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Say Yes o Say No, Who wins this sunday on the Venezuela referendum ?

Voided

As flagged by a superuser (onedave), this market is a duplicate of the oddly-worded but correct market http://www.hubdub.com/m24040/Will_Hugo_Chavez_stay_in_office_as_long_he_keeps_winning_elections

Both markets ask the question whether the referendum that would end term limits will pass. Chavez's backers say that ending those limits is the only way President Hugo Chavez can complete his socialist revolution.

Background:

Background: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7884481.stm
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/09/world/americas/09venez.html?_r=1



CARACAS, Venezuela —
The campaign on a referendum to allow President Hugo Chávez to run for re-election indefinitely has intensified, with both supporters, pictured, and opponents holding rallies on Saturday.


RULES:
1.- BETTTING STOP'S AT 12:00 est ( GMT - 5 )
2.- THE WINNER IS ANNOUNCE BY THE VEN. ELECTORAL AUTHORITIES, EVEN IF IT'S BY 1 VOTE



This is Mr. Chávez’s second try in less than two years at extending his stay in office, which he says is necessary to continue the socialist-inspired revolution that he began here a decade ago. The narrow rejection of his attempt in late 2007 — part of a broader constitutional overhaul — was an embarrassing blow for a leader used to adulation.

The referendum next Sunday also offers an opening for Venezuela’s fractious opposition to look beyond 2013, when Mr. Chávez’s current six-year term expires. The president’s followers control every political institution of importance at the federal level, including the Supreme Court and National Assembly.

“For the opposition, the referendum is quite important because they continue to lack a leader capable of challenging Chávez for the presidency,” said Gregory Wilpert, a Venezuela specialist who teaches political science at Brooklyn College.

Just two months ago, Mr. Chávez’s allies lost ground in regional elections, with areas like Maracaibo, the second-largest city, and impoverished districts of Caracas going to the opposition.
But the momentum from those victories has given way to a tight race over the 54-year-old president’s bid to stay in office for years longer, or even decades, as he has hinted.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.www.cnn.com, www.nytimes.com

 
Forecast history %
Yes, President Chavez wins
50%
No, President Chavez loses
50%
Voided Thu 12th Feb 4:37pm PST

Suspend date: Sun 15th Feb 9am PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes, President Chavez wins: 50%, No, President Chavez loses: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 12th Feb 8:19am PST by balcacer
Suspended Thu 12th Feb 3:02pm PST by onedave[Power User]: Flagged by super user: This market is a duplicate of this one:
http://www.hubdub.com/m24040/Will_Hugo_Chavez_stay_in_office_as_long_he_keeps_winning_elections
Voided Thu 12th Feb 4:37pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: As flagged by a superuser (onedave), this market is a duplicate of the oddly-worded but correct market http://www.hubdub.com/m24040/Will_Hugo_Chavez_stay_in_office_as_long_he_keeps_winning_elections

Both markets ask the question whether the referendum that would end term limits will pass. Chavez's backers say that ending those limits is the only way President Hugo Chavez can complete his socialist revolution.

Suspend date: Sun 15th Feb 9am PST details

 

Predictions (32)

40 weeks ago
zarahminor predicted Yes, President Chavez wins (H$20 at 40%)
40 weeks ago
rangoo predicted No, President Chavez loses (H$50 at 60%)
40 weeks ago
kida predicted No, President Chavez loses (H$100 at 59%)
40 weeks ago
bout3fitty predicted No, President Chavez loses (H$500 at 57%)
40 weeks ago
oppugner predicted No, President Chavez loses (H$100 at 54%)

Comments (3)

I dig Hugo...I hope he is successful in this endeavor.
posted 40 weeks ago
  2 frogchop
What happens if it's like the Zimbabwe election and the results are never clear but he stays in power anyway? Would that be tallied as a win?
posted 40 weeks ago
  3 balcacer
1.- BETTTING STOP'S AT 12:00 est ( GMT - 5 ) SUNDAY !!! MUCH BEFORE THE STREET POLLS POST TAKES ACTION , THE ONE THAT ASK YOU OUTSIDE THE VOTING BOTH.

HI FROG CHOP. I HOPE THIS IS NOT ZIMBAWE. CHAVEZ MAY BE CRAZY, NUT'S , WAKO, PAZO, LOCO
BUT NOT STUPID.
ALL AMERICA IS WACTHING, BRAZIL, CDOLOMBIA, ARGE, MEXICO THEY WOULDN'T STAND A Z ELECCTION , TAKE CARE BRO
posted 40 weeks ago

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