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Will a vaccine be announced by the next World Leprosy Day?

Background: From the Vatican:
MESSAGE OF CARD. JAVIER LOZANO BARRAGÁN
FOR THE 56th WORLD LEPROSY DAY
The annual celebration of the ‘World Leprosy Day’ is a great appointment of solidarity with our brothers and sisters who are afflicted by Hansen’s disease, a disease that is often ignored by the mass media but which still today strikes each year over 250,000 people, most of whom live in conditions of poverty.

According to the most recent calculations of the World Health Organisation, which refer to the year 2007, in that year there were 254,525 new leprosy cases, with 212,802 people already been treated for it.
Unfortunately, children are not speared this disease. According to the calculations of the AIFO (the Italian Association of the Friends of Raoul Follereau), ‘each year in the world there are 40,000 children with leprosy, and about 12% of all new cases of leprosy are children under the age fifteen’..."
to read more:
http://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/pontifical_councils/hlthwork/documents/rc_pc_hlthwork_doc_20090125_lebbra_en.html

A potential Vaccine is being studied at:
Thomas P. Gillis, Ph.D.
DHHS/HRSA/BPHC
Division of National Hansen's Disease Programs
Baton Rouge, La.
to read more:
http://svm369.vetmed.lsu.edu/GR_LIST.htm


Will there be a vaccine breakthrough on or before the 57th Annual world Leprosy Day?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source or the Vatican or by press release from Louisiana State University

 
Forecast history %
Vaccine Breakthrough is announced
12%
No announcement regarding any vaccine
80%
Leprosy Studies at LSU are discontinued
4%
any outcome not covered by other options
4%
Question suspends in 9 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 24th Jan 2010 11:59pm PST (9 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Vaccine Breakthrough is announced: 25%, No announcement regarding any vaccine: 55%, Leprosy Studies at LSU are discontinued: 10%, any outcome not covered by other options: 10%

Action history:

Created Sun 25th Jan 3:57am PST by misterbojangles

Suspend date: Sun 24th Jan 2010 11:59pm PST (9 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (20)

4 weeks ago
syne predicted No announcement regarding any vaccine (H$50 at 66%)
16 weeks ago
spacemonkey1229 predicted No announcement regarding any vaccine (H$20 at 67%)
16 weeks ago
aland predicted No announcement regarding any vaccine (H$100 at 66%)
16 weeks ago
dosman predicted No announcement regarding any vaccine (H$100 at 65%)
18 weeks ago
oxbridge predicted No announcement regarding any vaccine (H$50 at 65%)

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