
Will the stimulus bill actually results in millions of new jobs?
Market is asking how many of the next 12 months will have unemployment numbers that are improved from the same month in the previous year.
For comparison purposes here are the unemployment numbers I'm using from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Feb 2008 4.8%
Mar 2008 5.1%
Apr 2008 5.0%
May 2008 5.5%
Jun 2008 5.5%
Jul 2008 5.7%
Aug 2008 6.1%
Sep 2008 6.1%
Oct 2008 6.5%
Nov 2008 6.8%
Dec 2008 7.2%
Jan 2009 7.6%
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
| None of 12 months have improved unemployment #'s |
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| 1 or 2 months have improved unemployment #'s |
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| 3 or 4 months have improved unemployment #'s |
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| 5 or 6 months have improved unemployment #'s |
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| 7 or 8 months have improved unemployment #'s |
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| 9 or 10 months have improved unemployment #'s |
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| 11 or all 12 months have improved unemployment #'s |
|
- Activity: H$208,267 |
- Predictions: 226 |
Comments: 11
Suspend date: Fri 15th Jan 2010 3:59pm PST (7 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: None of 12 months have improved unemployment #'s: 30%, 1 or 2 months have improved unemployment #'s: 20%, 3 or 4 months have improved unemployment #'s: 17%, 5 or 6 months have improved unemployment #'s: 15%, 7 or 8 months have improved unemployment #'s: 10%, 9 or 10 months have improved unemployment #'s: 5%, 11 or all 12 months have improved unemployment #'s: 3%
Action history:
Suspend date: Fri 15th Jan 2010 3:59pm PST (7 weeks to go) details
Predictions (226)
Comments (11)
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http://personalmoneystore.com/moneyblog/2009/05/07/payday-loans-beat-credit-crunch/
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/15/business/economy/15leonhardt.html?_r=1&hp
In California and a handful of other states, one out of every five people who would like to be working full time is not now doing so.
It is a startling sign of the pain that the Great Recession is inflicting, and it is largely missed by the official, oft-repeated statistics on unemployment. The national unemployment rate has risen to 9.5 percent, the highest level in more than a quarter-century. Yet it still excludes all those who have given up looking for a job and those part-time workers who want to be working full time.
nclude them — as the Labor Department does when calculating its broadest measure of the job market — and the rate reached 23.5 percent in Oregon this spring, according to a New York Times analysis of state-by-state data. It was 21.5 percent in both Michigan and Rhode Island and 20.3 percent in California. In Tennessee, Nevada and several other states that have relied heavily on manufacturing or housing, the rate was just under 20 percent this spring and may have since surpassed it.
Almost nobody believes that unemployment has finished rising, either. On Tuesday, President Obama said he expected it to “tick up for several months.”
[More at the ... link]
WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama had just started a spirited defense of his economic stimulus plan on Monday when one of his teleprompter screens came loose, crashed to the floor and shattered into pieces.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/07/13/whoops-obamas-teleprompter-breaks-mid-speech/
I think somebody is not reading the question carefully. It asks "will it be down from the corresponding month last year?" no down from the month before!
February 8.1
March 8.5
April 8.9
May 9.4
June 9.5
July 9.4
Data for August on September 4th.
The biggest unemployment rate in 2008 was 7.2% in December 2008. The question seems to ask for improved unemployment rate not just a decrease in number of unemployed. Consistent with the background this should be the acceptation of "unemployment numbers".
An drop in unemployment rate to 7.1% in December 2009 looks impossible at the moment. Probably we won't see this level of unemployment in the next years.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0vvQF2-InU
http://www.aim.org/don-irvine-blog/obama-econ-guru-predicts-high-unemployment-for-years/
...
That may be true but it was the president that promised that he needed the stimulus to prevent unemployment from topping 9%. We are well past that point with predictions that have the unemployment rate peaking at a whopping 10.2% and doesn't include the millions of discouraged workers. When the only evidence Obama and Summers can point to for an improving economy is that the pace of job losses are diminishing that isn't exactly a receipe for success.
Consumer confidence may be increasing but consumers still haven't opened their wallets as freely as they did in the boom years which will continue to be a drag on the economy. Also don't forget the near record foreclosure rate which the president conveniently left out of his speech on Wednesday when he discussed the economy. This too won't be fixed overnight and will slow any economic recovery.
Obama and the Democrats seem to be convinced that spending massive amounts of taxpayer dollars will bring the economy back given enough time. At the pace we are going though how much more time can the American public afford?
[More at the link...]
9%obama said 8%! :O)Please log in or join to add a comment