
Will FreeRice.com surpass 62,000,000,000 in grains of rice donated by Feb 1, 2009?
58,708,281,440
Background:>
Prior monthly donation totals have been:
SEPTEMBER 2008 3,149,870,660
OCTOBER 2008 3,739,408,120
NOVEMBER 2008 3,678,546,760
For more information on monthly totals you can go to: www.freerice.com/totals
And of course you can always play on FreeRice.com to boost the rice donations; and boost your potential of winning your HubDub prediction.
Settlement details:As reported by FreeRice.com on their Totals page of all grains of rice donated from date of website inception thru the end January 2009.
Usually the total appears at 8am est Therefore the actual total up to an including January 2009 will be avaiable on their website at 8am est, Feb 2009
- Activity: H$221,286 |
- Predictions: 104 |
Comments: 7
Suspend date: Thu 29th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 3rd Feb 2009 8:56am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 29th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Action history:
At 58,708,281,440 today:
http://www.freerice.com/totals.php
Suspend date: Thu 29th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 3rd Feb 2009 8:56am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 29th Jan 2009 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details
Predictions (104)
Comments (7)
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So the percentages in "sure" bets (like this one and many others) will always settle on less than 100%, say 95-97%, depending on what return people expect from a "safe investment". If people expect a 3% return in a week, and a sure bet has a week until settlement with 92% odds, people won't invest in it because it will return just 2%, not 3%; So the odds tend to stay at exactly the tipping point.
So the odds of this bet is 97% when there is a week left, but may become 99% when there are just two days left (although I doubt this will ever happen - most people won't bother investing, not even for two days, for just 1% return).
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