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When will Kim Jong-Il have died?

Background: South Korea's spy agency Sunday denied a media report that the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il might be worsening.

When will Kim Jong-Il have died, as officially declared by North-Korean state media until suspension date?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Before 2009
0%
In 2009
5%
After 2009 / Never
95%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Before 2009: 10%, In 2009: 40%, After 2009 / Never: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 9th Jan 2:54pm PST by kruijs[Power User]

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (187)

2 weeks ago
tkui predicted In 2009 (H$5 at 5%)
3 weeks ago
frogchop predicted In 2009 (H$50 at 4%)
9 weeks ago
bookie predicted After 2009 / Never (H$440 at 82%)
11 weeks ago
hoernla predicted After 2009 / Never (H$600 at 79%)
15 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted After 2009 / Never (H$800 at 67%)

Comments (15)

Never? Now, if "never" was a separate category, I'd like to see the action on that.
posted 45 weeks ago
  2 bgrigore
What if he died in 2007 but we will find it in 2011, when would the question settle?
posted 45 weeks ago
  3 bgrigore
aha "as officially declared by North-Korean state media until suspension date", kruijs I'll never read your questions but in the morning
posted 45 weeks ago
  4 deanthoreau
ok i dont understand krujis you say:
"South Korea's spy agency Sunday denied a media report that the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il might be worsening."

South korea is saying the leader of north korea's health is not worsening...
So why would we think he is dead,,when the south korea spies say he is not????
posted 45 weeks ago
  5 philm
I'm so ronery!!!
posted 44 weeks ago
  6 kruijs[Power User]
deanthoreau, that's just because I was too lazy to write a new background so I just took the one of the last year's version of this question (http://www.hubdub.com/m15559/When_will_Kim_JongIl_have_died) and removed parts of it.
right. what's remaining doesn't make no sense. but does the question do so?
posted 44 weeks ago
  7 mork[Power User]
Kim Jong Il Eharmony
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHkWv1vHtHk
posted 38 weeks ago
  8 jjth
Seoul (AFP) June 19, 2009
+++++++++++++++++++
A South Korean newspaper said Friday the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il is rapidly worsening and Pyongyang is trying to import expensive medical equipment through China. The North is also seeking to bring in an emergency helicopter, the South's largest-selling daily Chosun Ilbo reported. Kim is widely believed to have suffered a stroke last August but there was no confirmation of the latest report. The National Intelligence Service declined to comment. Chosun said Pyongyang's Ponghwa Hospital is treating the 67-year-old. It said officials of the hospital who are based in Beijing are trying to buy medical equipment which has been banned under an embargo imposed in 2006 to punish the North's first nuclear test.
posted 21 weeks ago
  9 jjth
SEOUL, South Korea - A photo of the North Korean leader recently shown on Pyongyang's state TV appears to be a doctored version of one published in April by the country's official news agency — a possible sign his health is worsening — South Korean media reported Monday.
posted 20 weeks ago
  10 buckojo
death market?
posted 20 weeks ago
  11 jjth
Patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer typically have a poor prognosis partly because the cancer usually causes no symptoms early on, leading to locally advanced or metastatic disease at time of diagnosis. Median survival from diagnosis is around 3 to 6 months; 5-year survival is less than 5%.
posted 18 weeks ago
  12 kruijs[Power User]
Also see: Patrick Swayze
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Swayze#Health
posted 18 weeks ago
  13 kruijs[Power User]
(btw: Swayze acknowledges that his chain smoking probably "had something to do with" his cancer; however, he still smokes....)
posted 18 weeks ago
whenever it is, it will not be soon enough. the man is slowly killing his nation, their bodies and minds are stunted by malnutrition. I hope his son is a bit more sensible...
posted 18 weeks ago
  15 sqlman[Admin]
"I hope his son is a bit more sensible... "

From what I've heard/read, he's a lot more of the same. ;-\ So long as a 'ruler' keeps his people right on the edge of starvation without actually going all the way over into it, there's little chance of rebellion; they're too weqk, to fight, but not yet to the mindset that they've nothing left to lose by uprising...
posted 18 weeks ago

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