturbances come off of Africa and blossom into fully-developed Cape Verde-type storms in just a day or two. 90L is several hundred miles south of the dry air north of it, it's over water with SSTs of 27-28°C (plenty warm enough), and wind shear is expected to remain about 10-20 knots for the next several days. We'll have to see what tomorrow and Saturday bring.

Gonna be a nail-biter...

@Destry, were you in Port Charlotte for Charley????

For our 5 year anniversary of Charley, there were 11,000 buildings destroyed and 59,000 damaged.

@tuff...sure is worth a bet...agree with your analysis El Nino is helping us

Yes I was. I left the house i was renting and stayed with family just up the road in North Port. It was a good thing, the house I was renting had the roof and two walls knocked down during storm. There will be a celebration on August 15th in Punta Gorda showcasing how the area has recovered. Jeb Bush has agreed to appear.

The clock is winding down, the race is on. Can this eastern-most system develop into a tropical storm in the next 36 hours? It's not even a tropical depression yet, though it may well develop into one later today. Then it has to make the next grade within 24 h or so. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen, the race is ON!

@tuff_sledding: hardly all in; I'm sitting on a pretty nice-sized pile of chips. And I wouldn't say it's a weak hand...though (to really stretch the analogy) with Mother Nature dealing, you never know. Sometimes it's pocket rockets; next time it's rags. You know? ;-)

@ Destry - Oh my, I don't want another that close again. When it started its eastern turn I thought for sure it was coming over Sanibel and straight up the Caloosahatche, and the end was near. I was alone in the center of my 1925 house, with glass breaking, and "stuff" hitting the house, and my niece in North Carolina calling and wanting my to go out & look so I could tell her what was happening. For me, it was not as bad as it sounded. My damage was minimal and I got paid more than fairly by Allstate.

this is getting good! the pot has grown to nearly 390K.
I don't see any serious development so far, but there is still about 30 h to go. this may go down to the wire, to throw in another cliche....
Whatever pile of chips you have my friend sqlman, go ahead and throw it in, I still like my odds. :-)
The last update prior to August 16th will be tomorrow evening @ 8 PM. If it doesn't make TS status by then, it's not going to make it. Therefore, 26 h and counting.....
stay tuned.
PS, we need more markets like this! How about "when will the next hurricane form in the Atlantic?"
Or "how many named storms will there be in September?", etc..

No more serious developments? How about the remnant low TD2 was upgraded back to having a better than 50% chance of developing by tomorrow or so at the 8:00PM EDT update, and Invest 90L has an equal chance. The DVORAK numbers for both are looking better by the hour, and they both appear fairly robust on satellite presentations. It's possible (though admittedly not likely) that we may not just see T.S. Ana tomorrow, but T.S. Bill, as well.


Yes, you're right...mostly...that we have until 8:00PM EDT tomorrow; should it warrant it, the NHC sometimes put out intermediate advisories (11:00 AM & PM and 5:00 AM & PM). And if the NHC determines a storm crosses certain thresholds--say, when it becomes a storm, or when it becomes a major hurricane--they put out bulletins regardless of the time. IOW, this one needs to wait until midnight EDT before being called if nothing has happened by then...
So make those questions; I'll buy in!

Well, the upgrade just happened a short while ago. My earlier post pre-dated that announcement.
So, the chances are improving that there will be at TD or two in the next 24h. But will they make it to TS strength by midnight tomorrow? Time will tell, as it always does...
PS, the pot's now over 410K! Pity it's not winner take all like in poker....

"But will they make it to TS strength by midnight tomorrow?"

I'm, er, betting on it. ;-)

El Nino let me down. You win, congratulations. That was fun, win or loose. I think I will go and create those other questions. I salute the winner :-)

Yes, it was fun. Everyone likes a nail-biter, huh? :-)

These things that happen while I'm asleep!!!

Yep, even a two-fer to drive home the point: TS Bill was born today, too, roughly 12 hours after Ana. The nursery is getting crowded all of a sudden...