How will the DJIA perform in 2009?
Background: 8,776.39.
After a roller-coaster year, the DJIA closed 2008 down by 4,589.48 points, or 34.34%. The result? The number above, all by itself. How will the market do in 2009? Will we plunge down another third? Will it be like the depression, where we're down by nearly half two years in a row? Or will we see the beginning of a new bull market that leads us back to record territory?
Settlement details:Settled as the closing price on the last trading day of 2009 as reported by a major mainstream news source.
How will the DJIA perform in 2009?
Up 40% or more (12,286.95 or higher)
Up 30% to less than 40% (11,409.31 - 12,286.94)
Up 20% to less than 30% (10,531.68 - 11,409.30)
Up 10% to less than 20% (9,654.04 - 10,531.67)
Up less than 10% (8,776.39 - 9,654.03)
Down less than 10% (7,898.76 - 8,776.37)
Down 10% to less than 20% (7,021.10 - 7,898.75)
Down 20% to less than 30% (6,143.47 - 7,021.09)
Down 30% to less than 40% (5,265.83 - 6,143.46)
Down 40% or more (5,265.82 or lower)
Forecast history %
|
| Up 40% or more (12,286.95 or higher) | | |
|
| Up 30% to less than 40% (11,409.31 - 12,286.94) | | |
|
| Up 20% to less than 30% (10,531.68 - 11,409.30) | | |
|
| Up 10% to less than 20% (9,654.04 - 10,531.67) | | |
|
| Up less than 10% (8,776.39 - 9,654.03) | | |
|
| Down less than 10% (7,898.76 - 8,776.37) | | |
|
| Down 10% to less than 20% (7,021.10 - 7,898.75) | | |
|
| Down 20% to less than 30% (6,143.47 - 7,021.09) | | |
|
| Down 30% to less than 40% (5,265.83 - 6,143.46) | | |
|
| Down 40% or more (5,265.82 or lower) | | |
Question suspends in 6 weeks
Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 12pm PST (6 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
Up 40% or more (12,286.95 or higher): 1%, Up 30% to less than 40% (11,409.31 - 12,286.94): 5%, Up 20% to less than 30% (10,531.68 - 11,409.30): 10%, Up 10% to less than 20% (9,654.04 - 10,531.67): 15%, Up less than 10% (8,776.39 - 9,654.03): 19%, Down less than 10% (7,898.76 - 8,776.37): 19%, Down 10% to less than 20% (7,021.10 - 7,898.75): 15%, Down 20% to less than 30% (6,143.47 - 7,021.09): 10%, Down 30% to less than 40% (5,265.83 - 6,143.46): 5%, Down 40% or more (5,265.82 or lower): 1%
Action history:
Suspend date: Thu 24th Dec 12pm PST (6 weeks to go) details 
Predictions (1010)
6 days ago
tuff_sledding![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user")
predicted
Up less than 10% (8,776.39 - 9,654.03) (H$600 at 34%)
6 days ago
rogerkni
predicted
Down 10% to less than 20% (7,021.10 - 7,898.75) (H$300 at 4%)
6 days ago
rogerkni predicted
Down less than 10% (7,898.76 - 8,776.37) (H$500 at 11%)
6 days ago
rogerkni predicted
Up less than 10% (8,776.39 - 9,654.03) (H$750 at 29%)
1 week ago
rogerkni predicted
Down 10% to less than 20% (7,021.10 - 7,898.75) (H$100 at 3%)
Comments (5)
pixelpaws
Comments: 5
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
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