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Fiji - will there be a coup before the next general elections are held?

Background: Since gaining independance in 1970, Fiji has had (in no particular order) 9 general elections, 3 constitutions and 4 coups. The current Prime Minister Josaia Voreqe Bainimarama (commonly known as Frank in the press) has held the office of Prime Minister twice in Fiji's recent history and both times he ended up in the top job after a coup.
The first time he handed over power to a civilian in July of 2000 after only 3 months. This time around he seems reluctant to hold elections previously promised to be held later this year.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. A failed coup will also be enough to settle as yes. Suspend date can be extended until either an election is held or a coup occurs.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
26%
No
74%
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Wed 29th Feb 2012 11:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Sun 1st Feb 5:07am PST by oppugner

Suspend date: Wed 29th Feb 2012 11:59pm PST (2 years to go) details

 

Predictions (9)

19 weeks ago
frogchop predicted Yes (H$100 at 26%)
25 weeks ago
jamest predicted Yes (H$200 at 26%)
31 weeks ago
jank predicted No (H$100 at 75%)
32 weeks ago
hedders predicted Yes (H$100 at 25%)
32 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted Yes (H$20 at 26%)

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