Net worth: H$1,000
Guest:Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's virtual currency, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
Forums
PoliticsSportEntertainmentWorldBusinessTechnologyScienceGeneral

Will the stimulus bill actually results in millions of new jobs?

Background: President Obama has repeatedly said that the recently signed stimulus bill will relate in millions of new jobs. Millions of new jobs should certainly positively impact the recently growing unemployment numbers.

Market is asking how many of the next 12 months will have unemployment numbers that are improved from the same month in the previous year.

For comparison purposes here are the unemployment numbers I'm using from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Feb 2008 4.8%
Mar 2008 5.1%
Apr 2008 5.0%
May 2008 5.5%
Jun 2008 5.5%
Jul 2008 5.7%
Aug 2008 6.1%
Sep 2008 6.1%
Oct 2008 6.5%
Nov 2008 6.8%
Dec 2008 7.2%
Jan 2009 7.6%

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
None of 12 months have improved unemployment #'s
98%
1 or 2 months have improved unemployment #'s
2%
3 or 4 months have improved unemployment #'s
0%
5 or 6 months have improved unemployment #'s
0%
7 or 8 months have improved unemployment #'s
0%
9 or 10 months have improved unemployment #'s
0%
11 or all 12 months have improved unemployment #'s
0%
Question suspends in 7 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 15th Jan 2010 3:59pm PST (7 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: None of 12 months have improved unemployment #'s: 30%, 1 or 2 months have improved unemployment #'s: 20%, 3 or 4 months have improved unemployment #'s: 17%, 5 or 6 months have improved unemployment #'s: 15%, 7 or 8 months have improved unemployment #'s: 10%, 9 or 10 months have improved unemployment #'s: 5%, 11 or all 12 months have improved unemployment #'s: 3%

Action history:

Created Tue 17th Feb 11:59pm PST by valornhonor

Suspend date: Fri 15th Jan 2010 3:59pm PST (7 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (226)

2 weeks ago
horsefeathers predicted 1 or 2 months have improved unemployment #'s (H$100 at 2%)
2 weeks ago
horsefeathers predicted 1 or 2 months have improved unemployment #'s (H$20 at 1%)
2 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted None of 12 months have improved unemployment #'s (H$5,000 at 99%)
2 weeks ago
kgholderman predicted None of 12 months have improved unemployment #'s (H$100 at 98%)
2 weeks ago
kgholderman predicted 1 or 2 months have improved unemployment #'s (H$100 at 1%)

Comments (11)

I would love to be wrong on this one.
posted 39 weeks ago
  2 zoey_x
After the economy was hit by the financial crisis and the government declared that the country is in recession, many faced layoffs and foreclosures. No one should be blame but ourselves why the economy declined. Irresponsible lending habit is one reason they think why our economy crashed down. There's a lot of press coverage dedicated to a credit crunch. Well, there is one - banks are less willing to lend to anyone, meaning there is a credit crunch, and so if you need some short term credit, banks will be less willing to help you out. There are a lot of job losses, and that means not everyone can pay them back. Well, there are other options - you could look into payday loans. Payday loans are short term loans for small amounts that you pay back quickly, usually your next payday. Some lenders can use direct deposit - that's one of the payday loan benefits - so if you feel the credit crunch, try filling out a personal loan application.

http://personalmoneystore.com/moneyblog/2009/05/07/payday-loans-beat-credit-crunch/
posted 27 weeks ago
Part-Time Workers Mask Unemployment Woes
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/15/business/economy/15leonhardt.html?_r=1&hp
In California and a handful of other states, one out of every five people who would like to be working full time is not now doing so.

It is a startling sign of the pain that the Great Recession is inflicting, and it is largely missed by the official, oft-repeated statistics on unemployment. The national unemployment rate has risen to 9.5 percent, the highest level in more than a quarter-century. Yet it still excludes all those who have given up looking for a job and those part-time workers who want to be working full time.

nclude them — as the Labor Department does when calculating its broadest measure of the job market — and the rate reached 23.5 percent in Oregon this spring, according to a New York Times analysis of state-by-state data. It was 21.5 percent in both Michigan and Rhode Island and 20.3 percent in California. In Tennessee, Nevada and several other states that have relied heavily on manufacturing or housing, the rate was just under 20 percent this spring and may have since surpassed it.

