Oil- up or down? Which comes first by January 31st - $55 oil or $35 oil?

"Oil Rises on Quiet Trading to Cap Turbulent Year"--headline, Associated Press, Dec. 31
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i5TtajgUpSm7KY5jf-lCJGHBB-tAD95DS7EG1
• "Oil Falls on Quiet Trading to Cap Turbulent Year"--headline, Associated Press, Dec. 31
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i5TtajgUpSm7KY5jf-lCJGHBB-tAD95DQAQ80

Realtime Price Data
http://bloomberg.com/energy

Crude inputs are down, home heating stocks are low for this time of year, and there's unrest in the middle east. That adds up to rising oil prices. Whether that adds up to $55 by 1/31 is up to the futures markets and the fear they perceive over Israel and Hamas resolving quickly or drawing out for weeks or longer.

futures don't show 55 by 31 yet.

Maybe the futures don't show it, but with the ongoing--in fact, possibly escalating--Israeli/Palestinian conflict, Iran imploring the rest of OPEC to use its oil reserves as a weapon, and even the Gazprom/Ukrainian energy standoff, things are a little but up in the air. Crude has gone up nearly $18 bbl in the last two weeks ($9 a week); it's hard to imagine it can't go up just another $6 in the next three ($3 per week).

At any rate, NYMEX LSC has been through 50 this morning... (http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=3343724)

Er, that should be:

"...it's hard to imagine it can't go up just another $6 in the next three ($2 per week)."

(I didn't fail second grade math, I swear.)

ha. I believe you!

This conflict will certainly make some weight, but I suspect something will settle soon. Futures don't show it, but I agree.... 55 by 31 IS possible.

Zoom in on the graph, it speaks volumes. Would make a good painting, "Confusion, Oil on Canvass."

Wow...down nearly 12% today to under 43%, the largest one-day drop since 9/11.

That's it: I officially know nothing about anything. ;)

Someone knows something. I smell a big news day coming!

I know nothing....or do i?

@Erik
That is hilarious.
No wonder I cannot make any sense of the oil markets either.

nods to chatarra....and did you notice that both stories were written by the same reporter?

I'm lucky and got out near the peak with most of my contracts before it dropped. I think the ceasefire deal in the works in Gaza is showing a stabilizing influence on the price of oil. More important, the latest crude oil stock numbers were up (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm). People, you're not consuming enough! <joking> (Personally, I'd rather have the low prices at the pump)

yeah i expect oil will drop a bit in the near future (in a couple of weeks maybe?) but who knows. i think it's going to stay in this 35-55 range for awhile though, unless something really dramatic happens.

There's only one thing I know for sure about the price of oil: it will settle under one of these three options. ;)

So far so good.

ask the gas stations in south florida...gas has gone up 20 cents in the last day

did that by me in chicago too. It doesnt seem to have anything to do with oil though....

I give up on trying to figure oil prices...from now on I'm gonna put money on all options and hope for the best!

The market is currently a wonderful Mexican stand-off. Check out the price graph over the volume graph here.http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=CL08XE&sid=3343724&dist=TQP_chart_date&freq=9&time=1 . Price drops near $37, buyers rush in, near $38 they become very shy.

Pete...interesting!
I have sunk a vast majority of my funds in $35 or less.....It is going to happen...it is tettering (sp?) near that level as I right (ok with a days margin)...Good luck to all.

It got down to $36.14 last night then limped up to $39.50. Everyone wants to stock up but they are running out of places to put the stuff.

Low today was : $35.53 danger zone!

Geez - the older I get, the less I know. I would have never believed that oil would be trading near 35.00 per barrel - ever again.

Here's a handy chart with prices for futures contracts right through the year. http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=CL It would suggest that price of the <$35 1st and "does neither" options are back to front.

ugh!!!! 35.27....will it get there????? If it does not I can kiss all my Hubdub good bye!

It should get there today (1/15)...

$35.05!!!!! this is killing me! then it went back up!

Finally

Just broke 34

Is this question based on closing price or intraday?

It made it; now let's see if it'll close at or below $35...

I'm see it at $35.05 per this MarketWatch report. Take a peek. http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=3343724

OK...Now I'm seeing it at $34.65.

yeah baby....I am still alive!

It's been down to $34.65...but (unlike last time) it's got to *close* at or below $35.00. Keep your fingers crossed... ;)

33.90 with about 2 hours to go

Settlement conditions require the closing price to be above or below $35 or $55...so it still has to hang on to settle.....

