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How many US soldiers will kill themselves in 2009?

Background: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090129/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/army_suicides

At least 128 committed suicide in 2008.
115 committed suicide in 2007.
102 committed suicide in 2006.

How many will kill themselves this year?
102

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
100 or less
11%
between 101 and 200
71%
between 201 and 300
12%
more than 300
6%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 100 or less: 35%, between 101 and 200: 40%, between 201 and 300: 15%, more than 300: 10%

Action history:

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (32)

4 days ago
frogchop predicted between 101 and 200 (H$3,000 at 74%)
4 weeks ago
ozarkguy predicted between 101 and 200 (H$609 at 63%)
9 weeks ago
syzslack predicted between 101 and 200 (H$1,000 at 56%)
9 weeks ago
frogchop predicted between 101 and 200 (H$800 at 62%)
9 weeks ago
frogchop predicted between 101 and 200 (H$1,500 at 52%)

Comments (5)

You'd think the number would decrease significantly now that O is in office and there is to be withdrawal over 16 months. But I say nothing doing.

Can't scrub dub the memories of those who witnessed and/or partook in such horrors, suffer PSTD or worse. Especially since we will see more in the future about how it was nothing but a war based on lies.
posted 42 weeks ago
Are you kidding? My money is on 300. Maybe more.
posted 42 weeks ago
  3 frank2877
Isn't this a banned bet as mentioned in this question: "Will overly sensitive hubdub gendarmes repeal their ban on bets based on death?" I'm confused :-)
posted 39 weeks ago
  4 frank2877
All these suicides in the military. Something is wrong. In Vietnam we didn't kill ourselves, we fragged officers. I guess it's "Oh s**t I signed up for this!" as opposed to "They drafted my sorry a** and now they're gonna pay!" :-0
posted 39 weeks ago
  5 ryanj
The new ruling regarding death markets is only retroactive, therefore a market such as this could not be created again. But the market since it was created before the implementation of the new rule will be allowed to stay on.

Regards,
Ryan
posted 39 weeks ago

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