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Will the S&P 500 close below 575 during 2009?

Background: The S&P 500 dropped 35% during the year 2008. How likely is it that this stock index will have a repeat performance, dropping another 35% in the year 2009?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
1%
No
99%
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Mon 14th Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 6%

Action history:

Created Mon 12th Jan 8:50pm PST by fundo
Changed Suspend date Wed 15th Jul 6:34am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2010-01-01 23:59:00"

Suspend date: Mon 14th Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (38)

2 weeks ago
bangalore19 predicted No (H$100 at 99%)
14 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted Yes (H$100 at 7%)
15 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted No (H$3,000 at 93%)
17 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted No (H$2,000 at 92%)
18 weeks ago
guruzilla predicted Yes (H$10 at 9%)

Comments (2)

  1 rogerkni
"There's good support at zero."
--Michael Panzner
posted 39 weeks ago
roger, you're one stubborn bear! The meltdown you expected has not come and will not come, it's time to come to your senses and accept reality....
posted 28 weeks ago

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