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Will there be another winter as bad as 2008/9 in the UK in the next 5 years.

Background: The winter of 2008/9 is said to have been the worst in the UK for 19 years. Will there be another winter as bad in the next 5 years?

Settlement details:The UK Met Office produce statistics for average temperature in the winter (Dec-Feb) as given on: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2008/winter.html. For the winter to be as bad as 2008/9 the temperature to one decimal place must be less than or equal to that for that given by the UK Met Office for the UK for the winter of 2008/9

 
Forecast history %
Yes
31%
No
69%
Question suspends in 4 years

Suspend date: Fri 28th Feb 2014 11:59pm PST (4 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Sun 8th Feb 9:42am PST by littlescotland

Suspend date: Fri 28th Feb 2014 11:59pm PST (4 years to go) details

 

Predictions (21)

1 week ago
rogerkni predicted Yes (H$500 at 30%)
3 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted Yes (H$500 at 29%)
3 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted Yes (H$500 at 27%)
8 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted Yes (H$500 at 25%)
23 weeks ago
grayman predicted Yes (H$50 at 35%)

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