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Will Israel bomb an Iranian nuclear site during 2009?

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Background: Iran will likely have the capacity to develop a nuclear bomb by the end of the year, the Eurasia Group consultancy said on Monday. "There's a reasonable possibility of actual Israeli military strikes," said Eurasia President Ian Bremmer. Read the full story here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE5043A320090105

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
11%
No
89%
Question suspends in 7 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 10%

Action history:

Created Mon 5th Jan 9:20am PST by reuters

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (7 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (221)

3 hours ago
tkui predicted Yes (H$20 at 11%)
3 weeks ago
jamiejames predicted Yes (H$19 at 11%)
3 weeks ago
alexrettie predicted Yes (H$20 at 11%)
3 weeks ago
valornhonor predicted Yes (H$52 at 11%)
4 weeks ago
badgersfan predicted Yes (H$100 at 10%)

Comments (3)

  1 lola
Israel seriously considering military action against Iran
By Hilary Leila Krieger | The Jerusalem Post
March 5, 2009

WASHINGTON - Israel is seriously considering taking unilateral military action to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, according to a report by top US political figures and experts released Wednesday. The report also says Israel's time frame for action is growing shorter, not only because of Iranian advances, but because Teheran might soon acquire upgraded air defenses and disperse its nuclear program to additional locations.

The report, "Preventing a Cascade of Instability," was put out by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP). It also argues that international sanctions against Iran need to be intensified urgently for the engagement the Obama administration is planning with Tehran to be effective.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1236103158937&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
posted 35 weeks ago
  2 lola
Netanyahu To Obama: Stop Iran, Or I Will
March 31, 2009 | The Atlantic

In an interview conducted shortly before he was sworn in today as prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu laid down a challenge for Barack Obama. The American president, he said, must stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons--and quickly--or an imperiled Israel may be forced to attack Iran's nuclear facilities itself.

"The Obama presidency has two great missions: fixing the economy, and preventing Iran from gaining nuclear weapons," Netanyahu told me. He said the Iranian nuclear challenge represents a "hinge of history" and added that "Western civilization" will have failed if Iran is allowed to develop nuclear weapons. In unusually blunt language, Netanyahu said of the Iranian leadership, "You don't want a messianic apocalyptic cult controlling atomic bombs. When the wide-eyed believer gets hold of the reins of power and the weapons of mass death, then the entire world should start worrying, and that is what is happening in Iran."

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200903u/netanyahu
posted 31 weeks ago
  3 Erik
‘Ephraim Sneh, a former Israeli deputy defence minister, warned that time was running out for action to stop the programme. “If no crippling sanctions are introduced by Christmas, Israel will strike,” he said. “If we are left alone, we will act alone.”’

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6860161.ece
posted 3 weeks ago

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