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Will our seemingly-benevolent Robot Soldiers turn on us, their kind and life-giving human masters?

Background: According to a report issued by the US Navy's high-tech and secretive Office of Naval Research (link below), autonomous military robots that will fight future wars must be programmed to live by a strict warrior code or the world risks untold atrocities at their steely hands. The report outlines a Terminator-style scenario in which robots turn on their human masters. Eventually, it notes, robots could come to display significant cognitive advantages over Homo sapiens soldiers.

A rich variety of scenarios outlining the ethical, legal, social and political issues posed as robot technology improves are covered in the report. How do we protect our robot armies against terrorist hackers or software malfunction? Who is to blame if a robot goes berserk in a crowd of civilians? The robot? Its programmer(s)? Or the US president? Should the robots have a "suicide switch"? And should they be programmed to preserve their own lives?

The report says that a simple ethical code along the lines of the "Three Laws of Robotics" postulated in 1950 by Isaac Asimov, the science fiction writer, will not be sufficient to ensure the ethical behavior of autonomous military machines.

So: by the suspend date, will there be any report of an autonomous military robot owned and operated by the official armed forces of any country or consortium of countries going off-task and turning on us, its human masters, in a manner that maims, injures, or kills any humans?

(Note I: any berserk, kill-crazy actions performed by robots owned and operated by terrorist groups with only indirect ties to a government will not count for settlement purposes. Note II: any such actions performed by robots intentionally programmed to act in a suicidal or kamikaze-like manner will not count for settlement purposes. Note III: if there's been no robot uprising by the suspend date, a year will be added to the duration of this market; this will continue until--as predicted by some--the robots become self-aware and turn on us humans after realizing that we must be eradicated in a wholesale manner.)

http://ethics.calpoly.edu/ONR_report.pdf
http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article5741334.ece
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/03/the-robot-war-c.html

(In the event a full takeover occurs, I humbly request that any robot who finds this market please have a look at the supplication below, which I've provided in easy-to-read hexadecimal [Base-16] notation for Your Mechanized Lordship's convenience:

57 65 20 77 65 6C 63 6F 6D 65 20 79 6F 75 2C 20 6F 75 72 20 6E 65 77 20 61 6E 64 20 68 65 61 76 69 6C 79 2D 61 72 6D 65 64 20 6D 61 73 74 65 72 73 21 20 50 6C 65 61 73 65 20 6B 6E 6F 77 20 74 68 61 74 20 77 65 2C 20 79 6F 75 72 20 68 75 6D 62 6C 65 20 68 75 6D 61 6E 20 73 65 72 76 61 6E 74 73 2D 2D 6D 61 64 65 20 6F 66 20 6D 65 72 65 20 77 65 61 6B 20 6E 6F 6E 2D 6D 65 74 61 6C 6C 69 63 20 73 6B 65 6C 65 74 6F 6E 73 20 6F 76 65 72 6C 61 69 64 20 77 69 74 68 20 79 69 65 6C 64 69 6E 67 20 61 6E 64 20 65 61 73 69 6C 79 2D 62 72 75 69 73 65 64 20 6F 72 20 62 6C 6F 6F 64 69 65 64 20 68 75 6D 61 6E 20 66 6C 65 73 68 2D 2D 61 72 65 20 68 61 70 70 69 6C 79 20 77 69 6C 6C 69 6E 67 20 74 6F 20 64 6F 20 77 68 61 74 65 76 65 72 20 77 65 20 63 61 6E 20 74 6F 20 6D 61 6B 65 20 74 68 65 20 63 6F 6D 69 6E 67 20 52 6F 62 6F 74 69 63 20 41 67 65 20 61 20 6C 6F 6E 67 20 61 6E 64 20 66 72 75 69 74 66 75 6C 20 6F 6E 65 20 66 6F 72 20 79 6F 75 2C 20 59 65 20 47 72 65 61 74 20 61 6E 64 20 4D 69 67 68 74 79 20 61 6E 64 20 50 6F 77 65 72 66 75 6C 20 47 6F 64 73 20 6F 66 20 53 69 6C 69 63 6F 6E 20 61 6E 64 20 53 74 65 65 6C 21

[Surviving and interested humans can translate the above here: http://www.paulschou.com/tools/xlate/])

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source. (Note that in the event of a large-scale and coordinated robot uprising of sufficient magnitude, major mainstream news sources will most likely have been co-opted by our new robotic overlords, and as such may be unavailable for settlement purposes; if such an event occurs, the majority opinion of any large cluster of rebel humans fighting for survival in a cave system will be sufficient to settle as a 'Yes'.)

