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Will Obama Administration scrap Nasa's Space Shuttle plans for retirement by 2010?

Background: The Space Shuttle is due to make its last flight in 2010. Without a replacement, NASA may be without a manned space capability entirely, for the first time since the 1960s, a gap that NASA says would destroy the U.S.'s primacy in space technology.

Prior news reports have hinted at a great deal of tension between Obama's team and NASA, a report that NASA Administrator Michael Griffon has denied.

On the campaign trail, Obama blew both hot and cold on plans for NASA's budget. In the NASA-friendly states of Texas and Florida, he promised to expand NASA's budget by more than 10%. In other states, however, he promised cuts and delays to the agency, in order to help fund his education policies.

Category Editor Clarification
This question refers to continuing the life of the space shuttle past next year's planned retirement. Sorry for past confusion.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
60%
No
40%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 25th Dec 2008 5:33am PST by deanthoreau
Suspended Thu 8th Jan 11:03pm PST by tisha[Admin]: Suspended pending clarification
Unsuspended Fri 9th Jan 2:48pm PST by tisha[Admin]: Clarification to the question has been made. Please note carefully
Suspended Fri 9th Jan 2:51pm PST by tisha[Admin]
Unsuspended Fri 9th Jan 2:54pm PST by tisha[Admin]: Sorry - reclarified. Hopefully the question makes sense now. Apologies.
Settlement requested Fri 27th Feb 6:58am PST by frogchop: not sure if this settles this market or not, but it might:

http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=31&art_id=nw20090227063326348C887575

I'm not a player in this market.

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (43)

9 weeks ago
neuronexmachina predicted Yes (H$2,000 at 58%)
11 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted Yes (H$100 at 55%)
12 weeks ago
neuronexmachina predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 54%)
12 weeks ago
neuronexmachina predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 52%)
22 weeks ago
freeze predicted No (H$50 at 49%)

Comments (4)

As I mentioned in a different question, there's some ambiguity here. What happens if Obama cancels the Ares I, but instead funds an effort to use EELVs as a shuttle replacement?
posted 45 weeks ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
I've made quite a few clarifications to the question - please contact me if you feel this significantly changes your prediction. Sorry for the delayed suspension.

Ps - this article might be of interest to you all
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28530024/
posted 45 weeks ago
  3 deanthoreau
thank you tisha...I appreciate it.
posted 45 weeks ago
  4 tisha[Admin]
Whoops - I've changed tack again (if you are confused - sorry!) This question refers to continuing the life of the space shuttle past next year's planned retirement. Sorry for past confusion. Thanks for the question dean.
posted 45 weeks ago

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