Created Thu 15th Jan 12:03pm PST by

reuters Level 7, Pro (H$3,320)

Which bailout recipient will have the best performing stock in H1 2009?

Settled as Morgan Stanley

It wound up pretty close, but Morgan Stanley came out ahead

MS closed Dec. 31 at 16.04 and closed June 30 at 28.51, a gain of 77.74 percent, best of the betting options (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=MS).
GS closed Dec. 31 at 84.39 and closed June 30 at 147.44, a gain of 74.71 percent (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=GS).

Thanks to Brian for the help in settling

Background:

Question created by

Background: A new Nasdaq index of companies that received bailout funds from the U.S. government offers an easy way to track their performance. Which of these index members will perform the best in the first half of the year? You can track their performance here <a href="http://snipurl.com/a4jao">http://snipurl.com/a4jao<;/a> and read more about the index here: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5073TP20090108">http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5073TP20090108<;/a>

Settlement details:As shown here http://snipurl.com/a4jao

Forecast history %

AIG

Bank of America

Citigroup

General Motors

Goldman Sachs

40%

JP Morgan

Morgan Stanley

57%

Settled as Morgan Stanley on Fri 3rd Jul 6:34am PST

Activity: H$53,232
Predictions: 142
Comments: 11

Suspend date: Fri 26th Jun 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 3rd Jul 6:34am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 26th Jun 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: AIG: 20%, Bank of America: 10%, Citigroup: 10%, General Motors: 20%, Goldman Sachs: 20%, JP Morgan: 10%, Morgan Stanley: 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 15th Jan 12:03pm PST by

reuters Level 7, Pro (H$3,320)

Suspended Fri 26th Jun 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settled as 'Morgan Stanley' Fri 3rd Jul 6:34am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: It wound up pretty close, but Morgan Stanley came out ahead

MS closed Dec. 31 at 16.04 and closed June 30 at 28.51, a gain of 77.74 percent, best of the betting options (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=MS).
GS closed Dec. 31 at 84.39 and closed June 30 at 147.44, a gain of 74.71 percent (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=GS).

Thanks to Brian for the help in settling

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Predictions (142)

21 weeks ago

miamicocodrilo Level 1, Newbie (H$218)

predicted Bank of America (H$20 at 1%)

21 weeks ago

pita_soup Level 13, Psychic (H$61,313)

predicted Goldman Sachs (H$400 at 44%)

21 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,691,295)

predicted Morgan Stanley (H$2,000 at 44%)

21 weeks ago

bigbadwolf Level 10, Genius (H$10,002)

predicted Goldman Sachs (H$1,691 at 56%)

22 weeks ago

horsefeathers Level 12, Guru (H$34,412)

predicted Goldman Sachs (H$100 at 48%)

Comments (11)

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$601,037)

reuters - the site to track the companies has been removed or set to private. can you fix that?

posted 44 weeks ago

brian72975 Level 15, Seer (H$424,167)

Some bold picks here... BAC is down 49%, worst of all. Lot of ground to make up.

posted 43 weeks ago

reuters Level 7, Pro (H$3,320)

Dieseldog - Here's the URL for the TARP portfolio. Sorry it's so long.

http://portfolio.us.reuters.com/US/public/overview.asp?YYY622_ZR7W9Tj38Ha87gPGjLOY6mEP/jWxl2Q+wq5YByQirrIF0A7nUSXxarLD5Ce82jZKYaeJfLKb5A0/P4v9n9fZQAvdSslT0j3Xh2fzdXs6Y51odirTuh1TeLTtfkMgcJ6z

posted 43 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$601,037)

reuters - thanks. the link you just posted opens to a blank page. (1-24-09 2am EST) the problem might be on my end. i'll check it again in a few days.

posted 43 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$601,037)

reuters - still coming up set to private or removed. is it only me or is anybody else getting that?

posted 42 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Please indicate the starting prices for the stocks listed as options. Otherwise there is no way to know what we are betting on. The link no longer works. Everybody can create their own tracking portfolio if we just had the starting price!

posted 41 weeks ago

brian72975 Level 15, Seer (H$424,167)

I have:

AIG 1.57
BAC 14.08
C 6.71
GM 3.20
GS 84.39
JPM 31.53
MS 16.04

Those were the closing prices on the last day of 2008. Anyone disagree? I know it's not my question, but numbers are numbers.

posted 41 weeks ago

brian72975 Level 15, Seer (H$424,167)

That link works for me, BTW... but it shows way more stocks than are listed as options for this bet, and doesn't show the cumulative gain/loss, only the daily.

posted 41 weeks ago

reuters Level 7, Pro (H$3,320)

Apologies for the problems. That link is now working again. The portfolio lists all the stocks in the TARP index, but we've selected just a handful of the best known for the purposes of this question. We're still adding features to this new community portfolio section, so I've asked our developers if they can add a year-to-date option for tracking performance. You can already track past six months, which is what we'll use for the purposes of settling the question at the end of June.

posted 41 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,691,295)

Based on today's price (2/6/09) only Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are up, the rest have dropped.

posted 41 weeks ago

brian72975 Level 15, Seer (H$424,167)

Three trading days to go and it's a toss-up.

MS 27.87 (+73.75%)
GS 144.43 (+71.15%)

Or if you believe in miracles:

JPM 34.14 (+8.28%)
AIG 1.46 (-7.01%)
BAC 12.35 (-12.29%)
C 3.03 (-54.84%)
GM... um... yeah, about that.

posted 21 weeks ago

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