Because it looks like we may have a settlement today, I am going to set a temporary suspension as of 2:30 EST in case we have reached a settlement price...if not, I will reopen it again....we do not need players coming in and wagering on the market after closing time today if the settlement point has been reached.

@Petefin-
Congrats on a fine question. You know a question is very good when it garners almost 1300 wagers and approaches $400k for the handle. Good going Pete!

PS...What are you going to do to top this?

My congrats too on a well-done question that has generated a lot of interest. We've had several new players come on board in the past several weeks and months who've really been making some great additions to our question creation efforts....thanks to all ! ! !

33.65 with about 50 mins to go.

Oil rallying with Dow. Up to 34.25, over a buck off lows

34.65, shootin for 35

I'm glad people are watching this....unbelievable! I'm surprised this question hasn't been suspended (at least temporarily!)

got up to 34.90

captain> action is what it's all about. Why on earth would you have it suspended? (hanging tight 'til the end of the month)

c'mon $35.01

it's goin' up...

hit 35.30, 7 mins to go

35.40

Not today

Now above $35 so what now. I had to dump 30k worth of neither positions for peanuts because of the suspension looming. Settlement was clearly on closing price. If you reopen the market other players can pick up my positions for a fraction of the odds I paid. Without the suspension I would have waited until 5 minutes before Nymex closed before giving them up as hopeless. I had not lost on one trade on this question so far and would be having my best tension-racked hour on hubdub so far. Instead I'm wiped out. What are you going to do if the market closes above $35 and stays there? Yeah, it was a great question, pity you decided to start making up new rules just when it got really interesting.

What time is the close???? I thought it was 3:30 CST.
Oil is a $34.88 with 15 mins to closing bell.
Am I missing something?

The data on Marketwatch is always a few minutes behind the actual Nymex trading. This could have been a truly great finish with dozens of players having a great time.

Pete....I feel for you!....Although you are betting against me!
I agree with the nerve racking deal it is 3 pennies below $35.00 with 10 mins.....A Hub Dub great moment here....or almost in your case.

The suspension was to prevent other playing from wagering after the market closed and if the price had been met. If the price was not met, the market would reopen and your wagers would have been preserved....looks like it did close at $34.92 and so it should settle as having hit $35...let me verify that and then see about settling or reopening

It will close about $35.40. The question would be very much alive.

OK...my understanding was that NYMEX closing price on oil would have been at 2:30 EST...that's why I set it at that time...is that not correct??

@bayoubear It did close at $35.40. Settlement conditions have not yet been reached. But the question is basically stuffed. Let me know if you want to change the rules on any of my other questions. Petefin over and out.

Pete and Bayou...I think it closes at a differet time for futures rather than just barrell trading (which never really closes globally. I have no answers...just talking. I tottally thought it was one trade below the $35.00 line...I was wrong...oops!

For what it is worth...let's settle it at Below $35.00 (Just kidding.... I know I am inciting a riot when I say that) Pete, I would be willing to Gift you some HUBDUB $ should (not sure it is able to be done) I end up prevailing. I will need to win this one.....I really wish I could have cashed a little bit out within that time frame as well (just as you wished).

This question is ruling my life! I am not getting any work done!

unfortunately it appears as if the closing on the graph appears to be 2:30 EST.....I hate that! Why does it continue to trade then? weird.
Pete, the trade is out there for you to make now it appears to rebuy the crummy inbetweener bet (just kidding as it is oposite of my hedge).
Good luck to all

OK - now I'm confused - are we now looking for where it will close first or where it will close 1/31. The details seem to suggest close on 1/31 - which wasn't what the question originally asked.

I think it should be one trade under or over....many others have been that way.....Oil never closes it seams.....oh well, I will leave it to the HUBDUB gods.

Actually, the title question here is a bit misleading; it states:

"Oil- up or down? Which comes first by January 31st - $55 oil or $35 oil?"

...rather than the more accurate:

"Oil- up or down? At which price does it close first by January 31st - $55 or $35?"

Two very different questions, wouldn't you agree?

@ Bayou- Since trading closes 2:30 EST, wouldn't it be an easy thing to just cxl all trades after 2:30 EST if the question settled, rather than prematurely suspending the question? Everyone would have preferred to have the question run continuously without interruption, as it was intended, until either the ending conditions were met or suspend date.

one trade below would have been better (regardless of my stake)

did the question and comments in the intro just change? Why is the word first in there if it is not first. Not being a complainer here but come on......there is too much openm to interpretation here now....again, not trying to sound like a whinner.

