Oil- up or down? Which comes first - $30 oil or $40 oil?

Here we go again!

Frogchop....beware, I am on a roll recently.......I do however, hope I do not roll of a cliff.

The recent 10% increase on Friday was an options buybacks fluff. Next trading day look for it to migrate back to the Thursday's pricing.

I was on the does neither side for a while, but ultimately, oil is selling cheaper than they can pump it out of the ground, so they'll tighten supply as necessary to get it over $40. The only question is if anything they do will be quick enough to make a difference by week's end.

I think the price goes back to $35 or even $34 by mid week because the buy backs will short again. I just don"t think here will be enough time to get back over $40 again by months end. I, as everyone, would love to see $30 win.....I can not imagine that actually happening...If so I will be bouncing off the walls.....mostly because I own a huge 43ft RV that I stupidly bought last year that gets 9 miles to the gallon....ugh!

pmk. Will it float? Stick a sail on and sail it down to my place.

maybe you should stock up on fuel now

Last month very soon after a similar market was wrongly settled at below 35 on Jan 19th, when the new contract (March) arrived, oil stayed at above 40$. This month the April contract will replace March contract on February 20th, which is at the end of this week. April contract is now above 40$. I am not sure but aren't there some chances that oil above 40 will happen again?

last market like this i remember looking at the futures and they were all higher too. that time oil actually headed down (obviously)

@bgrigore. Maybe the question should be suspended for the changeover period then reopened when the new month is trading. Then in future have the "neither" option at the expiry of the old contract. Would that solve the problem?

@petefin It's no problem. I just wanted everybody, when placing their bets, to take into consideration that such change in price could happen when the new month is traded, that is February 20th this month.
The way the question is framed and whether their should be suspension for the changeover period is your decision and bayoubear's of course. I do not have much experience on these, just started to watch oil markets last month.

I think we are all looking at the price of OIL on the front page of everything out there from Marketwatch.com to Yahoo.com which is (from my understanding) the contract price for the following month. I wish we could get a standard definition that carries forward for this market so that there is no confusion. In my interpretation, it would be the closing price at 1pm EST (maybe it is 2pm) for oil contracts for March 2009. Let me know if I am right or wrong.

On another note, I predict tomorrow will drop a buck or two because friday's increase was a buyback of options for those who shorted it. They will jump back in after taking cash off the table. Dive baby dive! I hope prices sink.....how can we not hope for it as consumers. I think that there is not enough time to get to 30 by months end. I think it will simply hover around $35....right smack dab in the middle.

Agree that a common reference is needed when defining crude oil markets. Past markets have used the NYMEX LS Crude Oil page as the last word:
http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx

Perhaps the best way to look at these markets is to assume light sweet crude, unless specified as Brent....also, perhaps it should specify a particular month's futures so that there's not a changeover midway through the cycle...for example, March futures end on 2/20 I believe and the next contract will be for April Futures which should run through March 20. So there could be a question related to the April Futures prices which might suspend a few days before the contract does..........

@bayoubear. Agreed. Next time I will use the changeover as the endpoint for the question rather rather the end of the month with suspend date about three days before. I'll spell it out clearly in the question background so new players get it from the start. Will run it by you and the regular punters on the question to see if we can get it to create the best market possible. Soon Hubdub LS Crude will be the international benchmark.

Alert!!!!....I am giving money away!

Amazingly enough, I think you nailed this one.

I think it closed 40.03 for the new April contract, which is the new Light Sweet Crude Oil contract, March contract expired today. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={95c7f397-9900-492e-ae4b-525651af766a}

So, this won't be settled at $40? It's already at $40...

I think it is closing price that we see on the tv and Marketwatch.com ect.... The statement of:

Background: Currently at $34.46 on NYMEX. This is now below production cost for all but a few producers. Surely significant cuts to supply must start kicking in soon. This is Light Crude CL on NYMEX, not Brent.
Suspend date 24 Feb.

Would support my statement.

The price as of me writing this note would show a price of $38.94 currently.

Additionally the suspend date supports my position as well. Otherwise the suspend date and the contract date would leave a void to exploit.

