How long will the new government in Belgium last?

Suspend date: Wed 30th Nov 2011 3:59pm PST (2 years to go)
Settlement date: Fri 20th Nov 4:38am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 17th Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: It won't last long...1st half of 2009: 45%, No surprises....2nd half of 2009: 25%, Van Rompuy's government will see the new decade.: 15%, Van Rompuy last until election year 2011.: 10%, Surprise! V.R. is still PM in 2012.: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 30th Dec 2008 4:58pm PST by hoernla

Changed Description Fri 9th Jan 2:28pm PST by infernalmachine

Settlement requested Fri 20th Nov 3:22am PST by hoernla: If I understand correctly, von Rompuy leaves office with the validation of the Lisbon treaty on Dec 1st, 2009.

So the question is either settled as 2nd half of 2009 or voided due to v.R. leaving his office without an actual failure of his government.

Suspended Fri 20th Nov 4:28am PST by sqlman

Settled as 'No surprises....2nd half of 2009' Fri 20th Nov 4:38am PST by sqlman: Here am I tattle-telling again... ;-)

Hoernia sent me an SR on the following:

http://www.hubdub.com/m27083/How_long_will_the_new_government_in_Belgium_last

It was announced yesterday that Belgium's Van Rompuy would be leaving on December 1 to head up the EU, after which Hoernia immediately sold 6 wrong positions, then boot-strapped another three more, leaving himself (herself?) with just one final large wager. I backvoided on settlement so the last one was for no gain, though thousands more were already made through cashing in.

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Suspend date: Wed 30th Nov 2011 3:59pm PST (2 years to go)
Settlement date: Fri 20th Nov 4:38am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 17th Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details