Created Fri 6th Feb 10:53pm PST by

adammccormicks Level 11, Legend (H$22,057)

When will the average price for unleaded gas reach $2.50 a gallon?

Settled as May

On May 31 the average price for unleaded gas was $2.502.
www.fuelgaugereport.com

Background:

Background: Many experts and pundits are talking about gas prices reaching $2 or $3 dollars a gallon this summer and many are predicting the average to be $2.50 for the year.

Bob van der Valk, a petroleum industry and fuel-pricing analyst based in Issaquah, Wash., thinks a $3 a gallon national average isn't out of the question this summer, and predicts the year's average will ring up to $2.50.

"The only hedge against all of that is the fact the consumer has done an excellent job of controlling their demand" by driving dramatically fewer miles, Smith said.

Van der Valk agrees. "This year, gasoline will drive crude oil," van der Valk said, noting that even after gas prices started falling, "a Gallup poll found people have changed their driving habits permanently."

So when do you think $2.50 a gallon will first appear this year?

Settlement details:As reported by www.fuelgaugereport.com as regular unleaded average price.

Forecast history %

March

April

May

99%

June

July

August

September

October

November or December

Not by the end of 2009

Settled as May on Fri 5th Jun 1:32pm PST

Activity: H$239,163
Predictions: 491
Comments: 24

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 8:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)
Settlement date: Fri 5th Jun 1:32pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st May 8:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: March: 5%, April: 10%, May: 20%, June: 25%, July: 20%, August: 10%, September: 3%, October: 3%, November or December: 2%, Not by the end of 2009: 2%

Action history:

Created Fri 6th Feb 10:53pm PST by

adammccormicks Level 11, Legend (H$22,057)

Settlement requested Sun 31st May 7:42am PST by

mickeydaniel Level 16, Oracle (H$903,612)

: Please settle as May. May 31 the average price for unleaded gas is $2.502. www.fuelgaugereport.com

Settlement requested Sun 31st May 11:21am PST by

kennyk Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,016,793)

: Price is at 2.502 - http://www.fuelgaugereport.com/

Settlement requested Tue 2nd Jun 12:58pm PST by

mickeydaniel Level 16, Oracle (H$903,612)

: This question should have settled as May when the price exceeded $2.50 on May 31.

Settlement requested Wed 3rd Jun 5:13pm PST by

brian72975 Level 15, Seer (H$424,167)

: as above

Suspended Fri 5th Jun 1:31pm PST by

tisha

Settled as 'May' Fri 5th Jun 1:32pm PST by

tisha

: On May 31 the average price for unleaded gas was $2.502.
www.fuelgaugereport.com

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Predictions (491)

24 weeks ago

valornhonor Level 10, Genius (H$11,540)

predicted June (H$10 at 1%)

24 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,702,928)

predicted May (H$3,000 at 58%)

24 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,702,928)

predicted May (H$1,000 at 40%)

24 weeks ago

bruns_david Level 14, Prophet (H$100,284)

predicted June (H$1,000 at 60%)

24 weeks ago

bruns_david Level 14, Prophet (H$100,284)

predicted Not by the end of 2009 (H$50 at 0%)

Comments (24)

tuff_sledding [Power User]

And if it does not reach that level by Dec?

posted 41 weeks ago

sharon91977 Level 16, Oracle (H$802,895)

where is the "does not reach 2.50" option?

posted 41 weeks ago

buckeyetom Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,701,428)

Right now the market is down. Oil prices are receding. The top oil consuming nations are in a long term recession. There should have been a "Does not reach $2.50 in 2009" option embedded into this question. Considering that the suspend date is 46 weeks away and a lot of money will eventually be wagered on this question it should be voided now to prevent a major refund later. Adam Mc should re-post the question with the "Does not reach $2.50" option available. I am flagging it. Nothing personal Adam.

posted 41 weeks ago

adammccormicks Level 11, Legend (H$22,057)

Oh yea! I forgot about that, I'll see if bayoubear can add that option for me, sorry guys.

posted 41 weeks ago

adammccormicks Level 11, Legend (H$22,057)