Just to keep everyone honest, I am dumping a buch of HUBDUB$ in here

I think it is closing price that we see on the tv and Marketwatch.com ect.... The statement of:

Background: Currently at $34.46 on NYMEX. This is now below production cost for all but a few producers. Surely significant cuts to supply must start kicking in soon. This is Light Crude CL on NYMEX, not Brent.
Suspend date 24 Feb.

Would support my statement.

The price as of me writing this note would show a price of $38.94 currently.

Additionally the suspend date supports my position as well. Otherwise the suspend date and the contract date would leave a void to exploit.

Just to keep everyone honest, I am dumping a buch of HUBDUB$ in here

until the overlords make a decision. That being said (I am willing to reverse or lose my wager in an attempt to keep the integrity of the game). The game has treated me more than well....I make this wager with those intentions.

Well, if this is about the current price of CL "in play" (because it doesn't say ANYWHERE that this is about the March contract only) on NYMEX, I think it would be fair to use the NYMEX LS Crude Oil page as the last word, just like ddannywms mentioned:
http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx

The most recent settle is $40.03. Besides, I don't see how there is a void to exploit since, if you knew that the contract was going to change before the suspend date, then you could have also been monitoring the price for the contract that was going to kick in. Ignorance is a killer in games (for those who didn't take the changeover into account), and I don't see how that shouldn't be true in this one also. Besides, it's not as if the April price was static. In fact, it was only until close to the changeover that it reached $40.

If it is 40.03 and it is closed out...well...we are still able to wager. I have essentially cash out all my bets and started over. My risk level is not extremely limited.

Well, it all depends on what the overlords decide. We're basically wagering on that right now.

First time I've been referred to as an overlord...sounds kinda nice, but I'm not sure I like it...

Here goes my way of looking at it...the market that was in consideration Friday, 2/20, was the March contract market, which did not close over $40.00.........The April contract market, which did close at $40.03 was not the 'current' market for Friday and won't be until trading reopens on the 23rd. So the way I'm seeing it is that the question is still open and hasn't been settled. This is one of the reasons I suggested to Petefin that he might want to consider tying the market period to the contract periods in the future.

Of course Stridernemesis has a valid point about understand the shifts between contracts and taking that into consideration....

Willing to listen to more points of view though..........

Strider's point is good but for this time we should stick to the way this question has always operated, ie it's the price when the market reopens that counts. Next time we run this question this the best way to handle the contract changeover will be sorted and I'm still open to suggestions.

Not against petefin's point of view. Anything's fair when the rules aren't strictly established.

CL closed over the weekend at $40.15 so shouldn't this be settled now?

why is this not settling? CL closed on sunday at over $40...

friday was the last day for march contract trading (which led to some confusion as to whether march or april contracts should be used). sunday's trading was on april contracts, which closed at $40.15, and with the expiration of march contracts, there shouldn't be any confusion?

Sunday is not a open trade day. Holidays and weekends are not real trade days. I know I am not saying it very eloquently. There is tremendous opportunity ere when the market is tettering over/under $40 a barrell. Earlier today one could have cashed out for nearly 98% if they wanted to....it appears that some did. The market stayed open and so it appears that the price you are seeing is not the actual price (not saying that you - stlj9174 do not have a good point). I simply suggest that there was and is still great opportunity for any others on the other side of the market to unload and re-adjust the risk accordingly....I did so and lost alot repositioning.

In the future we need to get this question stated with lesser loopholes (on its face it is fine, but I have participated in previous ones so I know what the ground rules appear to be). I am not trying to offend anyone, just saying that at one point we have to agree to disagree and move on as there was a selling opportunity to offer those who are unhappy a way out.

yeah, i agree with petefin - maybe future questions should be tied to contract expiration - that should take care of any issues in the future

Next time the description really needs all the facts (which contract, closing time, days counting etc).
The oil questions have high valantility and suspence but should be fairer and easier to watch - like the DJIA at cnn finance.
Does anyone know a link to an undelayed nymex?

ugh!!!!

ARGH!!!!