Net worth: H$1,000
Guest:Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's virtual currency, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
Forums
PoliticsSportEntertainmentWorldBusinessTechnologyScienceGeneral

2nd Anniv of HD... Will any first page leaderboarders meet *these* criteria?

Settled as Yes

http://www.hubdub.com/users/hfl13

Well done hfl13

Background:

Background: My hope here is to spur some creativity with the following challenge...

Checking the Leaderboard just now I cannot find a single Hubdub member that meets ALL of the following metrics. Will any meet all of these on 1/28/10 noon PST?

1.) Minimum $1,000,000 in Hubdub account. (Currently 10/20).
2.) Minimum of 10% Open Predictions are public (Currently 10/20).
3.) Minimum 40 created questions (Currently only 3!)
4.) Minimum 1,000 comments (Currently 6/20).
5.) Minimum 100 friends (Currently 4/20).

Also, to avoid the appearance of gaming any member with an A or S adjacent to their name; A member of Admin or a Superuser will be excluded from consideration, currently 6 of the 20 names on the first page of the leaderboard are A's or S's.

Suspension is 24 hrs in advance of settlement date/time.

Good Luck!

Editor's clarification: At least one of the top 20 users on the leaderboard on the 2nd anniversary (1/28/10) has to meet all 5 criteria for this question be settled as Yes. It has been notified that it is possible to game this question but while possible it would be hard to do. I'll review if that is the case on settlement.

Settlement details:As reported by HD Leaderboard at noon PST on 1/28/10.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
72%
No
28%
Settled as Yes on Tue 19th Jan 8:52am PST

Suspend date: Wed 27th Jan 12pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 19th Jan 8:52am PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Wed 4th Feb 2009 5:40am PST by valornhonor
Clarified Wed 4th Feb 2009 11:46am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: I think that would be a lot of work. However if we find gaming relating to this question then it will be voided. I'll keep it open for now.
Suspended Tue 19th Jan 4:12am PST by kruijs[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Tue 19th Jan 4:12am PST by kruijs[Power User]: see:

http://www.hubdub.com/users/hfl13 (market suspended)
Settled as 'Yes' Tue 19th Jan 8:52am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: http://www.hubdub.com/users/hfl13

Well done hfl13

Suspend date: Wed 27th Jan 12pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 19th Jan 8:52am PST details

 

Predictions (58)

3 weeks ago
dong6241 predicted Yes (H$270 at 83%)
4 weeks ago
astogie predicted No (H$20 at 17%)
5 weeks ago
ghostbuster predicted No (H$100 at 17%)
6 weeks ago
siquandai predicted No (H$50 at 16%)
8 weeks ago
frogchop predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 83%)

Comments (22)

  1 randburg
Kruijs has the right idea.

Does anyone really think we got on the Leaderboard spending 40 days and 40 nights in torture in THE GARDEN OF HUBDUB, writing 40 questions that weren't voided, suspended, dangled or mangled, or negotiating the re-edit of the re-edit? I found out quickly that I didn't qualify...Thank Goodness some people have the knack for this: the rest of us are spending our time predicting, which is a possible entry onto the Leaderboard...
posted 1 year ago
@ Randburg,

You're exactly right, no one yet is this well rounded that I could find, but it would be a substantial thing to qualify on five of these metrics, I think a couple of Hubdubbers could attain it, if they're interested.
posted 1 year ago
So, Destry, who do you like to achieve this otherwise non-awarded distinction?
posted 1 year ago
  4 destry[Admin]
I think that with the growth of our site, there will be a significant amount of hubdub millionaires at the end of the year, then making predictions public is simple enough, creating 40 questions sounds difficult but a person could create that number just by writing a weeks worth of baseball questions, 1000 comments is something that isn't challenging, just someone determined enough to type one word and hit enter, and finally 100 friends that is just like getting people to follow you on twitter, you send out enough requests and you will get a following of friends. I would be willing to say there will be 10 or more people that meet those guidelines on our second anniversary.
posted 1 year ago
  5 randburg
Thank you Destry for reminding me. One evening recently I did a sample and discovered that 74% of the questions on hubdub are SPORTS QUESTIONS. Eight categories on hubdub and 74% are in ONE category only. I think there might be a loud outcry if 74% of the questions were in the entertainment category, for example.
posted 1 year ago
  6 hfl13
In October I will decide if it is worth gaming this question to concentrate on 2. and 5. 1. & 3 should be done and 4. in reach.
posted 39 weeks ago
  7 dieseldog
hfl13 - i hope your making a joke. if your caught gaming it carries a harsh punishment. anything from a warning to being automatically banned. the middle ground is warned and half your networth taken away.
posted 39 weeks ago
So you're gaming this question if you bet yes and then become the person that does it?
posted 39 weeks ago
Actually, cookietime's comment is quite germane. How do you determine "gaming" this question. These are pretty high bars that are set. Is a person disqualified if they happened to bet yes months earlier and by the deadline they are the one or one of several that met the criteria?? This needs clarification.
@dieseldog: you are kidding, aren't you? I am sure there are lots of folks who try to game a question one way or another. Who is the judge, the jury and the executioner?
posted 36 weeks ago
  10 dieseldog
tuff - no i'm not kidding. when i first joined there was a big rukus going on over a guy/girl called sakati (sumthin close to that) they warned him/her and put a red G on his profile so people would know he/she was caught gaming. they then annouced the 3 things that would happen if your caught gaming/cheating. the judge and the jury would be the admins and superusers. the final decision/the executioner would most likely come from nigel or tisha i'm guessing. if you placed a bet 3 months in advance i doubt they would consider that gaming. i don't wanna go into details (might encourage people to try it) but if you see it you would know its happening. if anybody sees suspicious activity the usually report it.
posted 35 weeks ago
  11 hfl13
First it is not my question.
Second IMHO if by my achievement I earn some additional money on this Q - why not.

