Created Fri 23rd Jan 8:12am PST by 
greggles
greggles When will Internet Explorer fall below 50% market share (worldwide)?
Background: In the late 1990s and early 2000s the "browser wars" were HOT. Microsoft eventually trounced Netscape gaining over 90% of the market share. Netscape spun out Mozilla which has been eating up market share from Microsoft's Internet Explorer at a fairly predictable speed. Now that the Mac is growing in popularity with Safari as the default browser and Google has launched their Chrome browser there is real competition that could unseat Internet Explorer from the top of the throne.
Note: the question is not about another browser becoming more popular than IE, a more likely and useful outcome (useful to web developers) will be the day that IE is no longer used by the Majority of users so that it can stop being such a strong pain point.
Note: the question is not about another browser becoming more popular than IE, a more likely and useful outcome (useful to web developers) will be the day that IE is no longer used by the Majority of users so that it can stop being such a strong pain point.
Settlement details:As reported by a full month report from http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=0 assuming that Net Applications is still in business and providing this data. Otherwise, as reported by a major news source.
Forecast history %
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Question suspends in 2 years
- Activity: H$6,945 |
- Predictions: 52 |
Comments: 3
Get widget!Predictions (52)
sevenfivethree
predicted 2011 (H$20 at 23%)
predicted 2011 (H$50 at 24%)
ghosttie
predicted 2010 (H$50 at 48%)
predicted 2010 (H$100 at 47%)Comments (3)
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This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
score: 10
Slate Magazine 27 weeks ago
Last fall, called Chrome that is speedy, elegant, and reliable. Just ask the 1.42 percent of people who use it. Chrome has simply failed to catch on in its eight months of existence
score: 10
IOL 27 weeks ago
Washington - Google has floated its first US television advertisements, a campaign to promote its Web browser Chrome, which has captured just a tiny share of a market dominated by Microsoft's Internet
score: 10
Sydney Morning Herald 27 weeks ago
Google has floated its first US television advertisements, a campaign to promote its Web browser Chrome, which has captured just a tiny share of a market dominated by Microsoft's Internet
score: 10
Guardian Unlimited 27 weeks ago
Google has launched its first television advertising campaign across a range of US networks. The company's TV adverts are an attempt to draw the public's attention to Chrome, the
score: 10
Morningstar.com 28 weeks ago
SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)-Google Inc. (GOOG) plans to promote its Chrome Internet browser with a television commercial that will begin airing on at least one U.S. network this weekend, making it the search company's first national TV ad campaign
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I am a Firefox man, myself.
January 2007: 80%
June 2007: 79%
January 2008: 75%
June 2008: 73%
December 2009: 68%
In other words, the declines in usage over 6 months were: 1%, 4%, 2%, 5%.
If 2009 and 2010 see a change that is the same as last year, this will occur in 2011.
If the pace accelerates (Safari, Chrome...) then 2010 or 2009 become possibilities.
If Microsoft miraculously stems the tide of migration to Mac/Linux desktops OR provides features in IE8 that gets Firefox users to switch back...it could be settled as 2012 or beyond.
I'm the growth of Safari will increase at an increasing rate and that Google will market Chrome more aggressively to close this in 2009 or 2010.
October 2009: IE 64.64% http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=0&qpmr=100&qpdt=1&qpct=3&qptimeframe=M&qpsp=129
So, 9 percent fall over the last year. If next year is similar it will be about 53 or 52% at 2010 year end. That's assuming a trend very similar to what we've seen over the last few years. With Google Chrome out of beta and more likely to land an "installed by default" deal and Apple continuing to grow...it seems like 2010 could be the year.
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