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Will the Southern Kuril Islands/Northern Territories be returned from Russia to Japan?

Background: Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev have held talks on resolving a decades-old territorial dispute.
Japan and Russia have never signed a formal peace treaty after the World War II because they have been in dispute over four islands occupied by Soviet forces.
What Russia calls the Southern Kurils are known in Japan as the Northern Territories. The area in question is a cluster of islands between the two countries amid rich fishing grounds and billions of dollars worth of undersea gas and oil reserves.
After the talks Mr Aso said he and Mr Medvedev had agreed to accelerate their efforts to resolve the territorial dispute without leaving it to future generations.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7896325.stm

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gnUQTYNEjNrg4iR1umf7XWuCJM9wD96DQUL80

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. If none of the islands is returned before the suspend date, then it is a "no". If at least one of the islands will be returned, answer is "yes".

 
Forecast history %
Yes
34%
No
66%
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Sat 31st Dec 2011 11:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 35%

Action history:

Created Thu 19th Feb 2:10pm PST by orlin

Suspend date: Sat 31st Dec 2011 11:59pm PST (2 years to go) details

 

Predictions (9)

6 weeks ago
robinetbatman predicted No (H$100 at 66%)
9 weeks ago
raptor1217 predicted No (H$100 at 66%)
11 weeks ago
othmanchhoul predicted No (H$200 at 66%)
11 weeks ago
indie1977 predicted Yes (H$100 at 34%)
20 weeks ago
kolia39 predicted No (H$100 at 66%)

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