Created Fri 9th Jan 2009 9:33pm PST by
eliminati
How many Hubdub users will have over 1 million dollars net worth at the end of 2009?
Background: There are 9 millionaires right now, and 2 more on the cusp. But money begets money, and it can start to swell as you get enough to make a lot of bets.
Will the top dawgs falter and sink into a hub recession? Or will many surge ahead like tech stocks of yesteryear?
Stake your claim in the future of the market!
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source - this one!
How many Hubdub users will have over 1 million dollars net worth at the end of 2009?
0 users
1-10 users
11-15
16-20
21-25
26-30
31-40
41-50
51-75
Over 75
Forecast history %
|
| 0 users | |
|
| 1-10 users | |
|
| 11-15 | |
|
| 16-20 | |
|
| 21-25 | |
|
| 26-30 | |
|
| 31-40 | |
|
| 41-50 | |
|
| 51-75 | |
|
| Over 75 | |
Settled as 21-25 on Sat 2nd Jan 12:52pm PST
Suspend date: Tue 15th Dec 2009 8:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 2nd Jan 12:52pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 15th Dec 2009 8:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods:
0 users: 1%, 1-10 users: 5%, 11-15: 20%, 16-20: 18%, 21-25: 18%, 26-30: 15%, 31-40: 10%, 41-50: 5%, 51-75: 5%, Over 75: 3%
Action history:
Created Fri 9th Jan 2009 9:33pm PST by
eliminati
Suspended Tue 15th Dec 2009 8:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Fri 1st Jan 10:53am PST by
tuff_sledding![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user")
:
there were 25 on Dec 31st, 2009 and that is still true today.
thanks
Settlement requested Fri 1st Jan 4:44pm PST by
mickeydaniel
:
Please settle as 21-25 at 12:01 AM on January 1, 2010.
Suspend date: Tue 15th Dec 2009 8:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 2nd Jan 12:52pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 15th Dec 2009 8:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Predictions (244)
16 weeks ago
teoman555
predicted
26-30 (H$100 at 4%)
19 weeks ago
philculp predicted
31-40 (H$250 at 1%)
19 weeks ago
philculp predicted
26-30 (H$750 at 20%)
Comments (16)
Comments: 16
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: show details
nigeleccles
Get widget!
keyeshoveden
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
It seems a LOCK that 25 people will hit a milli, and if ANY of the 3 people at 800k+ are conscious, at least one of them will.
Honestly, I would think 31-40 has a greater likelihood than 21-25, with 26-30 being the sweet spot.
There are this inactive players on the first three pages of the leaderboard - be careful how you count them in these small numbers & high leaderboard questions.
It usually helps to check their quarterly earnings.
Barring some outrageous stretch of miracle predictions by at least 2 people, there is no way in hell it will go over 25. I was totally wrong.
kennyk 972K (should make it)
zvassil 932K (will make it)
mickeydaniel 818K (maybe - needs higher pace)
erik 767K (not likely)
sharon91977 763K (not likely)
drzinternet 685K (not likely)
my guess 24
Congrats to zvassil
Congrats to kennyk
mickeydaniel 862K (looks better maybe )
still no #26 in sight
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