Created Fri 23rd Jan 3:27pm PST by

Will the majority of Netflix titles be downloadable by the end of 2009?

Background: DVD rent-by-mail service Netflix has been steadily growing their catalog of downloadable movies. Currently, downloadables are a fraction of their total business, but they are increasing rapidly. Will more than half of Netflix's titles be downloadable by the end of 2009?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source, or on the Netflix website.

Forecast history %

Yes

10%

90%

Question suspends in 5 weeks

Activity: H$31,016
Predictions: 40
Comments: 1

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Fri 23rd Jan 3:27pm PST by

loren

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Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

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Predictions (40)

22 hours ago

ghosttie Level 12, Guru (H$31,906)

predicted No (H$100 at 90%)

1 week ago

fellcolor Level 15, Seer (H$374,748)

predicted No (H$10,000 at 87%)

9 weeks ago

jeremiahstover Level 1, Newbie (H$966)

predicted No (H$20 at 73%)

15 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,682,776)

predicted No (H$500 at 72%)

19 weeks ago

deanmarktaylor Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,179)

predicted No (H$100 at 72%)

Comments (1)

loren

This is actually becoming a fairly interesting question I'd originally created it last year as kind of a lark, but now the numbers are making this very interesting. As of today, 12,000 of their 100,000 titles are downloadable. That's 12%, starting from 0% this time last year. If they can create downloadables at precisely the same rate, they'll easily be able to double that. However, they probably WON'T do it at the same rate -- they're probably picking up the pace considerably. If they can add 38,000 titles this year, they'll be at 50% -- a majority.

I'm going to have to think hard before I drop money on this one. I think they might be able to pull this off.

posted 42 weeks ago

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