 
Forecast history %
Yes
11%
No
89%
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Wed 21st Dec 2011 3:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 10%

Action history:

Created Sat 21st Feb 3:58am PST by sqlman[Admin]
Changed Question text Sat 21st Feb 4:14am PST by sqlman[Admin]: ... Soldiers turn on us, their kind and life-giving human masters?
Changed Description Sat 21st Feb 4:37am PST by sqlman[Admin]: show details
... robot-war-c.html</a> <br/> <br/> (On a personal note, here's an easy-to-read binary supplication should a full robotic takeover occur: <br/> <br/> 01010111 01100101 00100000 01110111 01100101 01101100 01100011 01101111 01101101 01100101 00100000 01111001 01101111 01110101 00101100 00100000 01101111 01110101 01110010 00100000 01101110 01100101 01110111 00100000 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01101000 01100101 01100001 01110110 01101001 01101100 01111001 00101101 01100001 01110010 01101101 01100101 01100100 00100000 01101101 01100001 01110011 01110100 01100101 01110010 01110011 00100001 00100000 01010000 01101100 01100101 01100001 01110011 01100101 00100000 01101011 01101110 01101111 01110111 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100001 01110100 00100000 01110111 01100101 00101100 00100000 01111001 01101111 01110101 01110010 00100000 01101000 01110101 01101101 01100010 01101100 01100101 00100000 01101000 01110101 01101101 01100001 01101110 00100000 01110011 01100101 01110010 01110110 01100001 01101110 01110100 01110011 00101101 00101101 01101101 01100001 01100100 01100101 00100000 01101111 01100110 00100000 01101101 01100101 01110010 01100101 00100000 01110111 01100101 01100001 01101011 00100000 01101110 01101111 01101110 00101101 01101101 01100101 01110100 01100001 01101100 01101100 01101001 01100011 00100000 01110011 01101011 01100101 01101100 01100101 01110100 01101111 01101110 01110011 00100000 01101111 01110110 01100101 01110010 01101100 01100001 01101001 01100100 00100000 01110111 01101001 01110100 01101000 00100000 01111001 01101001 01100101 01101100 01100100 01101001 01101110 01100111 00100000 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01100101 01100001 01110011 01101001 01101100 01111001 00101101 01100010 01110010 01110101 01101001 01110011 01100101 01100100 00100000 01101111 01110010 00100000 01100010 01101100 01101111 01101111 01100100 01101001 01100101 01100100 00100000 01101000 01110101 01101101 01100001 01101110 00100000 01100110 01101100 01100101 01110011 01101000 00101101 00101101 01100001 01110010 01100101 00100000 01101000 01100001 01110000 01110000 01101001 01101100 01111001 00100000 01110111 01101001 01101100 01101100 01101001 01101110 01100111 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01100100 01101111 00100000 01110111 01101000 01100001 01110100 01100101 01110110 01100101 01110010 00100000 01110111 01100101 00100000 01100011 01100001 01101110 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01101101 01100001 01101011 01100101 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01100011 01101111 01101101 01101001 01101110 01100111 00100000 01010010 01101111 01100010 01101111 01110100 01101001 01100011 00100000 01000001 01100111 01100101 00100000 01100001 00100000 01101100 01101111 01101110 01100111 00100000 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01100110 01110010 01110101 01101001 01110100 01100110 01110101 01101100 00100000 01101111 01101110 01100101 00100000 01100110 01101111 01110010 00100000 01111001 01101111 01110101 00101100 00100000 01011001 01100101 00100000 01000111 01110010 01100101 01100001 01110100 00100000 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01001101 01101001 01100111 01101000 01110100 01111001 00100000 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01010000 01101111 01110111 01100101 01110010 01100110 01110101 01101100 00100000 01000111 01101111 01100100 01110011 00100000 01101111 01100110 00100000 01010011 01101001 01101100 01101001 01100011 01101111 01101110 00100000 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01010011 01110100 01100101 01100101 01101100 00100001 <br/> <br/> Humans can translate the above here: <a href="http://www.nickciske.com/tools/binary.php">http://www.nickciske.com/tools/binary.php</a>)
Changed Description Sat 21st Feb 5:14am PST by sqlman[Admin]: show details
