Created Thu 22nd Jan 5:26am PST by

81st Academy Awards: Who will win the Oscar for Best Actor?

Settled as Sean Penn (Milk)

Background: Background: Heavy favorite Sean Penn has been losing ground lately - partly due to his blatant snubbing of the Golden Globes. The falling buzz is bound to help the chances of front runner Mickey Rourke.

My early Oscar predictions
Regularly updated expert predictions

My FINAL Oscar predictions

Winners will be announced at the live Ceremony in LA on Feb 22, starting at 530pm PT.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Sean Penn (Milk)

63%

Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)

29%

Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)

Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)

Brad Pitt (Curious Case of Benjamin Button)

Settled as Sean Penn (Milk) on Sun 22nd Feb 8:56pm PST

Activity: H$275,446
Predictions: 1126
Comments: 13

Suspend date: Sun 22nd Feb 5:30pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 22nd Feb 8:56pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 22nd Feb 5:30pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Sean Penn (Milk): 30%, Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler): 30%, Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon): 15%, Richard Jenkins (The Visitor): 15%, Brad Pitt (Curious Case of Benjamin Button): 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 22nd Jan 5:26am PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

Changed Description Thu 19th Feb 5:59pm PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

: show details

... Background: Heavy favorite Sean Penn has ... of front runner Mickey Rourke~~. <~~. <a href="http:// ... /">My early Oscar predictions</a~~> <~~> <a href="http://www. ... ">Regularly updated expert predictions</a~~> <~~> <a href="http://newspundits.hubdub.com/2009/02/final-oscar-predictions/">My FINAL Oscar predictions</a> Winners will be

Suspended Sun 22nd Feb 5:30pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Sun 22nd Feb 8:44pm PST by

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,279)

: sean penn wins

Settled as 'Sean Penn (Milk)' Sun 22nd Feb 8:56pm PST by

jenniandboys [Admin]

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Predictions (1126)

39 weeks ago

firechild Level 12, Guru (H$44,159)

predicted Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) (H$100 at 28%)

39 weeks ago

firechild Level 12, Guru (H$44,159)

predicted Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) (H$100 at 26%)

39 weeks ago

langbenj Level 10, Genius (H$14,980)

predicted Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) (H$300 at 23%)

39 weeks ago

nocheesie Level 13, Psychic (H$58,581)

predicted Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) (H$200 at 20%)

39 weeks ago

pmk2668 Level 15, Seer (H$467,597)

predicted Sean Penn (Milk) (H$2,000 at 67%)

Comments (13)

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$601,421)

thanks again to jenni for creating the oscar questions. not really my cup of tea, but i'm sure alot of other folk will enjoy wagering on them. goodluck betters.

posted 43 weeks ago

ryanb37 Level 12, Guru (H$30,706)

I watched the Wrestler and I will be absolutly shocked if he does not win he did an amazing job

posted 43 weeks ago

oli_g2000 Level 1, Newbie (H$1)

i hear Brad was gonna steal it!

posted 41 weeks ago

smallape Level 7, Pro (H$4,117)

Mickey Rourke won the Best Actor gong the BAFTAs

posted 41 weeks ago

pmk2668 Level 15, Seer (H$467,597)

I like Michey Rourke, but that was a one time deal.....It will be Penn.

posted 40 weeks ago

conspiracy2riot Level 13, Psychic (H$97,941)

I didn't see "The Wrestler", but I did see "Milk" and it was superb and really timely, coming on the heels of Prop 8 and the election.

Penn is simply one of the best actors out there.

posted 39 weeks ago

kapacs Level 1, Newbie (H$1)

I doubt Penn is going to get it, my money is on Rourke. I wanted Brad to win though, I think he finally took a role seriously and proved he can be a quality actor.

posted 39 weeks ago

pmk2668 Level 15, Seer (H$467,597)

If you think Penn is not going to get itthen start tossing $ into thhe ring....I have seen neither film and I like what I see from Rourke alot more for my personal tastes. That being said, Penn is the big odds on favorite to win.

Remember that there have to be some changes from the "leaked list" if it even really is one. Rourke is the winner on the list.....little doubt that the list is going to have some changes on it. At least HUBbudders believe it is currently fake at 12%. http://www.hubdub.com/m33257/Oscar_Winners_List_Leak_or_Fake

posted 39 weeks ago

ryanb37 Level 12, Guru (H$30,706)

I SAY BS!!!!!

posted 38 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,279)

crappo choice

posted 38 weeks ago

conspiracy2riot Level 13, Psychic (H$97,941)

did you see him in 'Milk" cool? he was superb. and the subject matter of the movie just has to blow smoke on a wrestling movie, although i'll probably watch it at some point.

posted 38 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

We were actually the only prediction exchange to get this one right! Too cool. http://newspundits.hubdub.com/2009/02/hubdub-takes-home-the-gold-at-the-oscars/

Personally, I think the prop 8 stuff definitely helped to give Penn the edge. You really have to think about who/where the Academy voters are... and I made a nice pretty penny on this market!!

posted 38 weeks ago

cici

@Jenni, you make a pretty nice penny on EVERY movie market!! This was the only market I got right.

posted 38 weeks ago

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score: 10

Scorecard: Oscar nominees

Los Angeles Times 39 weeks ago

for the 81st annual Academy Awards. The Envelope January 22, 2009 PHOTOS: Nominees | Nominee reactions BEST PICTURE 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button' 'Frost/Nixon' 'Milk' 'The Reader' 'Slumdog Millionaire' BEST ACTRESS Anne Hathaway, 'Rachel Getting

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British hopes high for Oscar success

Channel 4 News 39 weeks ago

Danny Boyle. The rags-to-riches tale, which has already bagged seven Baftas and four Golden Globes is vying with The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk and The Reader for the coveted best picture award. Kate Winslet is hoping the Academy

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List of 81st Academy Awards nominees in major categories

Economictimes 39 weeks ago

'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button' 'The Reader' Best Actor in a Leading Role: Richard Jenkins 'The Visitor' Sean Penn 'Milk' Frank Langella 'Frost/Nixon' Mickey Rourke 'The Wrestler' Brad Pitt 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button' Best

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List of 81st Academy Awards nominees

Economictimes 39 weeks ago

Sunday's 81st annual Academy Awards. Best Picture: 'Slumdog Millionaire' 'Milk' 'Frost/Nixon' 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button' 'The Reader' Best Actor in a Leading Role: Richard Jenkins 'The Visitor' Sean Penn 'Milk' Frank Langella 'Frost/Nixon'

score: 10

Readers poll results for best actor

San Francisco Chronicle 41 weeks ago

How our critics compare with our online reader poll. Total votes: 1,512. 53% Sean Penn, 'Milk' 26% Mickey Rourke, 'The Wrestler' 8% Frank Langella, 'Frost/Nixon' 8% Brad Pitt, 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button' 6% Richard Jenkins, 'The Visitor' Mickey

81st Academy Awards: Who will win the Oscar for Best Actor?

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81st Academy Awards: Who will win the Oscar for Best Actor?

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