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Will National Average Natural Gas Residential Prices for 2009 (10 month YTD) be above $13.92?

Background: Will the average price for 2009 (10 month till October 2009 YTD) in be higher than the current $13.92?

Based on the Report from :
www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/natural_gas_monthly/current/pdf/ngm_all.pdf

Natural Gas Monthly
December 2008
Energy Information Administration
Office of Oil and Gas
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, DC 20585

Settlement details:As reported by www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/natural_gas_monthly/current/pdf/ngm_all.pdf.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
13%
No
87%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 1st Jan 2010 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Sat 3rd Jan 2:38am PST by jmd2009

Suspend date: Fri 1st Jan 2010 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (6)

9 weeks ago
frogchop predicted No (H$5,000 at 73%)
19 weeks ago
paulp predicted No (H$20 at 70%)
44 weeks ago
hannah22613 predicted Yes (H$50 at 30%)

Comments (5)

  1 bayoubear[Admin]
When should this data become available...it runs through October, but doesn't suspend until 01/01/10...shouldn't the latest date be 10/31/09 or a bit earlier?

Plus, can you find an easier site to gather the required data other than a 107 page PDF file? I would like something easier to use to settle with and I'm sure players would like an easier site to research as well. Looks like a great topic, just would like to be able to work with it a bit.
posted 46 weeks ago
  2 jmd2009
I had to search for an hour to even find this price.
If you see that the gas head price is a full $10-15 lower than the resale price then you can imagine that they dont want this price public.
I just found this... http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngw/ngupdate.asp
posted 46 weeks ago
  3 ddannywms
Agree with BB. The time needed to collect residential NatGas prices makes anything published by the gov't hopelessly out of date. I can't get your link above to load right now. Suggest you bring the market into the present with a NYMEX price or the Henry Hub price, which is the industry benchmark, as published on Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html
posted 9 weeks ago
  4 bayoubear[Admin]
Looks like a void might be the best action to take for this market...the settlement data may just be too difficult to define, and there are other related areas that might address the same issue...thinking on it....other thoughts?
posted 9 weeks ago
  5 hfl13
Easy to read follow the link: Table 3 page 13
Residential Price (8 Month) 2009: 12:41 (August was highest with 15,15)
posted 10 hours ago

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