Otherwise these kind of Qs that allow gaming should be instantly voided or forbidden. No questions concerning hubdub should be allowed because almost everything else is out of reach for gaming (hacking beside)

This is more flawed question design ( why not ask with 5 and only 500000 (first 100 Leaderboard)) than asking for only one with high conditions.

Hubdubing for me is using superior knowledge (including my own behavior) or better estimates to gain HD$. Naturally I will meet 3 conditions and the open predictions and friends are doable. Can somebody link me the rules concerning "gaming". I betted about 5000 in Feb and 5000 in May on the question. If requested I can cash in. Thought that valorn was promoting question creation, openness and forum activity with this Q.
posted 31 weeks ago
  12 hfl13
The missing conditions "friends" and "open questions" are only my policy decisions on these topics.
Please clarify these kind of questions, S and A were banned but why not bann the whole Top 20.

I am just hubdubbing not gaming/cheating. There wont be any nonsence forum entries for example from me.

I remember another Q (number of HD Qs) were there was heavy gaming (70+ new rubbish Qs) and nothing happened. Most of these Qs were voided later.
posted 31 weeks ago
  13 dieseldog
hfl13/all members - at the bottom of every page is a place to find the rules, question guidelines, FAQ, etc. depending on how "serious" you take the game you might wanna read the info. the SU's and admins are also helpful if you don't wanna take the time to read the info. the confusion on my part was when hfl13 said "In October I will decide if it is worth gaming this question." i'm guessing now after reading his comments, he has a differnt meaning of gaming than the "HD meaning." on his profile it says he's from germany. maybe gaming means playing/HDing the normal way. i ment no offense, nor was i accusing anybody of gaming. just struck me as kinda strange that a member would come right out and say he might "game" the question. hence the reason for my comment 7. sorry for any confusion i caused.

2.2.11 Gaming
Gaming of the system is explicitly not allowed. Gaming includes:
• Creation of multiple accounts
• Creation of questions with deliberately inaccurate price estimates
• Use of multiple accounts to transfer Hubdub dollars from one to the other
However we cannot provide an exhaustive list of what is considered gaming. As a guide, if you believe the wider Hubdub community would consider an activity as gaming then it probably is.
In the event that user is considered to be gaming he/she then the procedure is as follows:
• 1st offence: Email warning
• 2nd offence: Fined 50% of net worth and publicly named for 2 weeks
• 3rd offence: Account deactivated
If the first offence is considered particularly blatant then we may move to the fine or deactivation.
We reserve the right to suspend or deactivate accounts at any time without prior notification.
posted 31 weeks ago
  14 hfl13
Hi dd - thanks for the rules = official definition. My "gaming" definition is a lot of more positive meaning what can I do to decide the question in my best interest. Gaming versus playing/Hubdubbing includes the intend to influence the outcome.

With the three mentioned examples I have no problem and never tried anything like that.

My gaming definition is based on my behaviour (mostly hubdub Qs). I use the system and the rules to get ahead. If I am around 500K in the leaderboard and there is a Q asking for the number of Orcales at a certain date and I am somewhat invested in that Q why shouldn´t I influence the outcome.
If I could influence stocks in the markets I would do it = Capitalism !

I always controll my Net Worth and the questions I am heavyly invested in - at the moment I have 440K free cash.

There was a question were I bet 130K that I would have loved to "game" but I failed the effort neccessary to be in reach.

As you read above I am open and fair about my plan - I announce my intentions. And if I am not invested so much or otherwise in need of time there is a 10-15% chance that I won´t do it. There even is a possibility that I won´t cash in my bets & look for others in the Top 20 to meet the criteria and loose my predictions. 10K at the moment is not so important any more. With 543 open predictions for me only Qs > 30K invested or high possible gains are interesting.
posted 31 weeks ago
  15 hfl13
Just found this at reading the rules for the first time:
2.2.5 Types of question
....
* Individuals are not permitted to predict on markets over which they have direct control or excessive influence eg 'When will X have a net worth of $6 million Hubdollars' and 'When will Nicole Kidman announce her second pregnancy', where X and Nicole Kidman are known users on Hubdub.

Betting this Q and doing the requirements seems to be "direct control" - therefore I flag this Q to know if I better cash in my bets.
posted 29 weeks ago
  16 hfl13
... or I won´t get to 100 friends and won´t start being open on my predictions.

= I won´t meet the criteria.
posted 29 weeks ago
  17 hfl13
Easy money I made all criteria. Who takes the 72% to 99%
posted 3 weeks ago
  18 hfl13
In theory there could be changes till 1/28/10 noon PST?

Someone didn´t like me offering a gift and suspended ;-)
posted 3 weeks ago
  19 kruijs[Power User]
1.) Minimum $1,000,000 in Hubdub account.
2.) Minimum of 10% Open Predictions are public

the only point which could change is 1. or 2.
still, you could manage to miss 2, but I doubt you'd manage to miss 1 ...
posted 3 weeks ago
  20 kruijs[Power User]
(it was me, btw :-))
posted 3 weeks ago
  21 hfl13
I had seen it before. You cut short my rare generosity because I couldn´t bet myself since December.

I planned to block 50 friends ... just kidding.

Thanks to valorn I now have open questions again and I will cotinue to keep all my noon esential bets open.
posted 3 weeks ago
  22 frogchop
Hey, I represent that, too. ;-)
posted 2 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

Stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real news stories! Win more if you're right and climb the leaderboards Learn more...

Name
Email
New password
By joining you are agreeing to our terms of service

Related Tags