Created Fri 23rd Jan 2009 2:29pm PST by

Will an extrasolar moon be discovered in 2009?

Settled as No

No extrasolar moons have been found yet...

Background:

Background: Scientists have found nearly 300 planets outside of our own solar system, but have yet to find a single moon. But the search continues. Will 2009 be the year that the first extrasolar moon is discovered?

For details, see http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25064934

Settlement details:Question will settle as yes if NASA or an agency of similar reputation and profile makes an official announcement of the discovery of a moon outside of our solar system, and is reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

97%

Settled as No on Fri 1st Jan 10:58am PST

Activity: H$44,865
Predictions: 72
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 10:58am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Fri 23rd Jan 2009 2:29pm PST by

loren

Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Fri 1st Jan 7:55am PST by

jake

: No report of an extrasolar moon being discovered.

Settled as 'No' Fri 1st Jan 10:58am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: No extrasolar moons have been found yet...

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Predictions (72)

11 weeks ago

terryharper Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,128)

predicted No (H$100 at 97%)

11 weeks ago

keyeshoveden [Power User]

predicted No (H$10,000 at 95%)

12 weeks ago

arnos

predicted No (H$180 at 94%)

15 weeks ago

joffi

predicted No (H$100 at 90%)

17 weeks ago

bernardo Level 15, Seer (H$355,655)

predicted No (H$1,000 at 89%)

Comments (1)

dragon01 Level 14, Prophet (H$151,884)

Often, these discoveries are made and not announced for several weeks or months. I would take the question at face value..."discovered in 2009" even if the announcement doesn't come til sometime in 2010.

posted 13 weeks ago