I know what I meant when I framed the question. CLOSING PRICE of Nymex sweet light crude as reported by Marketwatch.com. It CLOSES below $35 first, above $55 first or does neither by 31 Jan. The question suspends on 28 Jan if one of the first 2 options had not been met. There is nothing ambiguous about it. I also note John, that you took "neither" positions after I had sold out. The suspension was an absurd call.

The questions should stand as you originally intended - that's definitely what I had understood it to mean.

Again, the question states: "Which comes first: $55 oil or $35 oil?" That *is* unambiguous...and doesn't state anything about 'closing'. Like I said above, if that was the creator's intention, the question should have been phrased:

"Oil- up or down? At which price does it close first: at or above $55, or at or below $35?"

Furthermore, the way the details are written now, oil must close at PRECISELY $35.00 or $55.00 for either of the first two options to be true.

All in all, to prevent a lot of hard feelings (and lost H$), you guys might want to consider voiding this market.

@sqlman
That's not a good idea to void a market that's had over 450,000 in play just to make you happy. Though it wasn't perfectly clear at first glance, If you read the complete question, it clearly states "For settlement closing price on Marketwatch.com 31 Jan '09". It says closing price in 2 places. Nowhere does it say based upon an intraday price.

Also, by 9:30 PT this morning, everyone knew it was based upon the close. Thankfully, there were plenty of chances to get out @98-99% area if you didn't try to hang in for that last 1-2%.

@drzinternet:

1) Based on the number of comments from disgruntled people, voiding the market wouldn't make just me happy, would it?

2) Hubdub's primary question-creation rule is to be clear and unambiguous to avoid things such as this.

3) FWIW, this isn't 'greed' on my part; I wagered on option B long ago, so I can watch it drop another 20% or so before losing any H$. My concern is merely altruistic; I care about my friends here. ;)

OK...here is the problem as I saw it...as there was no set closing time (except at the end of the month), and it really appeared as if the question would have been settled as of the closing time today...therefore, to prevent any after hours wagering I thought it would have been best to suspend it 'temporarily' at the closing time Thursday. If it had closed at or below $35 it would have been settled, with no one being able to wager more or bail out on their wagers after the facts were known. If it did not close at or below $35 I would have reopened as soon as possible to allow trades to continue (which is what I have done).

With a question like this, when a settlement possibility as close as it seemed to be, it becomes basically an "in-play" and that can bring the danger of players wagering on known outcomes unless there is a way in which to shut the question down as soon as the information is known. A temporary suspension is a good way to do this. As the closing time was 2:30, players could have traded anyway they wanted up to that time, and then if the question was reopened, they could have adjusted their wagers in anyway they wished.

If the market is trading near $35 again today, I may choose to make the same move to protect the question against any after-settlement wagering, but if I do, I will either settle or reopen the market after it closes today. No one has any reason to "bail out" because the question will either be settled or reopened and available for play.

This is a GREAT question, and I would love to see it played until the end or settlement, whichever comes first.

@sqlman
"1) Based on the number of comments from disgruntled people, voiding the market wouldn't make just me happy, would it?"

What complaints? Look at the comments. Maybe I'm missing something, but I see yours and maybe one other.

Isn't this all fake money we are talking about anyway? The question is not perfect, however, it still is great!

There are still a few conflicts:
1. Which comes first $35 or $55
2. Leter in the question it DOES clarify Closing ...BUT the closing date of Jan 31 2009 (Which is a Saturday)
Suspending the qestion would let all of those out there know from yesterday on that the question can settle out prior to that date.

I have made and lost a ton of $$$ in this question here and there, all I can say is that everyone who is playing should be congradualted for being so competitive. Bottom line is that I have learned alot about the market/futures/market Watch/closing times/......and most of all NOT getting so deep into a question on this Site ever again. If oil settles out at the $35 category I will in the top few percent of net worth on HUBDUB, if not I will be back to being excited about getting my free $20 each day I sign on.

Once again we're seeing this price bounce around the $35 mark....if it closes today at or below $35 the question can be settled....but if it stays above $35 it should stay open...again my problem is that I cannot count on being available exactly at 2:30 PM EST to close the question in case it is at or below $35 . . . if I set it to suspend again today, it will only suspend at the close of today's market and then either be settled or be reopened...hopefully within a few minutes one way or another...I just don't want players wagering on a known outcome, or cashing out losing wagers once they know they've lost...

