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Will a major US airline start to allow cell phone usage in flight in 2009?

Background: Virgin and American have already discussed plans to allow cell phone use during their flights. Will 2009 be the year airlines allow cell phones?

Clarification: Usage must be out of trial phase and generally available. A major airline counts as any US passenger airline in any of the lists here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_airlines

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
59%
No
41%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Mon 5th Jan 4:50am PST by gabrielwest
Changed Description Tue 20th Jan 6:55am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: ... major airline counts as any US passenger airline in any of
Clarified Tue 20th Jan 6:56am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: Amended to only be US airlines as some foreign airlines already have mobile coverage.
Changed Question text Sun 22nd Feb 11:57pm PST by tisha[Admin]: ... a major US airline start to allow cell

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (76)

3 days ago
wiredinstructor predicted No (H$500 at 41%)
11 weeks ago
mikeo7b3 predicted No (H$50 at 39%)
11 weeks ago
bob_cook predicted No (H$100 at 39%)
11 weeks ago
robbleyard predicted No (H$60 at 38%)
13 weeks ago
wicomm predicted No (H$100 at 38%)

Comments (8)

  1 sqlman[Admin]
Oh, dear god, I hope not. Imagine the thrill of sitting next to some obnoxious motormouth bragging to his golf buddy down in Peoria for 1500 miles about the waitress he shtupped the night before. I can hardly wait... ;(
posted 45 weeks ago
  2 scary
Does it count as yes if they allow limited use of phones, i.e. texting but not calling?
posted 41 weeks ago
  3 oocares
Ryanair - (Europe's 3rd largest airline) will rollout the technology enabling the use of Blackberry’s and mobile phones for text and voice usage on its aircraft during 2009.
http://www.ryanair.com/site/EN/faqs.php?sect=inf&quest=mobilephones
posted 40 weeks ago
  4 oocares
Ryanair this week began allowing the use of mobile phones for calls during flights;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/4732424/Ryanair-mobile-phone-service-Hello-Im-on-the-plane.html
posted 39 weeks ago
  5 scary
The title of this question is 'a major airline' but the settlement details specify a US airline, which is correct?
posted 39 weeks ago
  6 oocares
Yes, US, but it's coming...
posted 39 weeks ago
  7 scary
Perhaps they ought to change the question title?
posted 39 weeks ago
  8 tculler
Folks - Listen up...Several airlines already permit WiFi access on planes, and some of them do not filter usage. How long do you think it will be before someone fires up Skype on their laptop in mid-air, and uses a headset or a handset made for VOIP?

Airlines will either deny their use (based on the inconvenience to other passengers), will allow it but not bother with trying to figure out how to make money with cell phones...or, they'll admit that cell phones don't pose a risk in flight (depite what they've been saying), and install cell phone repeaters and charge for use. Of course, if they install the repeaters, they maintain some semblance of control over cell phone transmission - that is, if they cut it off they're more likely to get you to cut off your cell phone in an emergency... rather than, 'please turn off your phones - or else we have to ditch the plane'. You know that even it that situation that one sale rep from Des Moines would stay on the phone until they pried it from his fingers....
posted 28 weeks ago

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