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What will be the total number of Airbus A380 aircraft delivered by the end of 2009.

Background: The total will include 13 that have already been delivered.

Settlement details:Result shown at bottom of webpage 'Airbus for Analysts'
<a href="http://www.airbus.com/en/airbusfor/analysts/">http://www.airbus.com/en/airbusfor/analysts/<;/a>
or if webpage down at <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A380">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A380<;/a>

 
Forecast history %
less than 20
2%
20 - 25
15%
26 - 31
83%
32 - 37
0%
38+
0%
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 18th Dec 4:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: less than 20: 5%, 20 - 25: 20%, 26 - 31: 31%, 32 - 37: 39%, 38+: 5%

Action history:

Suspend date: Fri 18th Dec 4:59pm PST (3 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (61)

3 weeks ago
gtown[Power User] predicted 20 - 25 (H$8,000 at 51%)
3 weeks ago
gtown[Power User] predicted 20 - 25 (H$7,000 at 49%)
3 weeks ago
frogchop predicted 26 - 31 (H$500 at 58%)
3 weeks ago
glendippnall predicted 20 - 25 (H$60 at 30%)
6 weeks ago
gtown[Power User] predicted 26 - 31 (H$1,000 at 66%)

Comments (7)

It's only 18 so far. 9/29/09
posted 7 weeks ago
I take that back I think the number is 13. Hard to read the spread sheet.
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 uberin
It's 18
posted 7 weeks ago
  5 pics4d
the airbus site says 18...wikipedia says 19 for some reason...
posted 7 weeks ago
I see it's 18 now. EADS says the next plane, #19, will slip to January 2010 in lieu of a December 2009 delivery. So in any event the total should be either 18 or 19 deliveries by the end of 2009. Why is 26-31 bid up so high?

Airbus cut its 2009 delivery target on Tuesday from the most recent target of 14, as reported by Reuters. A spokesman said it would still deliver over 20 A380s next year. http://www.usatoday.com/travel/flights/2009-09-29-airbus-pushes-delivery-a380_N.htm?csp=34
posted 7 weeks ago
But I also see where it was 13 in 2008 and soon to be 13 for 2009 bringing the total to 26. So now I'm confused as to where the #18 comes into play. Unless it is 18 as of August 2009 with eight additional planes in final assembly and on schedule for delivery by the end of the year. That's probably it. I'm gonna lose my bets on this Q. Dang it.
posted 7 weeks ago

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