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By when will the US have had 3 consecutive quarters of GDP growth?

Background: We are looking for 3 consecutive quarters of growth in order to even out fluctuations on a quarterly basis and to demonstrate a sustained economic recovery.

The answer should reflect the last quarter of the 3 growth quarters.

Settlement details:As reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis - most easily seen in this chart: http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/gdp.htm

 
Forecast history %
Q2 2009
0%
Q3 2009
0%
Q4 2009
0%
Q1 2010
43%
Q2 2010
0%
Q3 2010
3%
Q4 2010
25%
Q1 2011
7%
Q2 2011
6%
Not by the start of Q3 2011
17%
Question suspends in 39 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 8th Aug 2010 11:59pm PST (39 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Q2 2009: 10%, Q3 2009: 10%, Q4 2009: 10%, Q1 2010: 10%, Q2 2010: 10%, Q3 2010: 10%, Q4 2010: 10%, Q1 2011: 10%, Q2 2011: 10%, Not by the start of Q3 2011 : 10%

Action history:

Created Wed 14th Jan 10:44am PST by willbank
Changed Suspend date Sat 8th Aug 3:32am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-09-10 23:59:00"

Suspend date: Sun 8th Aug 2010 11:59pm PST (39 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (2964)

16 hours ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted Q1 2010 (H$1,000 at 44%)
17 hours ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted Q1 2010 (H$1,000 at 42%)
19 hours ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted Q2 2011 (H$100 at 3%)
19 hours ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted Q1 2011 (H$100 at 3%)
19 hours ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted Q3 2010 (H$100 at 2%)

Comments (19)

  1 deanthoreau
when hell freezes over :) if u had that option i would have a choice then
posted 42 weeks ago
Updated: Q1 2009 GDP now available
http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/gdp.htm
posted 27 weeks ago
  3 excavator
Comment on #2. What catastrophic event happened in the last quarter of 2008? Or is the chart accidentally printed upside down?
posted 27 weeks ago
Are you talking about the "Gross Domestic Product"?
posted 27 weeks ago
  5 excavator
Yes.
posted 27 weeks ago
One of the straws that buried the camel was Bush: "I've abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system, to make sure the economy doesn't collapse." Brilliant... NOT!

Many places to lay the blame... but looking to the future we have Obama's gang of very qualified tax cheats piling up massive debt against the faith and credit of future generations... "The pain has trickled up!"

"Believe," "Hope," "Change," "Just words?"
posted 27 weeks ago
I think part of the problem was when people saw the Democrats and the Mavericks all agreeing that the only way to recover everything was with a TARP plan.

The auto industry, banking, and insurance sectors would all have a large effect on the the Gross Domestic Product
posted 27 weeks ago
  8 bayoubear[Admin]
Question is being extended since we haven't even had one quarter yet and the question runs into 2011...so let's move the suspension date to August, 2010...
posted 13 weeks ago
I wish "When moneys fly out of my butt" was an option.
posted 13 weeks ago
the trouble with you, EX, is that you live in the past....
posted 6 weeks ago
It's pretty much a forgone conclusion that Q3-09 will be positive, probably at least +2.0%, some think +3.5%. I expect to see some slowdown in Q4-09, but not likely to go negative. Q1-10 is highly likely to go + as well, so I don't get why so much money is being piled on Not-in-a-million-years here. Must be some old "double-dip recession" holdovers. IT'S NOT GONNA HAPPEN.
posted 3 weeks ago
Industrial output increased at a 5.2 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter, the Fed said, the largest quarterly gain since the first three months of 2005. It's also the first quarterly increase since the beginning of 2008. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Industrial-output-up-more-apf-1970477766.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
posted 3 weeks ago
Well, a 3.5% growth in GDP is not bad, for starts. Of course, some of this was clunker and government stimulus driven, but only about half of the nearly 800 billion stimulus money has been spent so far, so there will be continuing influx into the economy for a while. The growth rate will likely slow down a bit, but should be comfortably positive for the next two quarters. It will be a tidy sum I will collect come next February. :-)
posted 1 week ago
  14 zvassil
Well, even half a year is a long time...
posted 1 week ago
  15 bgrigore
This could be settled at the earliest in May next year.
posted 1 week ago
OK, my bad, you are right BG, I was not thinking clearly. I can wait - it will be worth it.
posted 1 week ago
FYI, q2 2010 is not possible. Think about it...
posted 1 week ago
Pretty good start for Q4 09!
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. manufacturing sector grew in October for the third consecutive month and at a faster rate than was expected.
The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 55.7 in October from 52.6 in September. The median forecast of 74 economists surveyed by Reuters was for a reading of 53.
The October reading was the highest since 56.0 in April 2006.
posted 5 days ago

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