Created Thu 29th Jan 7:04am PST by

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$155,165)

How many Republican Senators will vote to approve the current $800b + stimulus bill?

Settled as 2-3 Republican votes to approve

Background: Despite President Obama's calls for bipartisanship regarding the latest economic stimulus bill, which exceeds $800 billion, no Republican legislators in the House of Representatives voted in support of the bill.

Will the economic stimulus package be brought before the Senate for a vote before February 16, 2009? And if so, how will the voting go among Republicans in the Senate?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Bill brought to a vote. 0 Republican "yes" votes

1 Republican vote to approve

2-3 Republican votes to approve

98%

4-6 Republican votes to approve

7-10 Republican votes to approve

More than 10 Republican votes to approve

Bill not brought to vote before February 16, 2009

Settled as 2-3 Republican votes to approve on Tue 10th Feb 11:41am PST

Activity: H$93,920
Predictions: 369
Comments: 14

Suspend date: Sun 15th Feb 8:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 10th Feb 11:41am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 10th Feb 10am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Bill brought to a vote. 0 Republican "yes" votes : 30%, 1 Republican vote to approve: 20%, 2-3 Republican votes to approve: 22%, 4-6 Republican votes to approve: 14%, 7-10 Republican votes to approve: 3%, More than 10 Republican votes to approve: 1%, Bill not brought to vote before February 16, 2009: 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 29th Jan 7:04am PST by

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$155,165)

Settlement requested Mon 9th Feb 3:12pm PST by

horsefeathers Level 12, Guru (H$34,303)

: the vote was held tonight Feb 9.09

Settlement requested Mon 9th Feb 5:32pm PST by

bout3fitty Level 15, Seer (H$387,499)

: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Business/story?id=6840389&page=1

Settlement requested Mon 9th Feb 5:33pm PST by

bout3fitty Level 15, Seer (H$387,499)

: Never mind. Closing debate. Sorry. Little flag-happy. :)

Settlement requested Tue 10th Feb 9:57am PST by

Erik

: As a result, Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania broke ranks to cast their votes to advance the bill.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090210/ap_on_go_co/congress_stimulus_282

Settlement requested Tue 10th Feb 10:39am PST by

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$155,165)

: Settle as "2-3 Republican votes to approve"

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/11/washington/11web-stim.html?_r=1&hp

Settled as '2-3 Republican votes to approve' Tue 10th Feb 11:41am PST by

destry [Admin]

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Predictions (369)

40 weeks ago

obammer Level 11, Legend (H$22,904)

predicted 7-10 Republican votes to approve (H$20 at 0%)

40 weeks ago

obammer Level 11, Legend (H$22,904)

predicted 4-6 Republican votes to approve (H$20 at 1%)

40 weeks ago

eric_s_stacy Level 11, Legend (H$15,778)

predicted 2-3 Republican votes to approve (H$20 at 98%)

40 weeks ago

pabloc Level 13, Psychic (H$56,957)

predicted 4-6 Republican votes to approve (H$22 at 19%)

40 weeks ago

jjw07652 Level 11, Legend (H$18,735)

predicted 2-3 Republican votes to approve (H$2,000 at 68%)

Comments (14)

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$155,165)

If, for some reason, there are multiple votes on an economic stimulus package before the suspend date, this market will be concerned with the first vote.

posted 42 weeks ago

valornhonor Level 10, Genius (H$11,539)

Thanks carnac, you beat me to this, but I was going to phrase it something like, Will there be a second Elephant Walk? But that would likely have been too obscure for most younger members.

posted 42 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,364)

who cares..I have my printing press all geared up to make my money

posted 42 weeks ago

conspiracy2riot Level 14, Prophet (H$100,047)

good idea, cool. i've been meaning to shop for one myself. what's good for the goose and all.

posted 42 weeks ago

ironman288 Level 12, Guru (H$37,564)

way ahead of you guys... i just bought a few dozen sets of "monopoly".

posted 41 weeks ago

nuaetius Level 12, Guru (H$28,252)

Come on, that's like saying that a if Geese all started laying golden eggs gold prices would go down. Preposterous

posted 41 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,364)

public opinion not too happy with republicans

posted 40 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,364)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/09/poll-obama-stimulus-effor_n_165206.html

maybe some more resmuglicans vote to appease angry voters...

posted 40 weeks ago

destry [Admin]

Remember this market is referring to the vote on the stimulus bill, and the vote the news is currently reporting on was a procedural vote where 60 votes were needed to avoid a filibuster and move the bill to a final vote in the Senate. It should also be noted that this bill will still go through a compromise situation with the House version before it is sent to Obama to sign.

posted 40 weeks ago

stlj9174

no shot the bill gets more than 3 republican votes. but if the dems don't hold up on their end to cut out spending items or keep tax cuts to their liking, the 3 republicans could bail - Snowe alreade came out and said that her vote is not a definite and she could still decide to vote "nay."

posted 40 weeks ago

chloeburns Level 12, Guru (H$34,355)

I have to assume from Carnac's comment above that Tuesday's vote will resolve this market. Because the Senate's version of the bill is different from the House's version, the bill will then go to conference committee to resolve any differences before a final Senate vote and -- if passed -- the bill will be signed into law. However, the first non-cloture vote is the vote that counts. Carnac, is this correct?

posted 40 weeks ago

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$155,165)

@chloeburns: Correct.

posted 40 weeks ago

Erik

somebody ought to suspend this -
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090210/ap_on_go_co/congress_stimulus_282

posted 40 weeks ago

stlj9174

61-37, 3 republicans - should be settled

posted 40 weeks ago

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