balcacer
What will be the Israel army death toll from Israel's assault on Gaza by the suspend date?
Many users were apparently confused by both the question itself and the settlement details; indeed, 10 is the official IDF death toll from combat operations. However, that confusion--aided by some innately contradictory comments--caused many Hubdubbers to move their wagers to the higher "11-15" option, meaning that those folks lost at least partly through no fault of their own. As such, we'd like to make amends, so over the next day or two, all of you who wagered on option #3 ("11-15") will receive your winnings, while those few who selected and stayed with "6-10" will keep yours as well.
We, the administrators of Hubdub, apologize for any confusion and inconvenience. Please know that we always work diligently to make questions as clear as possible, and settlements as fair and accurately as they can be. We appreciate your continued enthusiasm for and participation in Hubdub.
Background:
Nearly 30 Palestinians Also Dead in Ground Fighting Phase as Israel Builds Cordons
Israeli ground forces moved into Gaza, solidifying their hold on the tiny strip of land but suffering their first combat casualty.
Israeli infantry soldiers enter the Gaza Strip from Israel on a combat mission Sunday, Jan. 4, 2009. Israeli ground troops and tanks cut swaths through the Gaza Strip early Sunday, bisecting the coastal territory and surrounding its biggest city as the new phase of a devastating offensive against Hamas gained momentum.
By morning, Israeli troops had established cordons across three areas of the Gaza strip in an attempt to cut off the movement of Hamas weapons and fighters.
There were reports of heavy fighting in some areas. Throughout the night, Israeli and Hamas television showed pictures of large explosions inside Gaza, artillery bursts and grainy nightscope video of long lines of Israeli troops moving into the area.
http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=6572902&page=1
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Soldiers killed in combat. Those wounded, that dies later suspension date are not counted.
| 1 - 5 Soldiers |
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| 6 - 10 Soldiers |
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| 11 - 15 Soldiers |
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| 16 - 20 Soldiers |
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| 20 - plus Soldiers |
|
- Activity: H$82,670 |
- Predictions: 199 |
Comments: 18
Suspend date: Thu 5th Feb 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 10th Feb 4:40am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 5th Feb 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: 1 - 5 Soldiers: 20%, 6 - 10 Soldiers: 20%, 11 - 15 Soldiers: 20%, 16 - 20 Soldiers: 20%, 20 - plus Soldiers: 20%
Action history:
balcacer 
conspiracy2riot
: The total is 11 IDF soldiers.
The first 10:
http://frgdr.com/blog/articles/fallen-cast-lead/
The 11th guy:
http://www.nowpublic.com/world/soldier-killed-3-injured-border-blast
Only source found referring to 11 IDF soldiers killed in one article is the wiki page on the Operation Cast Lead conflict.
sqlman![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: The official IDF line is that 10 of their soldiers died in Operation Cast Lead(1,2,3), their name for their "assault on Gaza"; the 11th was killed a full week after the completion of the Israeli offensive in what Israel itself describes as a "terrorist attack"(4) that took place in Israeli territory during a routine border patrol(5). Since the settlement details state that only the deaths of soldiers killed in combat will count, this market will settle as option #2, "6 - 10 soldiers". Since the operation/assault officially lasted until January 20(6), at which time the IDF death toll was known and disclosed, the prediction cut-off has been set for the end of that date.
1) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7852745.stm
2) http://frgdr.com/blog/articles/fallen-cast-lead/
3) http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/0129/1232923373006.html
4) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7852745.stm
5) http://www.nowpublic.com/world/soldier-killed-3-injured-border-blast
6) http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3659626,00.html
sqlman: Many users were apparently confused by both the question itself and the settlement details; indeed, 10 is the official IDF death toll from combat operations. However, that confusion--aided by some innately contradictory comments--caused many Hubdubbers to move their wagers to the higher "11-15" option, meaning that those folks lost at least partly through no fault of their own. As such, we'd like to make amends, so over the next day or two, all of you who wagered on option #3 ("11-15") will receive your winnings, while those few who selected and stayed with "6-10" will keep yours as well.
We, the administrators of Hubdub, apologize for any confusion and inconvenience. Please know that we always work diligently to make questions as clear as possible, and settlements as fair and accurately as they can be. We appreciate your continued enthusiasm for and participation in Hubdub.
sqlman: Many users were apparently confused by both the question itself and the settlement details; indeed, 10 is the official IDF death toll from combat operations. However, that confusion--aided by some innately contradictory comments--caused many Hubdubbers to move their wagers to the higher "11-15" option, meaning that those folks lost at least partly through no fault of their own. As such, we'd like to make amends, so over the next day or two, all of you who wagered on option #3 ("11-15") will receive your winnings, while those few who selected and stayed with "6-10" will keep yours as well.
We, the administrators of Hubdub, apologize for any confusion and inconvenience. Please know that we always work diligently to make questions as clear as possible, and settlements as fair and accurately as they can be. We appreciate your continued enthusiasm for and participation in Hubdub.
Suspend date: Thu 5th Feb 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 10th Feb 4:40am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 5th Feb 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (199)
jsevigny predicted 11 - 15 Soldiers (H$20 at 94%)
predicted 11 - 15 Soldiers (H$20 at 94%)
madbuns
predicted 11 - 15 Soldiers (H$20 at 94%)
predicted 11 - 15 Soldiers (H$20 at 94%)Comments (18)
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During 22 days of fighting, more than 1,200 people have died, all but 13 of them Palestinians
"Israel, which put its own losses at 10 soldiers and three civilians, says hundreds of militants died. It completed a Gaza troop pullout on Wednesday."
http://www.thestarphoenix.com/Technology/Hamas+asserts+control+Gaza+seeks+collaborators/1201806/story.html
Now up to 11
if it's Ryan it could be a couple of days before we know.
http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1059172.html
In all likelihood tensions are going to flare again.
Since this Q did not suspend earlier due to a ceasefire being put in place, it appears to me the number is now at 11.
I gave a shout out to the creator so hopefully he'll pop in and clarify.
However, happy to hear the final word from balcacer if he joins in.
Thanks for throwing in w/ your official opinion tisha.
My bad
HE could have popped in here and assisted with clarification but NOOOO...lazy ass ignored our pleas and I will never bet another q he creates.
Up till the 11th soldier was killed we ALL had our money on 10 and then the questioning began....and how long ago was that? Over a week ago since #11 bit it on Jan 27th and we were all instantly aware of this.
Thanks for watching your 'friends' get screwed, balcacer.
I guess I was just very surprised by this settlement.
Please visit this link to view my apology to you. I am very sorry for my behavior and hope this helps ease whatever pain I have caused you:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Topic/A_Formal_Apology_to_Balcacer_from_Conspiracy2Riot_394
Many users were apparently confused by both the question itself and the settlement details; indeed, 10 is the official IDF death toll from combat operations. However, that confusion--aided by some innately contradictory comments--caused many Hubdubbers to move their wagers to the higher "11-15" option, meaning that those folks lost at least partly through no fault of their own. As such, we'd like to make amends, so over the next day or two, all of you who wagered on option #3 ("11-15") will receive your winnings, while those few who selected and stayed with "6-10" will keep yours as well.
We, the administrators of Hubdub, apologize for any confusion and inconvenience. Please know that we always work diligently to make questions as clear as possible, and settlements as fair and accurately as they can be. We appreciate your continued enthusiasm for and participation in Hubdub.
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