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Will the US experience double digit inflation during 2009?

Background: The Federal Reserve has set interest rates at an all time low. Historically rates this low are considered to have an inflationary tendency over time. Obama has also indicated that once he becomes president he will attempt to spend the country out of debt.

http://caps.fool.com/blogs/viewpost.aspx?bpid=131431&t=01004207525612627963

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
2%
No
98%
Question suspends in 1 week

Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Sat 17th Jan 6:25am PST by ai_robots_480
Changed Suspend date Mon 2nd Feb 6:03am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-12-31 23:59:00"

Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 11:59pm PST (1 week to go) details

 

Predictions (199)

1 day ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted No (H$10,000 at 97%)
3 weeks ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted No (H$10,000 at 96%)
3 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted No (H$5,000 at 94%)
3 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted No (H$2,500 at 93%)
11 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted No (H$2,500 at 92%)

Comments (7)

We're lucky to not have double-digit deflation.
posted 44 weeks ago
  2 frogchop
Agreed, Tom.
posted 44 weeks ago
  3 deanthoreau
Why is it that is is called " stimulate the economy" when its a republican and
"Obama has also indicated that once he becomes president he will attempt to spend the country out of debt. when it is a democrat?

right now because of georges economic policies barack has 2 options:

1. let a bunch of major corporations implode,,let a bunch of banks implode, let wall street implode in a manner that will make 29 look like a blip
OR
increase the deficit to kick in some money on fedral projects to sort of rob peter to pay paul for a fiew yesrs ...to ease the credit crunch and wall street a tad..and major corporations problmes...so a small breath can come in and we can slowly ease into recovery...very very slowly....

Either way he will end up being a one term president...cuase we americans have bought into instatn gratification, i want it now for so long that we dont understnad that the mess that was created is going to take aobut 10 years to really get cleaned up!
posted 44 weeks ago
From the December CPI Summary:

"For the 12 month period ending December 2008, the CPI-U rose 0.1
percent. This was the smallest calendar year increase since a 0.7 percent
decline in 1954 and compares with a 4.1 percent increase for the 12 months
ended December 2007. Consumer prices declined at a seasonally adjusted
annualized rate (SAAR) of 12.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.
This followed increases during the first three quarters at rates of 3.1,
7.9, and 2.6 percent, respectively."
"Excluding food and energy, the CPI declined at a 0.3 percent SAAR
during the last quarter of 2008, after increasing at rates of 2.0, 2.5,
and 2.7 percent during the first three quarters, respectively. The 1.8
percent increase for all of 2008 compares to 2.4 percent during 2007 and
is the smallest one-year increase since 2003. The smaller increase
reflects slower advances in prices for shelter and medical care as well as
a decline in the price of new and used motor vehicles."
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

I think deflation is a bigger risk than double digit inflation. True, energy accounts for much of the decrease, but interest rates are already as low as they can go. The Fed is out of ammo.
posted 43 weeks ago
  5 frogchop
The fed is infusing as much money as they can, but there's no velocity in the economy, so it's not leading to inflation now. Once the economy starts to pick up again, that's when we'll be screwed by inflation. If the question were about double digit inflation by 2012, I'd say it's a near certainty, but for at least the first half of 2009, deflation should rule.
posted 41 weeks ago
  6 daddeoh
Here is a relevant commentary:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7902019.stm
posted 38 weeks ago
interesting to read the doom and gloom commentary from early this year....
posted 3 weeks ago

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