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Will FreeRice.com surpass 62,000,000,000 in grains of rice donated by Feb 1, 2009?

Settled as No

58,708,281,440

Background:

Background: http://WWW.FreeRice.com is a website that is in partnership with the United Nations World Food Program and Berkman Center for Internet & Society at Harvard University. On the website any individual may play a variety of vocabulary, art, Chemistry, English Grammar, Spanish, German, Italian, French language, and Math games. For each answer a player get right 20 grains of rice are donated to the UN World Food Program. As of December1, 2008 52,797,910,630 grains of rice have been donated since the inception of the web site.

Prior monthly donation totals have been:
SEPTEMBER 2008 3,149,870,660
OCTOBER 2008 3,739,408,120
NOVEMBER 2008 3,678,546,760
For more information on monthly totals you can go to: www.freerice.com/totals
And of course you can always play on FreeRice.com to boost the rice donations; and boost your potential of winning your HubDub prediction.

Settlement details:As reported by FreeRice.com on their Totals page of all grains of rice donated from date of website inception thru the end January 2009.
Usually the total appears at 8am est Therefore the actual total up to an including January 2009 will be avaiable on their website at 8am est, Feb 2009

 
Forecast history %
Yes
1%
No
99%
Settled as No on Tue 3rd Feb 2009 8:56am PST

Suspend date: Thu 29th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 3rd Feb 2009 8:56am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 29th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 26th Dec 2008 12:52pm PST by deanthoreau
Suspended Thu 29th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 3rd Feb 2009 7:20am PST by gtown[Power User]: No

At 58,708,281,440 today:

http://www.freerice.com/totals.php
Settled as 'No' Tue 3rd Feb 2009 8:56am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: 58,708,281,440

Suspend date: Thu 29th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 3rd Feb 2009 8:56am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 29th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (104)

1 year ago
bobdevine predicted No (H$9,999 at 99%)
1 year ago
bobdevine predicted No (H$9,999 at 98%)
1 year ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted No (H$500 at 97%)
1 year ago
opie predicted No (H$100 at 97%)
1 year ago
galahaut predicted No (H$4,000 at 98%)

Comments (7)

  1 pixelpaws
As of the end of December: 56,197,743,930. Since the site's inception, they've only had two months of over five billion grains.
posted 1 year ago
There is not a prayer of reaching 62 000 000 000 at this point! I can't figure out why those of you who bet on it won't cash out the few bucks you can salvage and move on.....
posted 1 year ago
  3 deanthoreau
maybe they did
posted 1 year ago
If so, why is it not 99% No? When folks cash out, the rest of us who got it right can do the same and re-invest...
posted 1 year ago
the totals link in the question is incorrect and gives a 404 error the correct link is http://www.freerice.com/totals.php
posted 1 year ago
  6 nyharel
tuff_sledding - because cashing out works work both ways: If it's at 99%, people who bet correctly are also tempted to cash out and put their "money" in more profitable investments (rather than wait another week for a 1%), and when they do that the percentage again drops slightly.
So the percentages in "sure" bets (like this one and many others) will always settle on less than 100%, say 95-97%, depending on what return people expect from a "safe investment". If people expect a 3% return in a week, and a sure bet has a week until settlement with 92% odds, people won't invest in it because it will return just 2%, not 3%; So the odds tend to stay at exactly the tipping point.
So the odds of this bet is 97% when there is a week left, but may become 99% when there are just two days left (although I doubt this will ever happen - most people won't bother investing, not even for two days, for just 1% return).
posted 1 year ago
I understand why nobody new would invest for the meager return, nyharel. But I thought that it would seem to make sense for the ones on the wrong side of the bet to salvage what they can, thus shifting the odds closer to 100%. But I see your point. If enough of us cash out our 97% bets, then the odds may shift slightly down and maybe the loser can salvage one or 2 more H$. Doesn't see worth it either. I say, everybody cash out and move on!
posted 1 year ago

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