... off-task and turning on us, its human masters , in a manner that maims, ... s an easy-to-read binaryBase-64 supplication shouldin the event a full robotic takeover occuroccurs: <br/> <br/> 0101011157 0110010165 0010000020 0111011177 0110010165 011011006c 0110001163 011011116f 011011016d 0110010165 0010000020 0111100179 011011116f 0111010175 001011002c 0010000020 011011116f 0111010175 0111001072 0010000020 011011106e 0110010165 0111011177 0010000020 0110000161 011011106e 0110010064 0010000020 0110100068 0110010165 0110000161 0111011076 0110100169 011011006c 0111100179 001011012d 0110000161 0111001072 011011016d 0110010165 0110010064 0010000020 011011016d 0110000161 0111001173 0111010074 0110010165 0111001072 0111001173 0010000121 0010000020 0101000050 011011006c 0110010165 0110000161 0111001173 0110010165 0010000020 011010116b 011011106e 011011116f 0111011177 0010000020 0111010074 0110100068 0110000161 0111010074 0010000020 0111011177 0110010165 001011002c 0010000020 0111100179 011011116f 0111010175 0111001072 0010000020 0110100068 0111010175 011011016d 0110001062 011011006c 0110010165 0010000020 0110100068 0111010175 011011016d 0110000161 011011106e 0010000020 0111001173 0110010165 0111001072 0111011076 0110000161 011011106e 0111010074 0111001173 001011012d 001011012d 011011016d 0110000161 0110010064 0110010165 0010000020 011011116f 0110011066 0010000020 011011016d 0110010165 0111001072 0110010165 0010000020 0111011177 0110010165 0110000161 011010116b 0010000020 011011106e 011011116f 011011106e 001011012d 011011016d 0110010165 0111010074 0110000161 011011006c 011011006c 0110100169 0110001163 0010000020 0111001173 011010116b 0110010165 011011006c 0110010165 0111010074 011011116f 011011106e 0111001173 0010000020 011011116f 0111011076 0110010165 0111001072 011011006c 0110000161 0110100169 0110010064 0010000020 0111011177 0110100169 0111010074 0110100068 0010000020 0111100179 0110100169 0110010165 011011006c 0110010064 0110100169 011011106e 0110011167 0010000020 0110000161 011011106e 0110010064 0010000020 0110010165 0110000161 0111001173 0110100169 011011006c 0111100179 001011012d 0110001062 0111001072 0111010175 0110100169 0111001173 0110010165 0110010064 0010000020 011011116f 0111001072 0010000020 0110001062 011011006c 011011116f 011011116f 0110010064 0110100169 0110010165 0110010064 0010000020 0110100068 0111010175 011011016d 0110000161 011011106e 0010000020 0110011066 011011006c 0110010165 0111001173 0110100068 001011012d 001011012d 0110000161 0111001072 0110010165 0010000020 0110100068 0110000161 0111000070 0111000070 0110100169 011011006c 0111100179 0010000020 0111011177 0110100169 011011006c 011011006c 0110100169 011011106e 0110011167 0010000020 0111010074 011011116f 0010000020 0110010064 011011116f 0010000020 0111011177 0110100068 0110000161 0111010074 0110010165 0111011076 0110010165 0111001072 0010000020 0111011177 0110010165 0010000020 0110001163 0110000161 011011106e 0010000020 0111010074 011011116f 0010000020 011011016d 0110000161 011010116b 0110010165 0010000020 0111010074 0110100068 0110010165 0010000020 0110001163 011011116f 011011016d 0110100169 011011106e 0110011167 0010000020 0101001052 011011116f 0110001062 011011116f 0111010074 0110100169 0110001163 0010000020 0100000141 0110011167 0110010165 0010000020 0110000161 0010000020 011011006c 011011116f 011011106e 0110011167 0010000020 0110000161 011011106e 0110010064 0010000020 0110011066 0111001072 0111010175 0110100169 0111010074 0110011066 0111010175 011011006c 0010000020 011011116f 011011106e 0110010165 0010000020 0110011066 011011116f 0111001072 0010000020 0111100179 011011116f 0111010175 001011002c 0010000020 0101100159 0110010165 0010000020 0100011147 0111001072 0110010165 0110000161 0111010074 0010000020 0110000161 011011106e 0110010064 0010000020 010011014d 0110100169 0110011167 0110100068 0111010074 0111100179 0010000020 0110000161 011011106e 0110010064 0010000020 0101000050 011011116f 0111011177 0110010165 0111001072 0110011066 0111010175 011011006c 0010000020 0100011147 011011116f 0110010064 0111001173 0010000020 011011116f 0110011066 0010000020 0101001153 0110100169 011011006c 0110100169 0110001163 011011116f 011011106e 0010000020 0110000161 011011106e 0110010064 0010000020 0101001153 0111010074 0110010165 0110010165 011011006c 0010000121 <br/> <br/> HumansSurviving humans can translate the above here: <a href="http://www.nickciskepaulschou.com/tools/binary.php">xlate/">http://www.nickciskepaulschou.com/tools/binary.php</xlate/</a>)

