Created Thu 15th Jan 6:17pm PST by

oppugner Level 14, Prophet (H$113,250)

Will all 6 Space Shuttle missions scheduled for 2009 launch in 2009?

Settled as No

As Endeavour's launch has now been moved to February, it is highly unlikely that it will be moved forward again and launch in 2009.
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html

This question is thus being settled on the 99.9% rule. Should the launch somehow be moved back to 2009, this question will of course be resettled.

Background:

Background: There are currently 6 Space Shuttle launches scheduled for 2009. If all 6 launch this year it will be the first time that NASA has launched more than 5 shuttles in a year since 2001.

STS-119 (Discovery) to the ISS targeted for a 12 Feb launch.
STS-125 (Atlantis) - Hubble servicing mission targeted for a 12 May launch.
STS-127 (Endeavour) to the ISS targeted for a May 15 launch.
STS-128 (Atlantis) to the ISS targeted for an August 6 launch.
STS-129 (Discovery) to the ISS targeted for a 12 Nov. launch.
STS-130 (Endeavour) to the ISS targeted for a December 10 launch.

Will all 6 of these missions actually launch during 2009?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. For the purposes of this question a launch is a shuttle leaving the ground. It does not have to reach orbit, it does not even have to clear the tower, it just has to leave the ground to count.
To settle as yes, the 6 specific missions (STS-xxx) mentioned in the background must all launch. For example, if STS-128 is pushed back but STS-131 is brought forward then then question will settle as no.

Forecast history %

Yes

52%

48%

Settled as No on Thu 28th May 1:48pm PST

Activity: H$64,690
Predictions: 126
Comments: 10

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 8:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Thu 28th May 1:48pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 21st May 10am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Thu 15th Jan 6:17pm PST by

oppugner Level 14, Prophet (H$113,250)

Suspended Thu 28th May 1:34pm PST by

tisha

Suspended Thu 28th May 1:34pm PST by

tisha

: checking question

Settled as 'No' Thu 28th May 1:48pm PST by

tisha

: As Endeavour's launch has now been moved to February, it is highly unlikely that it will be moved forward again and launch in 2009.
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html

This question is thus being settled on the 99.9% rule. Should the launch somehow be moved back to 2009, this question will of course be resettled.

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Predictions (126)

25 weeks ago

tgallag2 Level 13, Psychic (H$55,846)

predicted No (H$300 at 60%)

25 weeks ago

tomrcraver Level 10, Genius (H$11,115)

predicted No (H$1,000 at 58%)

25 weeks ago

tomrcraver Level 10, Genius (H$11,115)

predicted No (H$2,000 at 55%)

25 weeks ago

tomrcraver Level 10, Genius (H$11,115)

predicted No (H$2,000 at 50%)

26 weeks ago

freeze Level 9, Expert (H$7,898)

predicted Yes (H$20 at 52%)

Comments (10)

rassi

Feb 12th launch of Discovery delayed due to engine issue....
http://techfragments.com/news/390/Science/Space_Shuttle_Discovery_Launch_Delayed_Due_to_Engine_Issue.html

posted 41 weeks ago

rassi

It appears as if May's launch to service the Hubble may now be in jeopardy due to the recent collision of those two satellites, as the debris upped the risk of catastrophic impact....
http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/02/gonehubblegone.html

posted 39 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,688,538)

posted 39 weeks ago

rassi

Shuttle Discovery's launch delayed for the 4th time....
http://sciencio.com/astronomy/6-1/631-the-launch-of-the-space-shuttle-discovery-is-delayed-for-a-fourth-time.html

posted 39 weeks ago

emmag

I will be in watching distance for the two May launches. Keeping my fingers crossed that they are on schedule!

posted 32 weeks ago

emmag

According to nasa.gov, Atlantis has been rolled to the pad.

posted 32 weeks ago

tomrcraver Level 10, Genius (H$11,115)

Latest schedule (updated May 21, http://www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html ) for remaining 2009 flights is:\\r
\\n\\r
\\nEndeavour - June 13\\r
\\nDiscovery - Aug 6\\r
\\nAtlantis - Nov 12\\r
\\n\\r
\\nThen in 2010:\\r
\\nEndeavour - Feb 4, 2010\\r
\\n\\r
\\nI suppose anything is possible, but NASA rarely pulls IN their schedule...

posted 25 weeks ago

tomrcraver Level 10, Genius (H$11,115)

Wow - what\'s with the visible control characters?

posted 25 weeks ago

tisha

Thanks for pointing this out tom - I agree that NASA rarely pulls in this schedule so this question has been settled for now. Unfortunately, i\'ve had to cancel your positions on the market though

posted 25 weeks ago

tomrcraver Level 10, Genius (H$11,115)

Fair I suppose - I didn\'t realize it was settled on the schedule, rather than actuality by end of year.

posted 25 weeks ago

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