Created Thu 22nd Jan 5:22pm PST by

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$155,722)

When will the first detainee leave Guantanamo?

Settled as Before May 1, 2009

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7905657.stm

Background:

Background: In approximately seven years, 800 suspected terrorists have been detained at Guantanamo Bay. On January 22, 2009, President Obama announced plans to close the detention camp there. A commission will be assembled to determined what to do with the 250 detainees remaining there.

Of the people detained on Guantanamo on January 22, 2009, when will the first one leave Guantanamo?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Before May 1, 2009

93%

Between May 1, 2009 and July 31, 2009

Between August 1, 2009 and October 31, 2009

Between November 1, 2009 and January 31, 2010

Other

Settled as Before May 1, 2009 on Mon 23rd Feb 5:48am PST

Activity: H$34,731
Predictions: 64
Comments: 4

Suspend date: Sun 31st Jan 2010 8:59pm PST (10 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Mon 23rd Feb 5:48am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 23rd Feb 5:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Before May 1, 2009: 15%, Between May 1, 2009 and July 31, 2009: 40%, Between August 1, 2009 and October 31, 2009: 30%, Between November 1, 2009 and January 31, 2010: 10%, Other: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 22nd Jan 5:22pm PST by

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$155,722)

Settlement requested Mon 23rd Feb 4:16am PST by

arleyguy Level 12, Guru (H$48,332)

: Foreign office has now confirmed that Binyam Mohamed is released and on a flight back to the UK, arriving later today. For the purposes of the question, it is not confirmed by BBC and UK gov't that he has 'left Guantanamo'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7905657.stm

Settlement requested Mon 23rd Feb 4:17am PST by

arleyguy Level 12, Guru (H$48,332)

: sorry -typo in last request, I did of course mean 'now' rather than 'not' :-)

Settlement requested Mon 23rd Feb 5:45am PST by

arleyguy Level 12, Guru (H$48,332)

: landed now, all confirmed

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7905657.stm

Settled as 'Before May 1, 2009' Mon 23rd Feb 5:48am PST by

destry [Admin]

: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7905657.stm

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Predictions (64)

38 weeks ago

arleyguy Level 12, Guru (H$48,332)

predicted Before May 1, 2009 (H$718 at 92%)

38 weeks ago

arleyguy Level 12, Guru (H$48,332)

predicted Before May 1, 2009 (H$5,755 at 84%)

39 weeks ago

arleyguy Level 12, Guru (H$48,332)

predicted Before May 1, 2009 (H$2,880 at 80%)

39 weeks ago

arleyguy Level 12, Guru (H$48,332)

predicted Before May 1, 2009 (H$2,500 at 65%)

41 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Between May 1, 2009 and July 31, 2009 (H$100 at 29%)

Comments (4)

notablenotices [Power User]

This was obviously from before the question started, but relevant:

Report: Ex-Gitmo detainee joins al-Qaida in Yemen
http://www.eveningsun.com/ci_11535884

posted 43 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

no one ever said that all of the detainees were good guys. it been known from the beginning that released detainees went back to where they came from. and I assume some of the detainees even got to these organizations only because they were Gitmo detainees.

I think we all agree that Guantanamo was not intended to be a conversion camp, to make good guys from the bad guys. and in fact, they way detainees were treated - I think it works even more the other way around. and I ask you: are you really surprised that it turns out to be so?

posted 43 weeks ago

fingers_of_fury Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,428,600)

Club Gitmo Only $42/ Night
http://www.inquisitr.com/23/club-gitmo-only-42-night/

Purchase Club Gitmo Gear and be the envy of your neighbors:
https://members.premiereinteractive.com/store/28566/41841.html

My personal favorite:
The Club G'itmo T-Shirt - Your Tropical Retreat from the Stress of Jihad

posted 43 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

that's a nice answer to my question

posted 43 weeks ago

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