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Oscar Winners List; Leak or Fake?

Settled as Less than 21 accurate

Not an impressive list...

Actor in a supporting role: Heath Ledger - yes
Actress in a leading role: Kate Winslet - yes
Actress in a supporting role: Amy Adams ----- WRONG
Animated Feature Film: Wall-E ----- yes
Art Direction: The Dark Knight ----- WRONG
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire ----- yes
Costume Design: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ----- WRONG
Directing: Slumdog Millionaire ---- yes
Documentary feature: Man on Wire --- yes
Documentary short: The Conscience of Nhem En -- WRONG
Film editing: Milk --- WRONG
Foreign language film: Departures --- yes
Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ----- yes
Music (Score): Defiance --- WRONG
Music (Song): Down to Earth (Wall-E) --- WRONG
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire -- yes
Short film (animated): Presto --- WRONG
Short film (live action): Auf Der Strecke (On The Line) --- WRONG
Sound editing: Wall-E --- WRONG
Sound mixing: The Dark Knight --- WRONG
Visual effects: Iron Man --- WRONG
Writing (Adapted screenplay): The Reader ----- WRONG
Writing (Original screenplay): In Bruges ----- WRONG

Background:

Background: A letter which appears to be from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences listing the supposed winners for Sunday's Academy Awards has been circulating on the internet for the last few days. (http://tinyurl.com/czvjmm)

Official statement from the Academy is that it is a fake.

Will it prove accurate?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
100% accurate
17%
More than 20 of 24 accurate (but not 100%)
32%
Less than 21 accurate
51%
Settled as Less than 21 accurate on Mon 23rd Feb 6:37am PST

Suspend date: Sun 22nd Feb 5:30pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 23rd Feb 6:37am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 22nd Feb 5:30pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 100% accurate: 5%, More than 20 of 24 accurate (but not 100%): 35%, Less than 21 accurate: 60%

Action history:

Created Fri 20th Feb 9:21pm PST by mork[Power User]
Suspended Sun 22nd Feb 5:30pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 22nd Feb 6:57pm PST by sqlman[Admin]: Actor in a leading role: Mickey Rourke
Actor in a supporting role: Heath Ledger
Actress in a leading role: Kate Winslet
Actress in a supporting role: Amy Adams ----- WRONG
Animated Feature Film: Wall-E ----- CORRECT
Art Direction: The Dark Knight ----- WRONG
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire ----- CORRECT
Costume Design: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ----- WRONG
Directing: Slumdog Millionaire
Documentary feature: Man on Wire
Documentary short: The Conscience of Nhem En
Film editing: Milk
Foreign language film: Departures
Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ----- CORRECT
Music (Score): Defiance
Music (Song): Down to Earth (Wall-E)
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Short film (animated): Presto
Short film (live action): Auf Der Strecke (On The Line)
Sound editing: Wall-E
Sound mixing: The Dark Knight
Visual effects: Iron Man
Writing (Adapted screenplay): The Reader ----- WRONG
Writing (Original screenplay): In Bruges ----- WRONG


So far, the list has been wrong on 5 of the first 8:
1) Actress in a Supporting Role
2) Art Direction
3) Costume Design
4) Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
5) Writing (Original Screenplay)

...meaning, of course, that even if every other one is correct, the maximum will be 19...or, obviously, option #3.
Settlement requested Mon 23rd Feb 4:03am PST by pitchedoutsideleg: http://www.academyawards.com/oscarnight/winners/
Settled as 'Less than 21 accurate' Mon 23rd Feb 6:37am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: Not an impressive list...

Actor in a supporting role: Heath Ledger - yes
Actress in a leading role: Kate Winslet - yes
Actress in a supporting role: Amy Adams ----- WRONG
Animated Feature Film: Wall-E ----- yes
Art Direction: The Dark Knight ----- WRONG
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire ----- yes
Costume Design: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ----- WRONG
Directing: Slumdog Millionaire ---- yes
Documentary feature: Man on Wire --- yes
Documentary short: The Conscience of Nhem En -- WRONG
Film editing: Milk --- WRONG
Foreign language film: Departures --- yes
Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ----- yes
Music (Score): Defiance --- WRONG
Music (Song): Down to Earth (Wall-E) --- WRONG
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire -- yes
Short film (animated): Presto --- WRONG
Short film (live action): Auf Der Strecke (On The Line) --- WRONG
Sound editing: Wall-E --- WRONG
Sound mixing: The Dark Knight --- WRONG
Visual effects: Iron Man --- WRONG
Writing (Adapted screenplay): The Reader ----- WRONG
Writing (Original screenplay): In Bruges ----- WRONG

Suspend date: Sun 22nd Feb 5:30pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 23rd Feb 6:37am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 22nd Feb 5:30pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (177)

