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Created Thu 29th Jan 2009 10:47am PST by ronando

When will Ireland's Live Register top 350,000?

Settled as Jan/Feb

Data released on March 4 shows:

February 2009 354,437 total 352,800 seasonally adjusted

Question was flagged at 5:15 AM CST Wednesday so that will be the suspension time

Background:

Background: Total claimants on Ireland's Live Register (a monthly proxy for unemployment) grew by more than 50% over the course of 2008, from 180,000 to 290,000. (You can access the stats here: http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/database/eirestat/Live%20Register/Live%20Register.asp.)

How fast will it increase in 2009?

Settlement details:As reported by the Central Statistics Office, www.cso.ie

 
Forecast history %
Jan/Feb
79%
Mar/Apr
11%
May/Jun
5%
Jul/Aug
3%
Sep/Oct
1%
Nov/Dec
0%
It won't!
1%
Settled as Jan/Feb on Fri 6th Mar 2009 10:43am PST

Suspend date: Sun 24th Jan 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 6th Mar 2009 10:43am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 4th Mar 2009 3:15am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Jan/Feb: 15%, Mar/Apr: 25%, May/Jun: 25%, Jul/Aug: 15%, Sep/Oct: 10%, Nov/Dec: 5%, It won't!: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 29th Jan 2009 10:47am PST by ronando
Settlement requested Wed 4th Mar 2009 3:15am PST by arleyguy: February figures have just been published this morning, showing live register total at 354,000

seasonally adjusted figure is also over this question's 350,000 threshold so the question should settle as 'Jan / Feb 09'

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/lreg.pdf

http://www.cso.ie/newsevents/default.htm
Settlement requested Wed 4th Mar 2009 3:57am PST by ronando: Figures are now out for Feb and it's over 350k:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0304/liveregister.html
Settled as 'Jan/Feb' Fri 6th Mar 2009 10:43am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Data released on March 4 shows:

February 2009 354,437 total 352,800 seasonally adjusted

Question was flagged at 5:15 AM CST Wednesday so that will be the suspension time

Suspend date: Sun 24th Jan 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Fri 6th Mar 2009 10:43am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 4th Mar 2009 3:15am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (50)

48 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted Jan/Feb (H$500 at 80%)
49 weeks ago
arleyguy predicted Jan/Feb (H$1,000 at 74%)
49 weeks ago
korbenvb predicted Mar/Apr (H$200 at 14%)
49 weeks ago
korbenvb predicted Mar/Apr (H$100 at 11%)
49 weeks ago
arleyguy predicted Jan/Feb (H$1,000 at 73%)

Comments (9)

  1 ryanj
Hi,

My names Ryan and I'm an administrator at Hubdub. I've sent out a challenge to my friends on Hubdub, so hopefully they'll come about and add some more forecasts to your market. My prediction is May/June but that should be taken with a heavy grain of salt...

See you on Hubdub soon,
Ryan
posted 1 year ago
  2 kruijs[Power User]
So, where are you from, Ryan, administrator at Hubdub? And could you please tell us why you did predict "May/June"?
posted 1 year ago
  3 ryanj
Heh.... well apparently I sometimes settle markets and create new markets and stuff like that, not a big deal though. As to why I forecast May/June? I have a hunch
posted 1 year ago
  4 meanderingsearcher
and has been known to google with safe search off
posted 1 year ago
  5 jenniandboys[Admin]
Does anyone else think that reads like an intro at an AA meeting? I didn't know being a Hubdub administrator required rehabilitation... Well, anyway.

Hi, Ryan. Welcome and thanks for sharing.
posted 1 year ago
  6 meanderingsearcher
this one was too funny
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/hubdub_addiction
posted 1 year ago
  7 ronando
This may be of interest to future punters - things not looking so well in January:
http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0202/jobless.html
posted 1 year ago
  8 ronando
As may this - January hits 325k+!
http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0204/employment.html
posted 1 year ago
  9 tuff_sledding[Power User]
Jenni, how come you know so much about AA meetings?
posted 48 weeks ago

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