Created Sat 27th Dec 2008 3:26pm PST by

deanthoreau

What percentage of major U.S. Retailers will file for Bankruptcy protection by July 1, 2009?

Voided

Sorry to void, but after all this time there are still no news reports that can reliably provide the necessary settlement info

Background:

Background: the Wall Street Journal states: Analysts estimate that from about 10% to 26% of all retailers are in financial distress and in danger of filing for Chapter 11. AlixPartners LLP, a Michigan-based turnaround consulting firm, estimates that 25.8% of 182 large retailers it tracks are at significant risk of filing for bankruptcy or facing financial distress in 2009 or 2010. In the previous two years, the firm had estimated 4% to 7% of retailers then tracked were at a high risk for filing.

"We will have a lot fewer stores by the middle of 2009," says Nancy Koehn, professor of business administration at Harvard Business School. "It's happening very, very quickly because of the financial crisis and the recession."

Settlement details:As reported by Reuters or other reputable business news casting corporation.
Major US Retailer is defined as the 182 retailers that AlixPartners tracks.

Forecast history %

0 - 5 % ok it is not as bad as they said

5.001 % to 10 % ok it is almost as bad

10%

10.001 % to 15 % ok it is bad

30%

15.001 % to 20 % ok this is really bad

32%

20.001 % to 25 % ok anybody have any money?

17%

25.001 % to 30 % ok can I use hubbucks for food?

more than 30.001 % boiled computer for dinner?

Voided Mon 7th Sep 2009 2:43am PST

Activity: H$19,213
Predictions: 83
Comments: 9

Suspend date: Mon 15th Jun 2009 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: 0 - 5 % ok it is not as bad as they said: 3%, 5.001 % to 10 % ok it is almost as bad: 10%, 10.001 % to 15 % ok it is bad: 30%, 15.001 % to 20 % ok this is really bad: 32%, 20.001 % to 25 % ok anybody have any money?: 17%, 25.001 % to 30 % ok can I use hubbucks for food?: 5%, more than 30.001 % boiled computer for dinner?: 3%

Action history:

Created Sat 27th Dec 2008 3:26pm PST by

deanthoreau

Changed Suspend date Mon 29th Dec 2008 11:46am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: was: "2009-06-30 23:59:00"

Changed Question text Mon 19th Jan 2009 5:52am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: show details

... of major U.S. Retailers ~~shall~~will file for Bankruptcy protection by

Suspended Mon 15th Jun 2009 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Fri 31st Jul 2009 8:59pm PST by

rogerkni Level 14, Prophet (H$222,585)

: <nudge>

Voided Mon 7th Sep 2009 2:43am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Sorry to void, but after all this time there are still no news reports that can reliably provide the necessary settlement info

hide

Suspend date: Mon 15th Jun 2009 11:59pm PST details

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Predictions (83)

34 weeks ago

waynem Level 10, Genius (H$13,944)

predicted 5.001 % to 10 % ok it is almost as bad (H$250 at 28%)

34 weeks ago

opie

predicted 10.001 % to 15 % ok it is bad (H$50 at 33%)

34 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,603,199)

predicted 0 - 5 % ok it is not as bad as they said (H$100 at 13%)

34 weeks ago

frogchop Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,603,199)

predicted 5.001 % to 10 % ok it is almost as bad (H$250 at 23%)

35 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 14, Prophet (H$222,585)

predicted 0 - 5 % ok it is not as bad as they said (H$200 at 10%)

Comments (9)

buckeyetom Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,702,867)

Hi Dean-
Where can I link to the 182 retailers to see who they are? I went to AlixPartners website but did not see a list there. Can you help out here Dean?
Thanks,
Tom

posted 1 year ago

ironman288 Level 12, Guru (H$38,097)

from reading the background this is a list of business that MAY declare bankruptcy correct? So even the people making the figure dont expect all of those companies actually WILL go bankrupt ;)

posted 1 year ago

ironman288 Level 12, Guru (H$38,097)

oh and aside from that this question ends only 25% of the way through thier window.

posted 1 year ago

deanthoreau

@ i have to find it, its on my work computer :(
@ ironman the firm is estimating 25% will go bankrupt by 2010... a couple are so close they will prolly file within weeks, and bluntly, i find questions to with long long suspensions to be boring. So hubbiedubbies will have to use a little estimation guesstimation to come up with a figure. umm like ummm. 25 divided by 4.... 7.33 percent if going purely mathematical; then if going purely economics and trends one would asusme high end expensive sotres prolly will go first..yada yada yada i mena if i said it is estimated 25% of the major retail mkts in the usa will go bankrupt by 2010.true or false ..what fun would that be?

posted 1 year ago

deanthoreau

http://clusterstock.alleyinsider.com/2008/12/25-of-retailers-may-go-bankrupt

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123033610871336369.html

posted 1 year ago

ironman288 Level 12, Guru (H$38,097)

I'm not criticizing the question dean, just pointing out that we don't get the entire time their prediction covers for business's to fail. However, it probably will be a little more than 1/4 of their guess (assuming they are 100% correct) becuase more will fail sooner than later ;)

i put my money on 5-10%

posted 1 year ago

bayoubear [Admin]

OK....I've been in conversations with Dean, and actually the market looks pretty much on target for the most part. Yes, some of the projections are for dates into 2010, but the percentages play pretty well for the next 6 months or so.

Leaving the question as it is, since it is well set-up, only change is that I'm moving the suspension date back to June 15 to allow the question to suspend two weeks prior to the ending date of July 1. Known bankruptcies should be available within a few days of the closing date.

Like Ironman said, if you're concerned about the length of time, put your money on the shorter odds...you'll have plenty of time to adjust your wagers..........

posted 1 year ago

deanthoreau

might want to check this out from bloomberg... (I love bloomberg)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajAqMbszJmNY&refer=home

posted 1 year ago

bayoubear [Admin]

OK...here's another one of those questions that appear so interesting, but prove to be so difficult to settle...can anyone help with finding the necessary news reports to settle this question properly?

Thanks in advance...........

posted 27 weeks ago

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