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Will an extrasolar moon be discovered in 2009?

Background: Scientists have found nearly 300 planets outside of our own solar system, but have yet to find a single moon. But the search continues. Will 2009 be the year that the first extrasolar moon is discovered?

For details, see http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25064934

Settlement details:Question will settle as yes if NASA or an agency of similar reputation and profile makes an official announcement of the discovery of a moon outside of our solar system, and is reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
10%
No
90%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Fri 23rd Jan 2:29pm PST by loren

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (54)

1 week ago
bernardo predicted No (H$1,000 at 89%)
4 weeks ago
vex_ predicted No (H$1,000 at 89%)
4 weeks ago
fellcolor predicted No (H$10,000 at 85%)
5 weeks ago
bipedprimate predicted No (H$100 at 81%)
5 weeks ago
bipedprimate predicted No (H$50 at 81%)

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