Created Thu 25th Dec 2008 6:11am PST by

deanthoreau

Will the total sales of the BYD plug-in car for 2009 exceed 300,000 vehicles?

Background: A Chinese company has grabbed the distinction of being the first carmaker on the planet to offer a mass-produced plug-in hybrid.

The Chinese company is called BYD (Build Your Dreams) and is now selling the F3DM plug-in hybrid in its home country. The vehicle has a full electric range of 60 miles on a full battery. The lithium-ion batteries can be charged fully in seven hours and the battery can be charged to 50% of full capacity in only ten minutes at a special charge station.

In addition to the battery power, the car also sports a 1-liter gasoline engine that charges the batteries for extended driving. BYD founder and chairman Wang Changfu said, "The development of electric-powered vehicles is the best way for the Chinese auto industry to surpass other leading countries."

The F3DM will sell at a price of about $22,000 initially and will be first targeted at government agencies and corporations. American Warren Buffett purchased a 9.9% stake in the company in September, which could mean that the vehicle may find its way to America in the future. Buffett's purchase cost him $230 million.

BYD F3DM (Source: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg News) The F3DM can run 60 miles on a fully charged battery and recharge in seven hours

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Question will settle as soon as sales hit 300,000 or Dec31 2009 whichever occurs first.

Forecast history %

Yes

16%

84%

Question suspends in 3 weeks

Activity: H$40,394
Predictions: 58
Comments: 6

Suspend date: Fri 18th Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 55%

Action history:

Created Thu 25th Dec 2008 6:11am PST by

deanthoreau

Suspended Fri 26th Dec 2008 5:02am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Creator requested a major change in the number quoted in the question. Will suspend, then change the total and unsuspend. This should allow a message to be sent to the prior wagerers and allow them to adjust their wagers if they desire.

Changed Question text Fri 26th Dec 2008 5:03am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: ... car for 2009 exceed 3 ~~million~~,000,000 vehicles?

Changed Settlement info Fri 26th Dec 2008 5:03am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: show details

... soon as sales hit 3 ~~million~~, 000,000 or Dec31 2009 whichever occurs

Changed Suspend date Fri 26th Dec 2008 5:03am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: was: "2009-12-31 23:59:00"

Changed Settlement info Fri 26th Dec 2008 5:06am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: show details

... as soon as sales hit ~~3, 000~~300,000 or Dec31 2009 whichever

Changed Question text Fri 26th Dec 2008 5:06am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: ... in car for 2009 exceed ~~3,000~~300,000 vehicles?

Changed Description Fri 26th Dec 2008 5:06am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: ... aA Chinese company has grabbed the

Unsuspended Fri 26th Dec 2008 5:08am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Number of vehicles in the question was changed from 3 million to 300,000. Wagers can alter their bets if they choose.

hide

Suspend date: Fri 18th Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (58)

3 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,668,024)

predicted No (H$10,000 at 79%)

7 weeks ago

zvassil Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,053,078)

predicted Yes (H$100 at 27%)

9 weeks ago

mdad8200 Level 8, Super-Pro (H$5,454)

predicted No (H$50 at 73%)

15 weeks ago

greggles Level 12, Guru (H$28,055)

predicted No (H$100 at 73%)

21 weeks ago

fellcolor Level 15, Seer (H$375,162)

predicted No (H$10,000 at 65%)

Comments (6)

capecodviking [Power User]

According to The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Wang told reporters that the company plans to sell 350,000 total vehicles in 2009, which is nearly twice the number sold in 2008.

posted 47 weeks ago

deanthoreau

i am sorry, i had a brain fart it was supposed to say 300,000

posted 47 weeks ago

deanthoreau

i have flagged it

posted 47 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

I suspended the question, then changed the numbers in the question and reopened it. This should allow messages to be sent to the four players who wagered relatively small amounts on the question and alert them in case they want to change their wagers.

Thanks to both of you for quick action on this!

posted 47 weeks ago

gonegonegone Level 15, Seer (H$311,937)

Dean. Copious thanks for bringing this to my attention. Fascinating.

posted 45 weeks ago

aland

@dean. Great question and very helpful set-up. Thanks!!

posted 45 weeks ago

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