tarpash
What will be the next major retailer to go out of business?
All remained in business without going bankrupt by year's end
Background:
This market will settle based on an annoucement that any of these companies are going out of business. For the purposes of this question, a retailer "going out of business" is defined as ceasing all independent retail operations. For example, the Forbes article mentions the Sharper Image which recently closed all of its stores but plans to license some of its products through other retailers. A case like the Sharper Image's would be considered "going out of business" since it is no longer a traditional retailer.
To be clear, when one of these companies announces it will going out of business, the market will settle then, no matter how long it actually takes them to close all of their stores.
*Note: this is a re-created market.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
| Eddie Bauer |
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| Pacific Sunwear |
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| Zales |
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| Lane Bryant |
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| Sears and/or Kmart (Sears Holdings) |
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| Pep Boys |
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| Timberland or Ann Taylor |
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| None go out of business by 12/31/09 |
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- Activity: H$42,151 |
- Predictions: 125 |
Comments: 3
Suspend date: Thu 10th Dec 2009 9:05am PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 6:33am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 10th Dec 2009 9:05am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Eddie Bauer: 15%, Pacific Sunwear: 15%, Zales: 19%, Lane Bryant: 15%, Sears and/or Kmart (Sears Holdings): 8%, Pep Boys: 15%, Timberland or Ann Taylor: 8%, None go out of business by 12/31/09: 5%
Action history:
tarpash 
horsefeathers
: Eddie Bauer declared bankruptcy
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/17/eddie-bauer-bankruptcy-re_n_216944.html
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Announcement of bankruptcy and sale was made Wednesday afternoon.
Thomson Reuters UPDATE 1-Eddie Bauer to file Chapter 11, get bought-WSJ 06.17.09, 02:26 PM EDT
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/06/17/afx6555931.html
bayoubear: Bankruptcy and sale did not result in Eddie Bauer closing, which is what was required for settlement.
Reopening for additional play, and settlement will be based on which company closes up and is no longer open for business.
horsefeathers: It's time bayoubear: All remained in business without going bankrupt by year's end 
Suspend date: Thu 10th Dec 2009 9:05am PST
Settlement date: Fri 1st Jan 6:33am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 10th Dec 2009 9:05am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (125)
predicted None go out of business by 12/31/09 (H$100 at 95%)
frogchop
predicted None go out of business by 12/31/09 (H$7,000 at 88%)
alandComments (3)
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The clothing retailer, which bought Lane Bryant from Columbus-based Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE:LTD) in 2001, said jobs will be eliminated at its Bensalem, Pa., headquarters along with brand headquarters elsewhere. Some open positions won’t be filled.
Spokeswoman Gayle Coolick said eight employees are being let go at Lane Bryant’s headquarters near Easton Town Center. Roughly 20 open positions won’t be filled at the office, which employs about 225 workers.
Charming Shoppes (NASDAQ:CHRS) said job cuts will save $12 million a year pretax in the fiscal year ending Jan. 30, 2010, offset by a $2 million charge to be taken in the fiscal fourth quarter.
The company in November unveiled a restructuring plan and said it hopes to save $100 million to $125 million over the next two years.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D98TOP201.htm
Reopening for additional play, and settlement will be based on which company closes up and is no longer open for business.
So it's open for play again...
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