Created Wed 18th Feb 2009 4am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

Will an earthquake in the Puerto Rico Trench trigger a tsunami that affects the US in 2009?

Settled as No

Didn't happen...

Background:

Background: An ongoing swarm of earthquakes has been occurring over many weeks with no end in sight. The quakes are appearing just off the northeast coast of Puerto Rico in a subduction zone known as the Puerto Rico Trench. The Trench--home to the Milwaukee Deep, the deepest spot in the entire Atlantic Ocean at 8,605m/28,232ft--is very similar to the Cascadia and the Sumatra subduction zones. (The Sumatra zone, you'll recall, is the birthplace of the massive 2004 day-after-Christmas earthquake that resulted in the historic and tragic tsunami.)

According to the USGS, there were more than 60 earthquakes in the trench measuring 2.5 or greater this past Sunday, February 15th, and there've been more than 100 total since February 12th.

Clearly there's something afoot.

Scientists are busily collecting data that could better help predict an event which could have devastating consequences as the result of a tsunami hitting the Caribbean region and/or the east coast of the United States.

This market asks whether a tsunami emanating from an earthquake and/or landslide in the Puerto Rico Trench will affect the mainland coast of the US in 2009. To qualify, a tsunami at least one foot high must be recorded at one or more points along the mainland coast.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. To settle as 'yes', a tsunami of at least one foot in height must be recorded at one or more points along the mainland coast of the US.

Forecast history %

Yes

98%

Settled as No on Sat 2nd Jan 9:07am PST

Activity: H$96,710
Predictions: 58
Comments: 5

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 8:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 2nd Jan 9:07am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Dec 2009 8:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 10%

Action history:

Created Wed 18th Feb 2009 4am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

Changed Description Wed 18th Feb 2009 4:26am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: show details

... and tragic tsunami.) <br/> <br~~/> According to~~/> <a ~~the USGS (~~href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/295_20_eqs.php), >According to the USGS</a>, there were more than 60

Changed Description Wed 18th Feb 2009 4:27am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: show details

... /recenteqsww/Maps/10/295_20_eqs.php>">According to the USGS</a>,

Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 8:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Fri 1st Jan 12:27pm PST by

excontender Level 13, Psychic (H$84,478)

: Time to settle, all quiet in PR.

Settled as 'No' Sat 2nd Jan 9:07am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: Didn't happen...

hide

Get widget!

Predictions (58)

10 weeks ago

thepeoplegeekllc Level 13, Psychic (H$95,060)

predicted No (H$1,300 at 96%)

10 weeks ago

excontender Level 13, Psychic (H$84,478)

predicted No (H$587 at 96%)

10 weeks ago

cheesenips Level 16, Oracle (H$715,606)

predicted No (H$200 at 96%)

10 weeks ago

cheesenips Level 16, Oracle (H$715,606)

predicted No (H$4,000 at 96%)

10 weeks ago

thepeoplegeekllc Level 13, Psychic (H$95,060)

predicted No (H$5,000 at 97%)

Comments (5)

tuff_sledding [Power User]

A tsunami at least 1 foot high?? Get real. How do you distinguish a 1 foot tsunami from regular wave action? Besides, who cares about a 1 foot tsunami, even if you could detect it?

posted 1 year ago

tisha

A tsunami is distinguished from a wave by what caused it rather than how large it is. We've used this definition for previous tsunami questions, my understanding is that tsunamis can be traced back to seismic activity and this is how they are officially classified, so if we hear scientific reports of a tsunami (even if it's virtually undetectable by the general public) we would have to payout this question.

posted 1 year ago

sqlman [Admin]

@tuff_sledding: as Tisha said, a tsunami is a completely different animal than a standard wind-generated wave. How are they distinguished? The 2004 Boxing Day tsunami was measured in mere inches at many places around the globe, including 2" at Brewlyn, England, 3.2" at Brest, France, and 3" at Magueyes Island, Puerto Rico. The Atlantic Tsunami Warning System, installed in 2006, is made up of buoys off the US East Coast; these are capable of detecting tsunami heights far less than 1". Why care about a one-foot tsunami? Given the way tsunami energy propagates, a 12" wave striking, say, Boston would be equal to perhaps a 12' wave striking the Virgin Island, and maybe a third that hitting Bermuda...something lots of people would care about, I think.

posted 1 year ago

sqlman [Admin]

If you think I'm joking, read this article about today's earthquake near Tonga: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/20/2521299.htm?section=world

Note the passage that reads "The centre's oceanographer, Dailin Wang, says the tsunami turned out to be very small...'Three or four centimetres. That's very small yes.'"

IOW, they are detectable, and they do detect them...

posted 51 weeks ago

sqlman [Admin]

08/15: a whole bunch--hundreds, actually--of quakes have occurred in the Puerto Rico trench over the past three days, leading some seismologists to believe something is going on. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/PR2/18.20.-67.-65.php

posted 30 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

Stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real news stories! Win more if you're right and climb the leaderboards Learn more...

By joining you are agreeing to our terms of service

Related News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags

score: 10

Gary Griggs, Our Ocean Backyard: Tsunamis: Should We Worry?

San Jose Mercury News 44 weeks ago

The word 'tsunami' generates an emotional response, much like earthquake or shark. It's just one of those scary things that is beyond our control and one that we never want to experience

score: 10

USGS announces earthquake research funding

UPI 44 weeks ago

'earthquake research' search results 'earthquake research funds' search results 'private agencies' search results RESTON, Va., May 5 (UPI) -- The U.S. Geological Survey says it has awarded $5 million

score: 10

Ancient tsunami 'hit New York'

BBC 45 weeks ago

By Molly Bentley Science reporter Such a wave today would flood Wall Street and the Long Island Expressway A huge wave crashed into the New York City region 2,300 years ago, dumping sediment and shells across Long

score: 10

Million-Ton Rock May Cause Caribbean Tsunami

National Geographic 45 weeks ago

for National Geographic News With only a few minutes' warning, a ten-story tsunami will shatter the usual peace of the Caribbean resort islands of Guadeloupe, a new study says (tsunami facts). The tsunami is expected to be generated when a major

score: 10

Tsunami to Hit Caribbean Islands?

National Geographic 45 weeks ago