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Will a prime number with at least 100,000,000 decimal digits be discovered in 2009?

Background: The Electronic Frontier Foundation offers a standing prize of US$150,000 to the first person or group to discover a prime number with at least 100,000,000 decimal digits. Will 2009 be the year they have to pay up?

Official contest rules at http://w2.eff.org/awards/coop-prime-rules.php

Settlement details:Settled when award is announced, even if it is actually paid later. As reported by a major mainstream news source or on the EFF website.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
11%
No
89%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 5th Feb 6:38pm PST by loren
Changed Question text Thu 5th Feb 7:08pm PST by tisha[Admin]: ... decimal digits be discovered in 20082009?

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (52)

2 days ago
bipedprimate predicted No (H$250 at 89%)
4 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted No (H$500 at 89%)
4 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted No (H$100 at 91%)
4 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted No (H$3,000 at 91%)
4 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted No (H$3,000 at 90%)

Comments (1)

GIMPS just found one with 12,978,189 digits: http://www.mersenne.org/
posted 5 weeks ago

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