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Will Duch be convicted in this trial?

Background: On February 17, 2009, Duch, also known as Kang Kek Iew, will face charges of war crimes, crimes against humanity, torture and homicide. Duch is the first Khmer Rouge leader to face trial. His trial will be conducted by a UN-backed Khmer Rouge tribunal.

The 66 year-old Duch oversaw Tuol Sleng prison in Phnom Penh. The prison held an estimated 16,000 prisoners. Only 14 are believed to have survived. Duch fled Phnom Penh on January 7, 1979. He surrendered to Cambodian authorities in 1999.

Additional information:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUKSP337823
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEeYUu64_X5Q&refer=home
http://www.tuolsleng.com/

Settlement details:As reported by http://www.reuters.com or another major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
86%
No
14%
Question suspends in 5 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Sun 15th Feb 9:04pm PST by onedave[Power User]
Suspended Wed 1st Apr 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Thu 16th Apr 6:38pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-04-01 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Thu 16th Apr 6:38pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: We're re-opening this one as the trial may go on for several more months.

http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BNews/Asia/Story/A1Story20090415-135372.html
Suspended Fri 1st May 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Sun 3rd May 6:52pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-05-01 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Sun 3rd May 6:52pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: Again re-opening this for another month as the trial continues.
Suspended Mon 1st Jun 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Fri 12th Jun 4:21am PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-06-01 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Fri 12th Jun 4:21am PST by sqlman[Admin]: The trial still continues, so we'll re-open for another month.
Suspended Wed 1st Jul 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Sat 18th Jul 6:06am PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-07-01 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Sat 18th Jul 6:06am PST by sqlman[Admin]: The trial is expected to continue until at least September, but we'll re-open until the first of August and see what happens then...
Suspended Sat 1st Aug 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Aug 3:32am PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-08-01 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Mon 3rd Aug 3:32am PST by sqlman[Admin]: The trial still continues, so we'll re-open again.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gIkk0CUHMP_fMcrg9CqTa38dJIgwD99RA24G0
Suspended Tue 1st Sep 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Sun 13th Sep 2:59am PST by sqlman[Admin]: was: "2009-09-01 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Sun 13th Sep 2:59am PST by sqlman[Admin]: A verdict is not expected until 2010, so we'll unsuspend this for the remainder of the year.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1212360/The-Englishman-butchered-Cambodias-killing-fields-The-terrifying-tale-British-tourist-blundered-horror-Pol-Pots-Khmer-Rouge.html

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (22)

20 weeks ago
bennie3103 predicted Yes (H$50 at 86%)
24 weeks ago
donnamil predicted Yes (H$50 at 87%)
24 weeks ago
vanderkrogt predicted Yes (H$50 at 87%)
29 weeks ago
andytom predicted Yes (H$100 at 87%)
33 weeks ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted Yes (H$10,000 at 83%)

Comments (3)

  1 dingoh
Tuol Sleng is an incredibly moving place to visit. It is difficult to describe what you see there.
posted 39 weeks ago
  2 sqlman[Admin]
I've read that after leaving Phnom Penh, the guy founded a purse-making company in Cambodia called 'Duch Bags'. :)
posted 39 weeks ago
  3 tisha[Admin]
This website is likely to report the fate of Duch.
http://www.krtrial.info/?language=english#fragment-1
posted 24 weeks ago

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