Will Mount Redoubt erupt before Feb. 15/09?

What exactly constitutes an eruption (for settlement purposes)? These things can puff out steam for a while, maybe send a small amount of ash skyward, without really blowing out the way St. Helens did. What level and type of activity crosses the 'eruption' line?

Alaska Volcano Observatory Updates on Twitter: http://twitter.com/alaska_avo

Alaska Volcano Observatory with live updates:
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Redoubt.php

I obviously don't know the technical term, but any type of significant amounts of steam or ash coming out from the volcano should constitute an eruption. Alternatively, when the mainstream media announces the volcano as having 'erupted' will be indicative for settlement.

Thanks Tisha

WHY has this been altered from the original question when i made my prediction?

Someone is tricking me into losing all my HUB$!!!

No trickery; I'm just going almost all-in on this one and keeping my fingers (and toes, and legs, and arms) severely crossed. :)

This has been a fun one to watch. Two days ago, stories suggested that it was "settling down." Then, there was increased activity yesterday. They still say "it can be any day...or weeks."

sqlman is going to either make a lot of H$ or end up looking forward to his H$20 daily bonus. :)

Yep...it'll be either caviar or bologna sandwiches...

why are you doing this to me!!!!

@sglman>you can uncross all . you can always cash in even if it means taken a small lose

@sqlman - Look at those odds! More H$!!!

Price volatility in this market is as unstable as the ground under Mount Redoubt making the forecast history graph look more and more like a seismograph. :-)

I'll say; as folks have jumped in an out of this market, my net worth has bounced up and down from H$72K to H$172K. If the darn thing will blow in the next week, I'll be breathing penthouse air; if not, I'll be back to toiling in the salt mines. But as they say: it's all pretend money, right? :)

Sqlman - I am glad to find common ground between us & I agree that this has been an incredibly volatile market.
You are brave to wager so much on this event and I hope for the best possible outcome.

I wanted to share that my worst bet ever, lost 41K on whether Michel Fournier would complete a world-record skydive attempt, last year.
http://www.hubdub.com/m6940/Will_Michel_Fournier_make_successful_attempt_to_jump_from_40000_m_130000_feet

$41K? Ouch! The most I've lost to date was about $30K (on a stock market question). Yeah, I stand to lose many tens of thousands here...but I've had a good week, so confidence is high. Even then, though, I look at it this way: I started 2009 as an 'Expert'. If Redoubt doesn't pop its top in time, I'll be back to being a 'Psychic'; if, on the other hand, it does, I'll be a 'Seer'. (And I kept a few bucks liquid so I'll have enough to rebuild if need be.) So, you know, it's all good. ;)

Thanks for the well wishes...

Everytime I sign on my Net worth too fluctuates.....it is a bit nerve racking to say the least. It apears as if the Yes wagers are ceasing. This is a great question and I hope there is another one right behind it if this one doe snot blow by the 15th. I have lost and won a ton of H4 in the oil market. (My greatest win was over $100k....I will not say how I am doing in oil currently as it is not pretty)
Best of luck to all....hoping the mountain remains status quo

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,489724,00.html

latest

Live webcam shot of Mount Redoubt from 7.5 miles away:
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webcam/Redoubt_-_Hut.php

Thanks lola!
I think we need that embedded in the background of the question so this can be an in-play! :)

Here's another camera (which is further away):
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/webcam/webcam.php?cam=Redoubt+-+CI

@sqlman - I'm in this with you (probably not for quite as much as you) but think we need some action. Did I just see something from that webcam!?

Yeah, the mountain's been putting out a lot of steam all day, meaning, of course, that the magma's getting higher and, thus, things are getting hotter. As vulcanologists like to say, Redoubt is just clearing his throat before the real singing starts. The question is, when does the music start? :)

The latest: "Unrest at Redoubt Volcano continues...Volcanic tremor is ongoing with variable amplitudes, and small discrete earthquakes are occurring at a rate of one to several events per hour. Clear webcam images today show a steam plume rising up to several hundred feet above the crater."

The link on this page has pretty cool video of a fly over and close up look at redoubt a few days ago:

http://www.avo.alaska.edu/news.php?item=70

Great visualization of the H$ 10,000 it looks like I'm about to lose. :(

@sqlman - do we need to put on our rally caps? do a rain dance? something, quick!

who is we? ......let it simmer down. best of luck

@ mrperfkt: Thanks for posting the video link. Good stuff. I love volcanoes. I've taken several trips up to Mt. St. Helen's and hiked around the area. Very cool stuff.

That's nothing guys. I saw the original Journey to the Center of the Earth.. It seemed pretty real back then.

I am guessing that the volcano blew, destroyed the monitoring station, and most of us lost our bets.
No word yet from the Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations for 2-15-09.
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Redoubt.php

Or, I might just be a little anxious for this one to be settled.

i ask again why was this altered since a lot of members had made there prediction, it did read any type of emissions would settle this?

Done deal.....did not blow.

I think your announcement's a bit premature there, pm2668k; the volcano is in Alaska time (GMT-9), and the question asks whether it will blow by 2/15, which should be interpreted inclusively*, meaning that it has until the end of February 15th Alaska time, or roughly 18.5 hours from now (though you're right; it doesn't look too likely; the AVO stated on Friday "Based on observations of past eruptions of Redoubt, ongoing analysis of the current activity, and studies of similar volcanoes worldwide, the current period of elevated [but non-eruptive] unrest could persist for some time, possibly many months.")

* - You know, like when you're told "Tax returns must be postmarked by April 15th")

...(Of course, the AVO also said this in that same Friday report: "...as long as substantial volcanic-gas emission, prolonged periods of tremor, and intermittent discrete, shallow earthquakes occur, notable escalation of activity immediately prior to an eruption might only be on the order of hours or less.")

IOW: I still have my fingers firmly crossed... :)

why has this not settled?

sqlman...the question states before the 15th not including the 15th. I am glad it worked out. Once again, I had far too much wagered on a question!!! I am thankful it worked out.

Mea culpa. Ah, well; next time my prayers to The One True And Mighty God Vulcan won't go unanswered, as I intend to sacrifice more than just my one of my neigbbor's goats. :)

still no answer to
#28 mine and several others would have wagered on that

I *did* wager on that. :(

Re #28 - I did briefly put up a clarification saying that the emission of any type would count for settlement. I read up a bit more about 1 minute later and found out that a small amount of ash was already coming out of the volcano at the time we clarified. curios - If you thought that any kind of emission would count for settlement then this question should have been voided from the start as the event would have already occurred at the time of creation of the question.