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Will New York City get hit by a major Hurricane in 2009?

Background: New York is the best, greatest most awesomest city in the world, unfortunately it's also usually the setting of major disasters, fiction and non-fiction. The Day After Tomorrow anyone?

Besides a terrorist attack and the Russians though the greatest threat to my esteemed city is global warming, and more specifically a Hurricane. In the coming decade New York City will be much more prone to flooding, as much as 4 feet some scientists hypothesize. "All of the evidence from the science community is that the seas are going to rise," says Mayor Bloomberg.

Some more drastic hypothesis's predict New Yorks seea level may rise by 55 inches, which to a low lying city such as New York is worrisome to say the least.

New York is overdue for a major Hurricane hit, and the last one to hit back before 1950 did large, large amounts of damage, leveling most of Long Island, Katrina style. In the event of a hurricane city planning officials expect 'huge swaths of lower Manhattan and low-lying areas of the outer boroughs will be underwater during a moderate hurricane.'

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. A Hurricane of category 2 strength or higher must make landfall within 50 miles of New York City.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
4%
No
96%
Question suspends in 1 week

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 11:59pm PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 35%

Action history:

Created Wed 18th Feb 7:35am PST by ryanj

Suspend date: Mon 30th Nov 11:59pm PST (1 week to go) details

 

Predictions (83)

3 days ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted No (H$5,000 at 96%)
2 weeks ago
cosmosenfold predicted No (H$100 at 95%)
2 weeks ago
cosmosenfold predicted No (H$100 at 95%)
2 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted No (H$5,000 at 95%)
10 weeks ago
frogchop predicted No (H$10,000 at 92%)

Comments (4)

  1 cici
Yes, I remember the hurricane of 1938. New York City did not even know there had been a hurricane. Weather Bureau had reported "a chance of rain". Your right, it hit on Long Island, your question though refers to New York City. I was a little kid and thought the wind and rain were fantastic, I couldn't understand why my Mother wanted me to come in the house.
posted 39 weeks ago
I don't mean to be picky, but as far as I know, the definition of a major hurricane is cat 3 and above, not 2.
Second, I assume the category label will be the strength at landfall, not the highest category the storm achieved in its career. Is that correct?
posted 29 weeks ago
  3 shannn
If New York hasn't received a major hurricane since 1938, who's to stay it will happen this year? I vote no.
posted 17 weeks ago

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