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Dow - Up or down before April 1? Which comes first, 7000 or 8000?

Settled as Dow closes below 7000 first

Dow closed at 6763.29 on Monday, March 2...question is suspended and settlement will be set for 4:00 PM EST...any wagers made past that time will be voided and refunded.

Background:

Background: Here we go again. What can I say. Maybe a favourite poem would be appropriate.

The politicians
Who are buying huge cars
With hobnailed wheels
The size of cartwheels
Have a new plan.

They will put gravel in our navels
And ashphalt in our eyesockets
And lay us side by side
So we can play a greater part
In the road to destruction.

RIP DJIA

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Dow closes above 8000 first
0%
Dow closes below 7000 first
100%
Dow does neither before 31 Mar 09
0%
Settled as Dow closes below 7000 first on Mon 2nd Mar 3:11pm PST

Suspend date: Thu 26th Mar 8:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 2nd Mar 3:11pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 2nd Mar 1pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Dow closes above 8000 first : 30%, Dow closes below 7000 first: 40%, Dow does neither before 31 Mar 09: 30%

Action history:

Created Thu 19th Feb 1:54pm PST by gonegonegone
Changed Question text Mon 23rd Feb 3:56am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: ... down before April 1? Which comes first, 7000 or
Suspended Mon 2nd Mar 1:28pm PST by infernalmachine[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Mon 2nd Mar 1:28pm PST by infernalmachine[Power User]: closed at 6763.29 today so settles as 7000
cutoff should be at around 4pm EST
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI (market suspended)
Settled as 'Dow closes below 7000 first' Mon 2nd Mar 3:11pm PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Dow closed at 6763.29 on Monday, March 2...question is suspended and settlement will be set for 4:00 PM EST...any wagers made past that time will be voided and refunded.

Suspend date: Thu 26th Mar 8:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 2nd Mar 3:11pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 2nd Mar 1pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (1099)

37 weeks ago
pmk2668 predicted Dow does neither before 31 Mar 09 (H$5 at 0%)
37 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted Dow closes below 7000 first (H$500 at 97%)
37 weeks ago
suentek predicted Dow closes below 7000 first (H$20 at 96%)
37 weeks ago
bayoubear[Admin] predicted Dow does neither before 31 Mar 09 (H$50 at 0%)
37 weeks ago
tuff_sledding[Power User] predicted Dow closes below 7000 first (H$1,000 at 95%)

Comments (26)

The red corner comes out fighting. Go the bulls! Nice to see a little optimism around the place.
posted 39 weeks ago
Where did that poem come from Petefin? If it was original, what was the motivation? I am curious.
posted 39 weeks ago
Had a book of poems called The Mersey Beat in the '60s. Roger McGough, Brian Patten and Adrian Henri. Not sure which one wrote this poem. Funny, can remember poems from 40 years ago better than what I did on Monday.
posted 39 weeks ago
  4 pmk2668
wild times ahead in this one.....i really think it does neither at the end of the day. this may be my new money pit (or maker if i get lucky again)
posted 39 weeks ago
  5 pmk2668
after today there are 10 closings to settle out and we are pretty much smack dab in the middle 7500-ish. The market would have to average a drop of 50 points (which it may easily do that 2-3times over today alone, however, we are also butting up against record territory marks and that is hard to break through as well. I could be totally nuts (and have been) but it appears to be a very risky wager to think it will end up below the 7000 mark. In the meantime, I will continue to pound this one down once my choice gets down low enough as I am desperate (key word desperate) to continue to climb up the leader board....which is proving very challenging.
posted 39 weeks ago
  6 frogchop
Scratch that, only 300 points to go. Did you see the drop on citibank and bank or america today? OMG! That was insane. 30% single day loss for two of the largest banks in the world.
posted 39 weeks ago
Well done! You won $x on Dow up or down - Which comes first 0 or 500. Settled as Dow reaches 0 first.
The DJIA today officially reached zero as the last remaining company McDonalds Corp filed for bankruptcy and still no other firms qualify for the index. Unemployment reached 100% as President Obama handed himself his redundancy notice. (Last nights bad dreams before they fade into reality)
posted 39 weeks ago
The times they are a-confusin'!

Mixed messages from the government - bailout/buyouts VS rumors of allowing bankruptcy judges to rewrite mortgages...