Almost nobody believes that unemployment has finished rising, either. On Tuesday, President Obama said he expected it to “tick up for several months.
[More at the ... link]
posted 18 weeks ago
  4 dieseldog
he did it on purpose. he's trying to create more jobs in the teleprompter industry. :O)


WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama had just started a spirited defense of his economic stimulus plan on Monday when one of his teleprompter screens came loose, crashed to the floor and shattered into pieces.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/07/13/whoops-obamas-teleprompter-breaks-mid-speech/
posted 18 weeks ago
Do you really think the unemployment rate will drop to <7.6% by Dec??
I think somebody is not reading the question carefully. It asks "will it be down from the corresponding month last year?" no down from the month before!
posted 13 weeks ago
  6 bgrigore
Update unemployment rates for 2009:
February 8.1
March 8.5
April 8.9
May 9.4
June 9.5
July 9.4
Data for August on September 4th.
The biggest unemployment rate in 2008 was 7.2% in December 2008. The question seems to ask for improved unemployment rate not just a decrease in number of unemployed. Consistent with the background this should be the acceptation of "unemployment numbers".
An drop in unemployment rate to 7.1% in December 2009 looks impossible at the moment. Probably we won't see this level of unemployment in the next years.
posted 13 weeks ago
Nobailatol - for ED
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0vvQF2-InU
posted 10 weeks ago
Obama Econ Guru Predicts High Unemployment For Years
http://www.aim.org/don-irvine-blog/obama-econ-guru-predicts-high-unemployment-for-years/

...

That may be true but it was the president that promised that he needed the stimulus to prevent unemployment from topping 9%. We are well past that point with predictions that have the unemployment rate peaking at a whopping 10.2% and doesn't include the millions of discouraged workers. When the only evidence Obama and Summers can point to for an improving economy is that the pace of job losses are diminishing that isn't exactly a receipe for success.

Consumer confidence may be increasing but consumers still haven't opened their wallets as freely as they did in the boom years which will continue to be a drag on the economy. Also don't forget the near record foreclosure rate which the president conveniently left out of his speech on Wednesday when he discussed the economy. This too won't be fixed overnight and will slow any economic recovery.

Obama and the Democrats seem to be convinced that spending massive amounts of taxpayer dollars will bring the economy back given enough time. At the pace we are going though how much more time can the American public afford?
[More at the link...]
posted 9 weeks ago
  9 dieseldog
That may be true but it was the president that promised that he needed the stimulus to prevent unemployment from topping 9% obama said 8%! :O)
posted 9 weeks ago
So, "Are you better off today than you were $4,000,000,000,000 ago?"
posted 6 weeks ago
  11 lori0416
As one of the many people looking for a job right now due to lay offs or whatever all I hope is that something happens soon. Who cares why or how there are alot of families lives at stake here. We were promised so much with nothing in return. Empty promises mean nothing to those who are trying to support and raise their family.The American people can't afford any more time to be spent on this topic ACTION is required!!!!!
posted 6 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

Stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real news stories! Win more if you're right and climb the leaderboards Learn more...

Name
Email
New password
By joining you are agreeing to our terms of service

Related News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags


score: 10
One Cheer For The Jobless Numbers

March 6 lows) before the next bull market begins, clearly the markets are ready to put Q1 behind us. Unemployment numbers are not the only indicators we have that things are looking up. Late-cycle sectors, such as consumer staples, health care and

score: 10
David Blanchflower not the blooming sage they make him out to be

market with credible, detailed calculations of how much these banks could lose. The same goes for the latest US unemployment numbers. Once again, financial markets surged when news leaked that 'only' 539,000 Americans lost their jobs last month less than

score: 10
Market Report: Demand hopes drive Kazakhmys higher

US banks, which were to be released late last night, after London closed. 'Friday sees the release of US unemployment numbers for April and it could well be just an exercise in risk reduction ahead of this major announcement,' Tim Hughes, the head of

score: 10
FTSE 100 holds on to gain as global rally falters

positive and there has been little in the way of surprises. He said: 'Friday sees the release of US unemployment numbers for April and it could well be just an exercise in risk reduction ahead of this major announcement.' Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist

score: 10
Banks fall again as FTSE 100 gives up gains

remained fairly positive and there has been little in the way of surprises. Friday sees the release of US unemployment numbers for April and it could well be just an exercise in risk reduction ahead of this major announcement. Institutional brokers