Created Fri 6th Feb 7:22am PST by

brian72975 Level 15, Seer (H$424,167)

What will the US unemployment rate be for February 2009?

Settled as 8.1 or 8.2 percent

Tolling grimly higher, the recession snatched more than 650,000 Americans' jobs for a record third straight month in February as unemployment climbed to a quarter-century peak of 8.1 percent and surged toward even more wrenching double digits.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090306/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

Background:

Background: The Labor Department reported a drop in non-farm payroll of 598,000 for January 2009, raising the unemployment rate from 7.2 to 7.6 percent. Where will it land for February 2009?

"January U.S. job losses were widespread across almost all major industries and made for the worst totals since 1974.

The rate is expected to go higher -- up to 9 percent over the next six months, where it is likely to hover through 2010, analysts predict."
http://www.suntimes.com/business/1418315,CST-FIN-jobs07.article

What will the unemployment rate be for the month of February, 2009?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Below 7.3 percent

7.3 or 7.4 percent

7.5 percent

7.6 percent

7.7 percent

7.8 percent

7.9 percent

12%

8 percent

16%

8.1 or 8.2 percent

35%

Above 8.2 percent

22%

Settled as 8.1 or 8.2 percent on Sun 8th Mar 5:29am PST

Activity: H$14,033
Predictions: 123
Comments: 6

Suspend date: Mon 2nd Mar 11pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 8th Mar 5:29am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 2nd Mar 11pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Below 7.3 percent: 2%, 7.3 or 7.4 percent: 5%, 7.5 percent: 8%, 7.6 percent: 15%, 7.7 percent: 20%, 7.8 percent: 20%, 7.9 percent: 15%, 8 percent: 8%, 8.1 or 8.2 percent: 5%, Above 8.2 percent: 2%

Action history:

Created Fri 6th Feb 7:22am PST by

brian72975 Level 15, Seer (H$424,167)

Suspended Fri 6th Feb 8:58am PST by

keyeshoveden [Power User]

: Suspended pending settlement

Settlement requested Fri 6th Feb 8:58am PST by

keyeshoveden [Power User]

: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4539113/US-economy-suffers-biggest-job-losses-since-1974.html

Apparenlty 7.6% (market suspended)

Unsuspended Fri 6th Feb 9:04am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Question is for the February unemployment rate, which should be released in early March. Suspension was based on the January report which came out today.

Changed Suspend date Fri 6th Feb 9:05am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: was: "2009-03-06 03:00:00"

Changed Description Sun 8th Feb 2:21am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: show details

... it land for February 2009?? "January U.S. job losses were widespread across almost all major industries and made for the worst totals since 1974. The rate is expected to go higher -- up to 9 percent over the next six months, where it is likely to hover through 2010, analysts predict." http://www.suntimes.com/business/1418315,CST-FIN-jobs07.article What will the unemployment rate be for the month of February, 2009?

Suspended Mon 2nd Mar 11pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Fri 6th Mar 6:30am PST by

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,008)

: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090306/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

8.1%

Settlement requested Fri 6th Mar 6:32am PST by

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,008)

: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090306/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

8.1%

Settlement requested Fri 6th Mar 6:42am PST by

tuff_sledding [Power User]

: The answer is 8.1!
http://finance.yahoo.com/

Settlement requested Fri 6th Mar 5:34pm PST by

brian72975 Level 15, Seer (H$424,167)

: Do we need some help?

Settled as '8.1 or 8.2 percent' Sun 8th Mar 5:29am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Tolling grimly higher, the recession snatched more than 650,000 Americans' jobs for a record third straight month in February as unemployment climbed to a quarter-century peak of 8.1 percent and surged toward even more wrenching double digits.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090306/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

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Predictions (123)

37 weeks ago

lardog Level 11, Legend (H$21,651)

predicted Above 8.2 percent (H$300 at 20%)

37 weeks ago

cptnkaos Level 7, Pro (H$4,312)

predicted Above 8.2 percent (H$20 at 17%)

37 weeks ago

quietcool Level 9, Expert (H$7,610)

predicted 7.9 percent (H$100 at 12%)

37 weeks ago

quietcool Level 9, Expert (H$7,610)

predicted 7.8 percent (H$100 at 7%)

37 weeks ago

keynes Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,310)

predicted 8.1 or 8.2 percent (H$20 at 39%)

Comments (6)

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,695,923)

Why is this suspended for settlement?

posted 41 weeks ago

brian72975 Level 15, Seer (H$424,167)

Just for clarity (not sure why it needs more clarity, but) this question is asking the FEBRUARY unemployment rate, to be released March 6 at 8:30 EST.

posted 41 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,008)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090304/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_employment_adp_3

posted 37 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,008)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090306/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

posted 37 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,008)

8.1% for February

posted 37 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,008)

settlement?

posted 37 weeks ago

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