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Who will adopt the Rohingya?

Background: The Rohingya are a minority Muslim people who live in the Bangladesh/Burma border region. In 1982, Burma passed a citizenship law that officially recognized 135 ethnic groups. However, this law omitted the Rohingya.

The Burmese Rohingya are treated poorly. They are forced into labor and have had arable land taken away from them. Also, they must receive official permission to get married. At least one Rohingya was jailed for seven years for violating the marriage law.

Since 2006, many Rohingya have fled Burma by boat. Their preferred destination appears to be Malaysia. An estimated 20,000 Rohingya are in Malaysia where they are protected by the UN. However, many end up in Thailand. The Thai government considers them economic migrants and has deserted more than 1,000 Rohingya men in the Andaman Sea.

At market creation time, Indonesia had rescued about 400 refugees during 2009. Originally, Indonesia planned to deport the refugees. However, Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda said that he may grant them refugee status.

Settlement will be based on an official announcement that asylum or refugee status has been granted.

Additional information:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7872635.stm
http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-02-07-voa11.cfm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rohingya_people

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. Suspend date may be changed if the Rohingya have not been adopted.

 
Forecast history %
Bangladesh
3%
Burma
3%
Indonesia
61%
Malaysia
12%
Thailand
3%
Other
17%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Bangladesh: 4%, Burma: 4%, Indonesia: 74%, Malaysia: 4%, Thailand: 4%, Other: 10%

Action history:

Created Sat 7th Feb 8:37pm PST by onedave[Power User]
Changed Suspend date Thu 26th Mar 6:02pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-04-08 23:59:00"
Suspended Mon 13th Apr 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Thu 16th Apr 6:36pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-04-13 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Thu 16th Apr 6:36pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: Per the creator's request, we're re-opening this until more news becomes available.
Suspended Fri 15th May 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Sat 20th Jun 9:33am PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-05-15 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Sat 20th Jun 9:33am PST by sqlman[Admin]: No country has yet stepped forward, so we'll re-open for another six weeks.
Suspended Fri 31st Jul 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Aug 4:07am PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-07-31 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Mon 3rd Aug 4:07am PST by sqlman[Admin]: No country has adopted them yet, so we'll re-open for another month.
Suspended Mon 31st Aug 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Fri 6th Nov 3:25am PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-08-31 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Fri 6th Nov 3:25am PST by sqlman[Admin]

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (24)

16 weeks ago
zeebac predicted Indonesia (H$50 at 61%)
20 weeks ago
aland predicted Indonesia (H$20 at 61%)
27 weeks ago
zeebac predicted Indonesia (H$20 at 61%)
27 weeks ago
rdeggau predicted Other (H$50 at 17%)
27 weeks ago
donnamil predicted Indonesia (H$100 at 61%)

Comments (5)

  1 bgrigore
From what I read there are an estimate 3 millions Rohingya mainly in Burma and Bangladesh (plus in some Muslim countries and Thailand). Seems that Thailand no longer wants to accept them and it is not only destination country but its waters are transited by Rohingyans refugees. Is this question only about the 1000 recently left adrift in the ocean by the Thai navy? Another 580 had the same fate in late December. More could come since they head towards Indonesia and Malaysia by boats. Also to Thailand and India. In Malaysia there are some refugee camps under UN. Indonesia might give Rohingyans refugee status too. Thailand repels them. I don't understand what is the policy of India with their regard. But Jolie is in the rescue which is good.
posted 41 weeks ago
  2 onedave[Power User]
I think that this market can settle when any group of Rohingya refugees is "adopted."
posted 40 weeks ago
  3 onedave[Power User]
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations said that it will send hundreds of the boat people back to Burma. However, Burma has not guaranteed any protection.

It sounds like ASEAN is saying that the Rohingya are not its problem.

http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-38251320090227
posted 38 weeks ago
  4 onedave[Power User]
ASEAN will use something known as the "Bali process" to try to solve the Rohingya problem. The problem will be discussed at a meeting in Bali on April 14-15. Myanmar has confirmed that it will attend the meeting.
http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=83232
posted 32 weeks ago
  5 onedave[Power User]
It looks like the ASEAN meeting failed.

The UN has begun the process of "status determination" for 391 refugees in Indonesia. This process will determine if they should stay in Indonesia or return to Myanmar. However, the article says nothing about citizenship, asylum, etc.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/17/world/asia/17indo.html?ref=asia
posted 31 weeks ago

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