39 weeks ago
excontender predicted Less than 21 accurate (H$50 at 50%)
39 weeks ago
maissey predicted Less than 21 accurate (H$500 at 59%)
39 weeks ago
halbhalb predicted More than 20 of 24 accurate (but not 100%) (H$5 at 30%)
39 weeks ago
halbhalb predicted More than 20 of 24 accurate (but not 100%) (H$10 at 30%)
39 weeks ago
langbenj predicted 100% accurate (H$200 at 12%)

Comments (17)

  1 mork[Power User]
Leaked List:

Actor in a leading role: Mickey Rourke

Actor in a supporting role: Heath Ledger

Actress in a leading role: Kate Winslet

Actress in a supporting role: Amy Adams

Animated Feature Film: Wall-E

Art Direction: The Dark Knight

Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire

Costume Design: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Directing: Slumdog Millionaire

Documentary feature: Man on Wire

Documentary short: The Conscience of Nhem En

Film editing: Milk

Foreign language film: Departures

Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Music (Score): Defiance

Music (Song): Down to Earth (Wall-E)

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire

Short film (animated): Presto

Short film (live action): Auf Der Strecke (On The Line)

Sound editing: Wall-E

Sound mixing: The Dark Knight

Visual effects: Iron Man

Writing (Adapted screenplay): The Reader

Writing (Original screenplay): In Bruges
posted 39 weeks ago
Interesting Q mork.
posted 39 weeks ago
I wonder if the list was leaked by the Academy, with intentional errors, to create a massive publicity stunt. We all know that audience viewing numbers in the past several years have been dropping. Someone may have felt this would be a neat way to gain a larger rating. I sense a conspiracy here.
posted 39 weeks ago
  4 jltnol
Hey folks... get over your fairyland ending of the Oscars... LOTS of people know the answers.... There is, no doubt, a list already of winners and losers...

I've worked on lots of different events like this and there is far, far, far too much prep work that has to be done based on who the winners are, so trust me... the list is most likely real.
posted 39 weeks ago
@jltnol
Well if you plunk that $1,000 you've got on "100% Accurate" right now you'll jump up to $8664. Let's see you do it....."so trust me," you said.
posted 39 weeks ago
  6 johnnyboy
But, if this list actually is genuine, then there is no doubt that the Academy will have changed its winners just so that it doesn't match this list.
posted 39 weeks ago
What I am saying is that the false list was altered from the get go. Or like jonnyboy says, it was changed after the fact. Hmmmm.

Actually I believe it is a fair list pick like it has always been . The winners will emerge as favorites and winning longshots.....................................Like always.
posted 39 weeks ago
  8 scary
Loving the pic for this question!
posted 39 weeks ago
thing is, even if it is a fake i reckon most of them on there will be right..
posted 39 weeks ago
  10 ladylara
Slight interesting tweek- What is the difference between "100%" and "more than 20 of 24 correct" if all 24 are, indeed, correct? I've alerted the bosses to ask this.. But the whole thing is really fascinating!
posted 39 weeks ago
@ladylara - I'd like to think its apparent that the two options should be read as mutually exclusive, but I have added a note to make that clear. Thanks for the flag.
posted 39 weeks ago
  12 andrewdb
Academy statement denying it, it's probably real.
posted 39 weeks ago
Well what are they going to say? " Oops, ya got us, but hey, watch anyhow..".
posted 39 weeks ago
It sorta looks like it's the Under 21 option
posted 39 weeks ago
  15 tisha[Admin]
Yeah - just off the top of my head i can pick loads that were wrong.
posted 39 weeks ago
  16 sqlman[Admin]
I count 9 of 15 right, or 37.5%. I could have done better throwing a dart... ;)

Actor in a leading role: Mickey Rourke ----- WRONG
Actor in a supporting role: Heath Ledger ----- CORRECT
Actress in a leading role: Kate Winslet ----- CORRECT
Actress in a supporting role: Amy Adams ----- WRONG
Animated Feature Film: Wall-E ----- CORRECT
Art Direction: The Dark Knight ----- WRONG
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire ----- CORRECT
Costume Design: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ----- WRONG
Directing: Slumdog Millionaire ----- CORRECT
Documentary feature: Man on Wire ----- CORRECT
Documentary short: The Conscience of Nhem En ----- WRONG
Film editing: Milk ----- WRONG
Foreign language film: Departures ----- CORRECT
Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ----- CORRECT
Music (Score): Defiance ----- WRONG
Music (Song): Down to Earth (Wall-E) ----- WRONG
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire ----- CORRECT
Short film (animated): Presto ----- WRONG
Short film (live action): Auf Der Strecke (On The Line) ----- WRONG
Sound editing: Wall-E ----- WRONG
Sound mixing: The Dark Knight ----- WRONG
Visual effects: Iron Man ----- WRONG
Writing (Adapted screenplay): The Reader ----- WRONG
Writing (Original screenplay): In Bruges ----- WRONG
posted 39 weeks ago
Grr. Sure wish I had noticed sqlman's helpful list here before looking up all the other answers myself! Yeah, that was a pretty inaccurate list!
posted 39 weeks ago

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