Ok, I asked him to add the "does not happen in 2009" option, hopefully he can do that. The thought of it not happening didn't even cross my mind. The price is already nearing $2 a gallon, but your right, anything can happen. Thank you for bringing that to my attention.

posted 41 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,464)

It is $2.10 in SW Florida as of today....

posted 41 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,464)

what if it reaches it earlier...do you get paid then?

posted 41 weeks ago

adammccormicks Level 11, Legend (H$22,057)

If and when it reaches $2.50 anyone can request settlement. I check it daily so if it reaches $2.50 at anytime, I will request settlement if no one else beats me to it. It could take a day or two for the admin to check and confirm it, but it shouldn't take much longer. So you should get your money within days of when it does reach $2.50.

posted 41 weeks ago

bayoubear [Admin]

Made the adjustment to combine Nov and Dec, then make the last option for not by the end of 2009, with the creator's approval...so take a look at it again...the last option might be a value choice now!

posted 41 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,464)

gas has gone up 17 cents a gallon here in SW FL in the past few weeks

posted 40 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,464)

$2.34 per gallon today in Naples, FL

posted 40 weeks ago

adammccormicks Level 11, Legend (H$22,057)

It doesn't get any better than the top headline on this page, and I quote "Bet on gas prices soaring by summer" :D

posted 39 weeks ago

adammccormicks Level 11, Legend (H$22,057)

Is there anyone left who thinks it won't reach $2.50 a gallon by the end of the year? ;)

posted 27 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,464)

2.39 Naples FL

posted 27 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Amazingly, 10% still do. Snowball's chance in hell, I say!

posted 26 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

Looks like the Memorial day gas hikes are upon us. Wonder if we make it to $2.50 by Memorial day. I think it will be close!

posted 26 weeks ago

coolkraft Level 14, Prophet (H$129,464)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/22/gas-prices-climb-before-m_n_206805.html

posted 26 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,702,928)

2.467 on May 29th, up from 2.449 yesterday. It could be very close. Let\'s see what happens tomorrow May 30th.

posted 25 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,702,928)

2.488. It is going to be close. Now is confirmed.

posted 25 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,702,928)

2.502 It was close and on the right side. 45k gain for 15k investment (30k profit). This should be my second most profitable market.

posted 24 weeks ago

chatarra Level 16, Oracle (H$638,322)

Congrats on your good fortune. As for me, well, I almost won this market - he he.

"It could be very close. Let\'s see what happens tomorrow May 30th."
Why can I never create these drama filled - high tension questions?

My typical question:
Will the Democratic congress still be in power in August of 09?
percentages:
Yes 99.00004%
No .00006%

posted 24 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,702,928)

Here is an example of drama filled politics
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90777/90853/6667374.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moldovan_parliamentary_election,_2009
Following the parliamentary elections of April 5th in Republic of Moldova, Communists gained a majority of votes 60 (of 101) but still they are 1 vote short of the parliamentary majority needed to elect the next President of Moldova.
The result of the April 5th was contested for fraud by the 3 opposition parties as drastically as with mass street demonstrations. A recount followed, not recognised by opposition, that confirmed the results of the April 5th elections.
In the new Parliament, Mr. Voronin, the current President of Moldova was elected in the important function of President of Parliament for which a simple majority of votes was needed. But if the Parliament fails to elect a new President of Moldova until June 4th, the Parliament will be dissolved and new elections will be held. The first attempt to elect the President of Moldova on May 20th was boycotted by the opposition (current Prime Minister Zinaida Greceanii received 60 votes, while her opponent, also from the Communists receieved 0 votes). A second attempt scheduled for May 29th was defered for June 3rd, which should be also the last attempt to elect a President under the current Parliament before it should be dissolved.
So only 1 vote is needed by the Communists to solve the situation.
Could you predict what will happen on June 3rd? Or after if a President will fail to be elected.

posted 24 weeks ago

triciebird Level 12, Guru (H$36,510)

I love I got in on May at 11%!! I do love these questions!!!

posted 24 weeks ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,702,928)

Is there a reason why this question is not at least suspended if not settled?

posted 24 weeks ago

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