"Investors remain fearful that the government keeps changing the game with its bailout efforts, and nobody wants to play when they don't know the rules. The environment has killed firms like Citigroup and Bank of America, with shareholders unsure whether further government intervention will dilute their investment or even wipe them out with bank nationalization."
http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/22/briefing-americas-outlook-markets-economy_banks_37.html

It creates exciting and volatile Hubdub graphs :-D
posted 38 weeks ago
  9 frogchop
Tru-dat, FoF! As someone who still does some personal stock investing without a broker, I've felt like a blind man wandering around barefoot in a broken glass factory. I'm schizophrenic when it comes to bailouts and rescue packages; on the one hand, the companies should reap what they sow and the tax payer shouldn't be on the hook for hundreds of billions in bad investments. On the other hand, the lack of action could lead to a financial catastrophe on a scale that none of us can even imagine, with thousands of businesses and jobs plummeting into freefall. What would the world look like when the dust settled?!?
posted 38 weeks ago
  10 buckeyetom
Petefin I like your style.
posted 38 weeks ago
re #7: petefin, that has me roflmao!
posted 38 weeks ago
  12 sqlman[Admin]
The way I figure it, it took Dubya eight years to gut Clinton's very seaworthy Ship of Prosperity and rebirth it as Bush's Leaky Oil Tanker of Doom, then aim it straight at the jagged rocks at full steam. Obama and his team clearly have the intelligence and understanding to know how to turn the boat around; the question is, is there enough time to do it? And do the American people have the stomach for some of the braking and turning required to avoid a collision?

It's good to know that many leftover members of Dubya's crew are too busy fighting for a stint at the helm that they fail to realize there may not even be a helm if quick action isn't taken.

<cue Celine Dion singing the theme from Titanic>
posted 38 weeks ago
  13 ironman288
sqlman, i agree except in complete reverse of everything you just said. Sub in Reagan for Clinton, and Clinton for Bush and we're almost there. Now finish it off with Obama finishing what Clinton started... and we're done.
posted 38 weeks ago
  14 dieseldog
Soldier doubts eligibility, defies president's orders
'As an officer, my sworn oath to support and defend our Constitution requires this'

A U.S. soldier on active duty in Iraq has called President Obama an "impostor" in a statement in which he affirmed plans to join as plaintiff in a challenge to Obama's eligibility to be commander in chief

"Until Mr. Obama releases a 'vault copy' of his original birth certificate for public review, I will consider him neither my Commander in Chief nor my President, but rather, a usurper to the Office - an impostor," his statement said.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=89837

bush is the greatest president ever! nobama and the dems are crooks!

This message bought to you by the committe for we wish Drangfang would return to HD
posted 38 weeks ago
@ddog. I think talkback radio might be a better space for you mate.
posted 38 weeks ago
  16 dieseldog
pete - i have the face for radio. :O)
posted 38 weeks ago
  17 sqlman[Admin]
Well, if it's on WorldNet Daily, it must be true!!! And objective!!! And intelligently reported!!! :)
posted 38 weeks ago
  18 chatarra
@Sqlman
...again, shoots the messenger - not the message.
posted 38 weeks ago
2nd U.S. soldier in Iraq challenges eligibility
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=89941
posted 38 weeks ago
  20 dieseldog
jonathan turly is hardly a right winger nor does he work for big oil. maybe its the left wing media who are not giving the news fair and balanced. :)

http://jonathanturley.org/2009/02/24/active-soldier-joins-lawsuit-challenging-obamas-right-to-serve-as-president/#more-8455
posted 38 weeks ago
  21 bods
This needs to be a closed because DOW has plunged below 7k and question is answered on which comes first 7k or 8k
posted 37 weeks ago
"Closes" is the key word.....
posted 37 weeks ago
  23 cici
thanks for reminding me choices says "closes". I saw the woman who takes all my money here at HD just put a goodsized bet on below 7000, and my blood pressure went up that she would come out on the golden side again and I would once more be licking my wounds.
posted 37 weeks ago
  24 sqlman[Admin]
I only shoot the messenger if he's proven himself to lack in the truth and honesty it takes to deliver a legitimate message; if not that, what good is he? :) Anyway, look at the sensational way in which WND 'reported' the wannabe treason-maker, and the straight journalistic method in which Turley did. Light years apart, if you ask me...
posted 37 weeks ago
  25 bayoubear[Admin]
As we get closer to the end of the day, I may set this question to temporarily suspend to prevent any last minute wagers on a 'done deal', but with things sitting at 95% that may not be necessary...looks like today will be the day to settle this one....
posted 37 weeks ago
This question was quoted/linked here:
http://www.thestandard.com/news/2009/02/25/stock-market-rebound-coming-soon
posted 36 weeks ago

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