Created Tue 6th Jan 10:12pm PST by
ryanb37
How will Stacy Peterson be found?
Background: Stacy Peterson is still missing. Most everyone think she is dead but there is no body and no one knows for sure.
<a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25829361/">Recent MSNBC story</a>
[Category Editor comment] Although this question may look a little confusing at first, because of the ordering of the options, it actually is fine. You're predicting on whether she's Found Alive (and where), Found Dead (in what type of location), or Not Found in 2009. Just for clarity's sake, the option "Found dead on the Peterson property" will be interpreted to mean only in the Peterson main dwelling (at time of disappearance) and surrounding grounds. Therefore any other Peterson property will not be considered the Peterson property, so if she's found dead there, one of the other options will apply.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
How will Stacy Peterson be found?
Found Alive in Illinois
Found Dead on the Peterson property
Found Dead in a body of water
Found Dead in a field
Found dead in a wooded area
Found Alive in any US state other than Illinois
Found Alive but not in a US state
Found Dead in any location not mentioned above
Not found - still missing
Zoom out
Forecast history %
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| Found Alive in Illinois | | |
|
| Found Dead on the Peterson property | | |
|
| Found Dead in a body of water | | |
|
| Found Dead in a field | | |
|
| Found dead in a wooded area | | |
|
| Found Alive in any US state other than Illinois | | |
|
| Found Alive but not in a US state | | |
|
| Found Dead in any location not mentioned above | | |
|
| Not found - still missing | | |
Question suspends in 6 weeks
Suspend date: Sat 2nd Jan 2010 3:59pm PST (6 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
Found Alive in Illinois: 4%, Found Dead on the Peterson property: 10%, Found Dead in a body of water: 10%, Found Dead in a field: 10%, Found dead in a wooded area: 10%, Found Alive in any US state other than Illinois: 6%, Found Alive but not in a US state: 10%, Found Dead in any location not mentioned above: 15%, Not found - still missing: 25%
Action history:
Created Tue 6th Jan 10:12pm PST by
ryanb37
Suspend date: Sat 2nd Jan 2010 3:59pm PST (6 weeks to go) details
Predictions (22)
2 weeks ago
fellcolor
predicted
Not found - still missing (H$10,000 at 89%)
2 weeks ago
bout3fitty
predicted
Not found - still missing (H$1,500 at 71%)
31 weeks ago
ianarosh
predicted
Not found - still missing (H$100 at 66%)
42 weeks ago
bout3fitty
predicted
Not found - still missing (H$2,000 at 59%)
45 weeks ago
deadonjenny
predicted
Found Dead in any location not mentioned above (H$50 at 16%)
Comments (1)
[Category Editor comment] "Although this question may look a little confusing at first, because of the ordering of the options, it actually is fine. You're predicting on whether she's Found Alive (and where), Found Dead (in what type of location), or Not Found in 2008."
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