Your comments are extremely fair and accurate.....Close it out at the appropiate time and if not VOID any KNOWN wagers. You have stated it and now the rules are out there for all to see (clearly I might add). I would love to have this type of activity on another one! Although my work suffers as an end relut of all this!

I Think (hope) today will be the end anyway! It is looking so.....drop baby drop! Hey...when I think of it, why would anyone in their right mind (as a consumer) be hoping for anything but below $35 anyway....commies!

OK...then here it is....market will suspend temporarily at 2:30 EST which is when this market closes, then as soon as I can, I will either settle the market if it DOES close at or below $35, or if it DOESN'T close at or below, I'll reopen it for trading as soon as I can....notation will be made to the background of the question itself

Bayoubear you have done a wonderful job!
No wonder you are at level 15!

For the record, what happens if it closes right on the number? From my reading of the question, it should settle. What's the official verdict?

Looks like it won't matter. Hit new high for day, now 36.50.

Though not the official settlement, it closed 36.50

If it had closed right at $35.00 it would have settled...as it is, it remained above $35 again, so we'll open it back up....

I just wanted to say to petefin, GREAT question (even though I lost H$200 on above $55), I hope when this settles you will do it again!

And thank you bayoubear for trying to keep this market fair, I know it can be tough to satisfy everyone all the time.

Everyone who gets upset when things don't go their way needs to remember that...
1. "It's only play money!"
2. Hubdub is still in beta, there are going to be problems that will need to be fixed.

Try to have fun. Life is too short! ;)

Someone needs to start a HUBDUB question about if this question will go above $500,000 in value! Great question Pete Fin.

lola the problem with that is there are players that can put that much into it in about 5 seconds once they go and bet yes ;)

Great question, I was never confused about it being a closing price.

now i see where I was confused, crude went to $32.40 on Dec. 19, 2008, but this question started on Jan. 1, 2009.

Perhaps today will finally be the day???

34.56 with 13mins left.....will it make it?

Is this one over now....finally?

Maybe...at least, it looks good so far. <crosses fingers>

Checking for the final price...looks like it'll be 34.60, so it should settle...give me a few more minutes...just suspended it while checking....

Thanks.....what a kick I got out of this question.....I cannot believe how much I stressed about this....and all over fake money!

I'm not sure it's over. On marketwatch, "previous close" is 36.51; on nymex "most recent settle" is also 36.51. Could someone check this. I just want to understand where to look to the numbers. Thank you.

@bgrigore. Yes, you're right. The oil question was erroneously settled prematurely. Nymex trading in crude was closed yesterday, and the quote on marketwatch wasn't an official closing price. It was from the overnight session. This session isn't used for official closing prices, and this is why today, on Marketwatch.com, you see the previous close was 36.51.
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=3343724
Shouldn't this question be reopened?

Trading on Feb Oil ends today, and I will attempt to reopen this question until the markets close today........... I was getting results that indicated a below $35 close, but that seems to have not been accurate.

If you *do* reopen it, what happens to the H$ that have been won/lost? (I know of one Hubdubber who gained at or close to six figures on this question.)

The question isn't based upon Feb oil, it's based upon crude oil, and should remain open until scheduled to suspend. This was something addressed in a previous oil question, and it was agreed that it would be based upon the new contract.

Thanks Bayou, it looks like this is the question that won't die.

so u suspended the question prematurely and voided my bet? i had money on "neither" - now i get nothing! nice work!

Golds going ..up and oil may follow...watch it make a run for 55 at the last few days to suspension...that would be funny...

Well, I'm hoping for option #3, but I've hedged with #1 and #2 enough to more than cover, so, you know, either way... ;)

Here is some speculation on why oil could be up sharply in the near future, even in a time of economic downturn.

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2234&mn=175407&pt=msg&mid=6530965

In summary, storage now is bearish for the feature, the OPEC cuts are occurring but haven't filtered down yet and certain consumption trends appear to be up even with a slowdown and shoulder season approaching.

How come Saturday's action, when reaches 55 got up to 80% and does neither got down to about 15%, doesn't show in the forecast history chart?

this must be the most volatile question ever!

Getting close to a million. If total activity were measured, we'd be way over. It's too bad when you cash in a position, it's subtracted from activity, rather than included. For example, if you buy 10,000 shares of stock, then trade it out, that volume counts, but here if you bet 10,000, then cash it in before settlement, it zeros out and doesn't count.