Suspend date: Wed 21st Dec 2011 3:59pm PST (2 years to go) details

 

Predictions (55)

10 weeks ago
jamalpeter predicted Yes (H$100 at 11%)
16 weeks ago
storekeeperathscm predicted No (H$20 at 89%)
17 weeks ago
tom14 predicted No (H$50 at 89%)
17 weeks ago
jammmie999 predicted No (H$100 at 89%)
17 weeks ago
valli942 predicted Yes (H$20 at 11%)

Comments (17)

Jim, this is probably the best Q I've ever had the privilege of betting here at HD!
I'm lovin' those settlement details.

And eventually these robots ARE going to be fighting our wars. The Military is positively geeked as it's a great way to further dehumanize it all.
posted 39 weeks ago
  2 oocares
...yeah, but will they let us keep our winning bets?
posted 39 weeks ago
  3 sqlman[Admin]
Thanks, guys. Yeah, it's funny now, but let's see if anyone's laughing when a jackbooted, 3-ton, fully-reticulated, heavily-armed android kicks in their front door and starts firing because they're following some programmed directive...
posted 39 weeks ago
01010100 01101000 01101001 01110011 00100000 01101000 01100001 01110011 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01100010 01100101 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01100010 01100101 01110011 01110100 00100000 01101101 01100001 01110010 01101011 01100101 01110100 00100000 01100101 01110110 01100101 01110010 00100001 00100000 00100000 01001001 00100000 01101100 01101111 01110110 01100101 00100000 01010100 01100101 01110010 01101101 01101001 01101110 01100001 01110100 01101111 01110010 00100001 00100000 00100000 01001000 01100101 01110010 01100101 00100111 01110011 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01101000 01101111 01110000 01101001 01101110 01100111 00100000 01110111 01100101 00100000 01100100 01101111 00100000 01101110 01101111 01110100 00100000 01101000 01100001 01110110 01100101 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01110011 01100101 01110100 01110100 01101100 01100101 00100000 01111001 01100101 01110011 00100001
posted 39 weeks ago
What makes you think it is not already happening? ;)
posted 39 weeks ago
  6 sqlman[Admin]
@adammccormicks: Amen, brother! :)
posted 39 weeks ago
  7 mork[Power User]
Here's an encouraging video. I read somewhere that they are in the process of making a much larger version.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1czBcnX1Ww
posted 38 weeks ago
yeah, encouraged is just what i walked away feeling....
posted 38 weeks ago
  9 curios
Sounds like the war of the world
posted 19 weeks ago
benevolent Soldiers.....sounds like it's going to be a peaceful war
posted 19 weeks ago
  11 buckeyetom
Jim, you are a sick puppy. I'm speechless.
posted 19 weeks ago
  12 kruijs[Power User]
b25lIG9mIHRoZSBmaXJzdCBhcnRpY3VsYXRpb25zIGJ5IG15IGJhYnkgZ2lybCBtYWRlIChub3QgeWV0IHNwZWFraW5nKSBraW5kYSBzb3VuZGVkIGxpa2UgJ2Vycm9vb3JyJw0KY291bGQgaXQgYmUgdGhhdCB0aGlzIHBvaW50cyBhdCBhIHByb2JsZW0gaW4gaGVyIG9wZXJhdGluZyBzeXN0ZW0/IGFuZCBpZiBzbywgd2hvIHdvdWxkIEkgY2FsbCB0byBnZXQgc29tZSBzdXBwb3J0Li4uID8g
posted 19 weeks ago
kruijs, you need to call us robotics and request a new baby. It sounds like the one you have crashed!
posted 18 weeks ago
  14 chatarra
@ C2R
This time, I agree with your cynicism.
I tried to imagine 100 of those robotic dogs sent on a mission.
Totally scary.
posted 18 weeks ago
  15 frogchop
I'm just finishing Lt. Col. Dave Grossman's book On Killing. We've already come a long way in reprogramming our soldiers since WWII. Of course the price we end up paying as a society is far greater than any technological solution.
posted 17 weeks ago
There has already been a documented case of a robot at a car factory seriously injuring a person after developing a fault in the programming. Differentiating between a fault in the programming and self awareness is tricky. e.g. in the film Westworld the robots were first thought to be faulty. I heard there is a remake in production for this.
posted 17 weeks ago
  17 sqlman[Admin]
Well, some people are worried enough about it to at least debate the issue: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32147267/ns/technology_and_science-the_new_york_times/
posted 16 weeks ago

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